Yards Per Gretch: Week 9

by Ben Gretch (gretch) Last Updated 2018-11-04 13:24:27 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

Ben Gretch, Editor in Chief of Fantasy Insiders, takes an ultra-high resolution look at the upcoming NFL week. If you haven’t yet been introduced to Ben’s level of thinking, get ready for great takes loaded with analytical insight.

Week 9

Week 9 promises to be a fun slate, though I’m trending toward eating plenty of chalk. Rookies Courtland Sutton and D.J. Moore are poised to break out, the Rams are headed to New Orleans for a game with huge fantasy and playoff implications, and David Johnson is on a bye so I’m a lock for increased profitability. Let’s get to the picks.

Exploitable Situations

Everyone in LAR @ NO

This is only a slight exaggeration. Not only does this game carry a huge total, and not only should it be a close enough matchup to increase the play volume and fantasy scoring on both sides, but these are two of the most concentrated offenses in the league.

Rams’ skill position players have totaled the second-most PPR points of any team, behind only the Chiefs. Despite Cooper Kupp missing time and Josh Reynolds producing two scores last week in his absence, their core four players have accounted for a league-high 85.5% of that huge fantasy point total. You can rewind to the Thursday night clash with Minnesota for an example of each of the four posting at least 100 yards and a score in the same game. With Kupp back for a contest that should similarly feature plenty of offense, knowing nearly all of that production will flow through Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, or Kupp makes all four strong plays.

New Orleans incorporates ancillary pieces only slightly more. Looking at a similar metric, only the Steelers had a higher percentage of fantasy scoring concentrated to their top three skill position producers in 2017 than the Saints. Mark Ingram was of course one of those pieces, and the Saints were powered by Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas while he was suspended. Since his return, though, the Saints have looked more like the 2017 iteration of the team, with Drew Brees notably throwing no more than 30 passes in any of the three games.