Yards Per Gretch: Week 5
Ben Gretch, Editor in Chief of Fantasy Insiders, takes an ultra-high resolution look at the upcoming NFL week. If you haven’t yet been introduced to Ben’s level of thinking, get ready for great takes loaded with analytical insight.
Week 5
We’re a quarter of the way through the season and have the data in hand to make stronger predictions on what we’ll see going forward. Scoring is up, and Week 5 provides plenty of shootouts for us to choose from. We want plenty of exposure to the clear top options in those games, but there are also some guys who have yet to have a big game in 2018 that are worth looking at. I always want to keep an eye on potential contrarian value in hitting on the bounce-back of an under-performer. Let’s get to the picks.
Exploitable Situations
David Johnson @SF
There are a lot of good RB plays this week. I love Christian McCaffrey. James Conner and Joe Mixon both look like strong plays. T.J. Yeldon has been playing further ahead of Corey Grant than I think most realize, because of the one Week 2 game where Grant saw more targets. But I’ve been waiting for a good spot to fade the Cardinals historically low early-season play volume, and while it may not be for the faint of heart, I’m not missing the opportunity to play Johnson at $6300 on DraftKings.
The concern about Mike McCoy’s play-calling and Johnson’s usage is warranted. Far more concerning has been the Cardinals’ play volume, and that is trending the right direction. Across 34 passes, Josh Rosen has a 9.5 aDOT, well beyond Sam Bradford’s 6.4 number. Per the NFL’s NextGen stats, Rosen’s time to throw in Week 4 was 2.95 seconds, fourth highest. Bradford has the league’s third-lowest time to throw for the season at 2.51 seconds. These are relevant stats because Bradford was visibly unwilling to stand in the pocket and deliver the ball down the field, limiting the offense’s ability to achieve first downs and sustain drives.
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