The New England Patriots Have Faced The Harshest Weather Conditions Over The Last 10 Years
With the NFL season kicking off, we thought it’d be fun to explore which teams have faced the toughest weather conditions, and—surprise, surprise—the New England Patriots came out on top.
Weather is a big factor in football. Cold, wind, rain, or snow can affect everything—from how the ball moves to how players perform. It really comes down to which team can adapt best to the elements.
Kevin Roth, Chief Meteorologist at RotoGrinders, will also share his insights on how certain teams have handled tough weather and how weather can seriously impact the NFL game throughout the article.
Thanks to our data team, we were able to create a scoring system that ranks teams based on how challenging their weather conditions have been.
For teams that play in a dome, we applied a reduction factor since they’re shielded from harsh weather. Dome games get a factor of 0.5, while non-dome games get a factor of 1. So, the adjusted weather score is calculated as: Weather Score x Adjusted Factor.
Here’s how the scoring system works:
1. Sky Score: Weather conditions like heavy snow or thunderstorms get high scores, while clear skies score lower.
2. Temperature Score: Extreme cold, like below 32°F, gets the highest scores, while milder temps score lower.
3. Final Weather Score: We combined the Sky Score and Temperature Score to get an overall Weather Score for each game, showing how tough the weather was.
We then took games with a Weather Score of 4 or higher and classified them as “tough weather” games. From there, we looked at how many wins each team had in those conditions to see who performs best in the harshest environments.
We normalized the Weather Score by dividing it by the number of tough weather games each team played. We also adjusted the win percentage based on the number of games played to balance out smaller sample sizes. The final result is a Composite Score, which combines both the normalized Weather Score and weighted win percentage, giving us a clear view of which teams excel in tough weather.
Top 5 Teams That Endured the Worst Weather Conditions Since 2014
The New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Buffalo Bills represent the top five NFL teams that face the toughest weather conditions. These teams are known for battling through extreme weather, and their performance in these harsh conditions has been quantified with a composite score.#
The average composite score for these five teams is 2.78, with the New England Patriots leading at 2.51, and the Buffalo Bills at the lower end with a composite score of 2.41.
Note: The higher the Sky Score and Temperature Score, the tougher the weather is. The Tough Weather Score is on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the toughest.
The Patriots have a 57% success rate in tough weather conditions, boasting a Sky Score of 15 and a Temperature Score of 20. Their Tough Weather Score stands at 5.
In second place, the Broncos face similarly harsh weather with a 43% success rate. They match the Patriots with a Sky Score of 15 and a Temperature Score of 20, also earning a Tough Weather Score of 5.
Among these top five teams, the Steelers have the highest success rate in tough weather, winning 75% of their eight games under challenging conditions. Their Sky Score is 16, and their Temperature Score is 39, leading to a Tough Weather Score of 4.9.
On the opposite end, the Browns struggle the most, with an 11% success rate in tough weather. Out of nine games, they’ve only won one. Despite a Sky Score of 19 and a Temperature Score of 26, their Tough Weather Score still hits a maximum of 5.
Despite having the highest Sky Score (25) and Temperature Score (37) among the top five, the Bills maintain a strong 69% success rate in tough weather, with a Tough Weather Score of 4.7.
Kevin Roth, chief meteorologist at RotoGrinders, explains, “No doubt part of that success is attributed to having a QB who is physically built for “bad weather” games. To have success in ugly weather, you want a QB with a strong arm who can also move the chains with his legs when needed. Josh Allen is the prototype of that kind of QB.”
Chicago Bears Plays Most Games In Toughest Weather Conditions
In the past 10 years, 160 NFL games have been played in tough weather conditions, with the Chicago Bears participating in the most—17 of those games
Despite their high volume, they’ve only won 6 of these games, giving them a success rate of 35%. Their weather scores are: Sky score 29, Temperature score 50, and Tough Weather score 4.64.
In contrast, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, and Carolina Panthers have each played just one game in tough weather. Among them, only the Carolina Panthers managed to secure a win.
Check out what Kevin Roth, chief meteorologist at RotoGrinders, has to say about the Chicago Bears playing in the worst weather conditions:
“The Bears playing in the most bad weather games likely doesn’t come as much of a surprise to many folks. To me, the lack of success doesn’t either. People like to think that a team from a bad weather city like Chicago can perform well in bad weather, but the truth is that just like any other game, it comes down to the players on the field. When you look at the Bears over the past decade, they have dealt with incredible instability and (at times) incompetence at the quarterback position. That’s not a recipe for success in the NFL, no matter what the weather is.”
Top 5 Teams That Dodge the Toughest Weather Conditions
Over the last decade, the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, and Houston Texans have consistently managed to avoid the toughest weather conditions in the NFL. The average composite score for these five teams is 1.12, where a higher score means tougher weather.
The Arizona Cardinals have the lowest composite score among them, at 1.08. They’re so accustomed to mild weather that they struggle in tough conditions, with a 0% success rate from three games played in harsh weather. In those games, the sky score was 5, the temperature score was 8, and the overall tough weather score was 2.16.
The Los Angeles Rams, with a composite score of 1.09, are also used to milder weather but have managed to excel in tough conditions, winning all three of their games in such weather. Their sky score was 5, temperature score 8, and tough weather score 2.16.
Despite coming from a state known for tough weather, the Detroit Lions face relatively mild conditions with a composite score of 1.12. They’ve played 12 games in harsh weather, winning 7 for a 58% success rate. Their sky score was 18, temperature score 35, and the tough weather score was 2.2.
The Atlanta Falcons, similar to the Cardinals, have played in only three tough weather games and lost all of them, resulting in a 0% success rate. With a composite score of 1.16, their sky score was 5, temperature score 9, and tough weather score 2.3.
The Houston Texans also have a composite score of 1.16. They’ve played three games in tough weather and won one, giving them a 33% success rate. Their sky score for these games was 5, temperature score 9, and tough weather score 2.3.
Roth says: “It’s mostly a blessing to play in a dome. Avoiding the bad weather is great for putting up points and racking up fantasy numbers, but it has its drawbacks too. When the playoffs come around and they end up with an away game in a bad-weather city, do they have the experience in the elements to win a big game on the biggest stage?”
Methodology
The goal of this project was to determine how different weather conditions—such as sun, rain, snow, and temperature—affect NFL teams’ performance during the regular season, focusing on which teams play in the roughest weather and how well they perform. Data was collected over the past 10 years from NFLWeather for weather conditions and from Pro-Football-Reference for game results, covering regular season games from Week 1 to Week 18. For the full data set click [HERE].
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