10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for February 11th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Saturday, February 11th.
1. Last night, Draymond Green had one of the weirder stat lines in NBA history, becoming the first player ever to post a triple-double in rebounds, assists, and steals while scoring single digits in points. A few interesting notes about Draymond’s historic night:
- The 61.4 FanDuel points he put up is his highest output of the season, and the third-highest of his career.
- His 12 rebounds, 10 assists, and 10 steals marks just the second time in NBA history that a player recorded a triple-double with rebounds, assists, and steals (Alvin Robertson did it in 1986). Green is the first player to record a triple-double with solely those three categories, as Robertson scored 20 points in his performance.
- Previously, only one player had put up more than 50 FanDuel points with fewer than four actual points. That player, of course, was Draymond Green, who in a game last February posted 56.8 FanDuel points (14 rebounds, 14 assists, 6 steals, 4 blocks) while scoring just two actual points. His opponent in that game? The Oklahoma City Thunder, who he’ll see again on Saturday. While the peripherals always give Draymond a high floor, and while there should be plenty of opportunity for steals (the Thunder turn the ball over 15.1 times per game, the eighth-most in the league), it’s worth noting that in 23 career games against the OKC (including the playoffs), only three times has Green reached the 40 FanDuel points he’ll need to reach 5x value on his $8,000 FanDuel salary.
2. Steven Adams has double-doubled eight times in the 13 games since Enes Kanter left with his most recent injury; that’s the same number of double-doubles he recorded in the 44 games before Kanter went down. Since then, he’s averaging 35.6 minutes per game, which is second-most in the NBA among centers during that stretch (Anthony Davis is first, at 37.6 MPG). However, Adams’s recent history against Golden State is enough to give pause; since 2015-16 (including the playoffs), he’s averaging just 9.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks against the Warriors. He’s only exceeded 10 rebounds in three of 11 games, he’s never exceeded 16 points, and he’s been held to zero or one blocks in eight of those 11 games. Given his increased role, though, it seems likely that he can outperform those numbers tonight.
3. While we’re at it, here’s one more Adams note: since Kanter’s injury, he’s averaging 6.1 offensive rebounds per game; no other player is averaging more than 4.8 during that stretch.
4. Last night, in Jabari Parker absence, Giannis Antetokounmpo put up 20 shots en route to a career-high 41 points. In the 13 career games in which he has attempted 20+ shots, he has never been below 42 FanDuel points, and he’s reached 50+ FD points in 10 of those games. That’s probably not all that surprising; he’s a super-talented player who takes a ton of high-percentage shots (his 13.4 points per game in the paint lead the NBA). What is a bit surprising, though, is how likely it is that he starts to regularly put up 20 shots per game; he’s currently averaging 16.3 per game, and Parker was averaging 16 per game. If he picks up a quarter of the Parker’s shots, he’ll get there, which would make him an elite play nearly every time he takes the court.
5. Here are Russell Westbrook field goal percentages in his last 15 games against the Warriors (including playoffs) dating back to the 2014-15 season:
34.8
26.7
33.3
37.0
39.3
44.4
52.6
35.7
33.3
33.3
34.5
36.4
36.8
23.8
36.7
Not good. He’s just a 33.3 percent shooter against the Warriors in the regular season during that stretch, which is his lowest percentage against any opponent. Am I suggesting that fading Russ is a good idea? Of course not – whether or not he’s efficient, Westbrook will be productive based on sheer volume of workload. However, the poor shooting numbers are possibly enough to make him less of an auto-play even despite the pace-up matchup.
6. Without Danilo Gallinari this year, Wilson Chandler is averaging 20 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per game. The only players to match those numbers for the season are Giannis, Boogie, Durant, Blake, Harden, LeBron, Westbrook, and Towns. Defensively, his matchup tonight against the Cavs is a far cry from last night’s against the Knicks (who allow more points than any other team to opposing power forwards). But with Gallinari out again (not to mention Emmanuel Mudiay and Kenneth Faried being out, as well) Chandler should once again see a ton of minutes and heavy usage, making him one of the better plays on the slate.
7. Nikola Jokic allows opponents to shoot 62.5 percent from six feet from the basket or closer; that’s the worst mark in the NBA. This could come into play tonight, as the Nuggets take on LeBron James and the Cavs. LeBron ranks fourth in the NBA with 12.8 points in the paint this year. The top three on the list (Giannis, Towns, Whiteside) have faced the Nuggets a combined five times, and their success in the paint has led to massive big fantasy days: Giannis scored 43.1 FanDuel points; Towns put up 55.8, 44.2, and 58.9 FanDuel points; and Hassan Whiteside put up 54.7 FanDuel points.
8. Blake Griffin has already exceeded 50 FanDuel points three times in the month of February already. If he’s able to exceed 50 FanDuel points in just once more this month, he’ll have reached that mark four times in the same month for the first time since February 2014. Clearly, the absence of Chris Paul has been a boon to Griffin’s fantasy production, and he’s had a usage rate over 30 percent in five of his seven games since returning from injury. Despite the price rise (he’s up to $9,500 at FanDuel and $9,700 at DraftKings), if you’re playing at a site that includes the early slate, Griffin feels like a near-lock to reach value.
9. Tyler Johnson averages 10.6 fourth quarter minutes per game, more than any other player in the NBA. He doesn’t start, but he’s one of two reserves (min. 40 games on the bench) to average more than 30 minutes per game (Eric Gordon is the other), and he typically comes at low ownership given his bench role. With the Heat favored by just four on the road, it doesn’t look like their game against the Sixers will be a blowout, but Johnson’s fourth quarter role raises his floor in case the game does get out of hand (which is a possibility any time Joel Embiid is out, as he is today).
10. Trevor Ariza has four games of 4+ steals against the Suns since 2015-16; no other player has more than two games of four or more steals against Phoenix during that stretch. In fact, no player besides Ariza has four games of 4+ steals against ANY team during that stretch. While banking on four steals isn’t something we should ever do, it doesn’t feel that far out of reach given that the Suns play at a frantic pace (103.4 pace, fourth-highest in the NBA) and turn the ball over a ton (15.5 times per game, third-most in the NBA). Couple the steal upside with the fact that his minutes are as secure as anybody’s (he hasn’t dipped below 33 minutes per game in any single month since December 2015), and Ariza makes for a fine cash game play in a game with the highest total on the slate.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year (typically posted on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.