FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook have released a wide range of 2019 college football win totals. We’ve already taken a look at 2019 College Football Win Totals for the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners and 2019 College Football Win Totals for the Baylor Bears and Texas Tech Red Raiders. Now we shift our focus to bring you college football betting tips as we look at the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and a possible arbitrage opportunity from two online sports betting sites.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Over/Under 9.5 Wins , +5000 to Win National Championship (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come off a season where they were on the right side of several close games, helping Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff with a 12-0 regular season record. Those close games included a 24-17 win against Michigan, 24-16 performance against Ball State and a five-point victory over Vanderbilt in the first three weeks of the season.
Following the close calls against obviously inferior opponents, head coach Brian Kelly made a switch behind center, turning to sophomore Ian Book to ignite the offense. Book did just that, completing 68 percent of his throws for 19 touchdowns and just seven interceptions, as the Irish swept their remaining opponents by an average of 24 points per game. These are the type of decisions that have helped Kelly lead Notre Dame to three double-digit winning regular seasons dating back to 2012.
Book, who is currently +2000 to win the Heisman Trophy, returns in 2019 but without his leading receiver Miles Boykin. Chris Finke and Chase Claypool return as two receivers who combined for 99 catches, but Notre Dame will still need to find a big-play target to pick up where Boykin left off, especially considering how much Notre Dame struggled to run the ball.
Despite playing games against Georgia and Michigan away from South Bend, the Irish have a manageable schedule. In fact, according to Bill Connelly’s S&P+ metric, they’ll be a double-digit favorite in nine of their 12 games, starting the season as 20-point favorites against Louisville at DraftKings. The problem is if they fail to upset Georgia or Michigan, they’re already down to a max of 10 wins. All it takes is a slip-up against a team like USC, Duke, or Stanford on the road in the last game of the season to win Under 9.5 games. In their matchup against Georgia, they’re 11.5-point underdogs at FanDuel. Against Michigan, DraftKings lists them as 6.5-point underdogs, and they’re just 4-point favorites against Stanford at both shops.
If you’re interested in the Over and 9.5 is too high for you, then you can grab Over 8.5 at FanDuel with increased vig ( -184). Or a more interesting play might be to use the two lines for a middle.
The Middle At Hand
According to Notre Dame’s S&P+ projected win percentages, the Irish are projected to win nine games. In fact, they have a 30.8 percent chance to do exactly that, which translates to +225 implied odds.
Put it this way, if you bet $184 to win $100 on Over 8.5 at FanDuel and $143 to win $100 on Under 9.5 at DraftKings, you’re risking at most $84 to win $200 on exactly 9 wins– implied odds of +238 — because you can’t lose both both bets. In this case, you can’t guarantee yourself a profit or even eliminate risk entirely, but if you trust S&P+’s numbers, then there’s value in middling the two lines.
If you prefer to take just one of the sides, then the value on the Under is at DraftKings (Under 9.5, -143) and the value on the Over is at FanDuel (Over 8.5, -184), even when taking into account the increased vig.
Once again, if you’re looking for general NCAA betting tips, please refer to our College Football Betting Guide.