Opportunity: On Base Percentage (OBP %), Reasonable Predictability, and Setting an OBP % Baseline
As I’ve mentioned previously during the introduction, there’s no denying the fact that the home run is the crème de la crème of the statistical baseball world when it comes to DFS play; however, the stolen base is a close second in my world due to the overlooked value that some, if not most, dismiss. What about the triple, you say? Nah, it’s almost impossible to plan for a three-bagger when building a lineup.
I’m sure you would agree with me, without even arguing, that in order for a runner to steal a base he must actually get on base. Obvious, I know, but it needed to be stated. Correlating potential base-stealing thieves with on base percentage (OBP %) gives DFS owners some reasonable predictability. The stolen base accounts for the second-most fantasy points in a DFS lineup (tied with doubles), not including the unpredictable and whacky triple; however, keep in mind most base stealers give you the bonus of being able to stretch doubles into triples. So what does that mean? It means you can actually get away with targeting powerless speedsters at times in the right circumstances.
It’s true there are some base stealers that make you scratch your head (ahem, Billy Hamilton) when it comes to their horrific OBP, although most have a solid ratio that falls parallel with their stealing abilities.
So, what’s a good OBP level to target when considering one speedster over another? Let’s first look at total league OBP over the past five seasons:
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