Reverse Line Movement
When I see a strong reverse line move, it’s a massive red flag. That flag is so big that I will take any players from the “wrong” side out of all my lineups (cash or GPP), no matter how appealing the matchup looks on paper. This lesson will be about how to identify reverse line moves and why they are so crucial.
First, we need some definitions. The key to seeing reverse line moves is knowing which side the “public,” or the “square bettors” is on. One unscientific way to do this is to ask 20 of your friends at the bar who they think will cover – not win – a game. Similarly, you can see what the faces in the paper or the talking heads on ESPN are picking. If everyone is on the same side, chances are that’s the “public side.”
Of course, we need to be more scientific about things. The website SportsInsights.com tracks how many tickets are written on each side of a game. A less accurate but still effective way to see which side the public likes is the consensus numbers on Covers.com. For something to truly be a “public” play, I believe at least 70 percent of tickets needs to be on that side. To be clear, we are tracking tickets written on a game – not money bet.
Once we identify that the public loves a certain side, we can start tracking the line movement. If the line moves toward the side that 70 percent of bettors are on, it’s as expected. Bookmakers are going to push the line up so they can induce some money on the other side. These kind of standard moves are not worth reacting to when building DFS lineups.
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