10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for February 25th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Saturday, February 25th.
1. John Stockton owns five of the top six pre-All-Star-Break assist totals, ranking 1st (679), 2nd (672), 4th (654), 5th (645), and 6th (630). The only non-Stockton player to crack the top six? It’s James Harden, whose 654 assists before the All-Star break this season tied Stockton for third-most ever by a player before the break. At 119 points, Harden and the Rockets have the second-highest implied team total, and while the spread is large (the Rockets are favored by 11), Harden has played 43 and 39 minutes the two times these teams have met this season, putting up 57.3 and 58.2 FanDuel points. Harden has to be considered the top raw points play on the day.
2. DeMarcus Cousins, in his Pelicans debut, crushed value, shooting 11-for-19 from the floor and totaling 68.2 FanDuel points. But before we assume that Boogie is supplanting Anthony Davis as the top option for the Pelicans, it’s worth noting that he had a usage rate of just 26.2 percent; in 55 games as a King this season, he was only below a 26.2 percent usage rate in one game. Even going further back, Cousins only had a usage rate below 26.2 in three out of his 120 games as a King since 2015-16. On the plus side, FanDuel has priced in the decline in usage, as Boogie’s price has dropped by $1,000(!) since his last game, making him much more playable.
3. Anthony Davis actually saw a usage boost in the first game of the Brow and Boogie era, with a usage rate of 38.6 against the Rockets. His merely adequate fantasy performance (46.3 FanDuel points, 48.25 DraftKings points) was caused by an abnormally poor shooting day; his 38.1 percent from the floor in that game was his ninth-lowest in a game this year (min. 20 minutes). In other words, it’s anyone’s guess which of the Pelicans’ two big men will have a bigger performance on Saturday, and guesswork is something we like to avoid in DFS.
4. Dario Saric has six games of 34+ FanDuel points this year (including each of his last five games), the same number as all other rookie forwards combined. In fact, if you go back 10 years, only three other rookie forwards besides Saric have put up 34+ FanDuel points five times in a single month: Kristaps Porzingis, Nikola Mirotic, Anthony Davis, and Blake Griffin. Saric’s price at FanDuel has inexplicably dropped $500 today, putting him in pretty close to must-play territory against a Knicks team that ranks second-to-last in the NBA in DvP against power forwards.
5. Robert Covington has eight games of 3+ steals since January 29th; no other player has more than five such games during that stretch. He’s eclipsed 39 FanDuel points in five of the last nine games he’s played, and he’s reached 4.5x value or higher in 15 of his past 20. Clearly the floor is there, and as he showed last night when he led all forwards with 48.7 FanDuel points against the Wizards, the ceiling is there, as well. Covington’s always a bit reliant on his shot, but even so, he makes for a fine play, even at his $6,800 price tag (the highest his salary has been since December 7th, 2015).
6. Terrence Ross shot 23.5 percent from the field in his last game; that’s his lowest shooting percentage in a game that’s he’s taken at least 10 shots since December of 2013. Even so, he hit 7.3x his value at FanDuel and 7.2x at DraftKings. We can assume pretty reasonably that he’ll shoot better in a matchup with the Hawks, who rank 28th in DvP against the small forward position and allow 10.3 three-pointers per game (third-most in the NBA). Ross is the can’t-miss value play du jour.
7. Kevin Love is still out with injury, and LeBron James is questionable with an illness. In 149 minutes with Kevin Love and LeBron James off the court this season, Kyrie Irving has a 47.2 percent usage rate. That is all.
8. Andrew Wiggins has shot the ball 213 times in February; only Russell Westbrook has attempted more field goals this month. He checks almost all the boxes as a great play today: high game total (227, second-highest on the slate), high usage (his 31.1% usage this month ranks second among forwards only to Kawhi Leonard), high projected minutes (he’s been at 37 minutes or more in eight of his last 10 games). Unfortunately, this all adds up to a high salary. While Wiggins can potentially be used in tournaments at DraftKings ($8,100), his FanDuel price tag ($8,700) is out of control. This is a classic case of buying high (which we want to avoid), as Wiggins has been as low as $5,900 this season. Of course, things have changed with Zach LaVine season-ending injury, and a price bump was always going to come with his increased usage, but there’s little to no value on his current price tag. All we can do is wait and hope that a string of poor shooting performances lowers Wiggins to a playable price point.
9. Since the beginning of February, only three centers are averaging 32+ minutes, 17+ points, and 6+ rebounds per game: Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, Marc Gasol, and…Frank Kaminsky. There are a lot of “ifs” to make this note relevant today: if you’re playing at the all-day slate (not advisable), if you’re playing the early-only slate or at a late swap site that includes the early game between the Hornets and Kings (such as Yahoo), and if Cody Zeller and Miles Plumlee remain out, then Kaminsky makes for a great play today.
10. With DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay, Omri Casspi, and Garrett Temple off the court, Willie Cauley-Stein averages 20.3 points, 9 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per 36 minutes this year. Only seven centers in the NBA have season-long per 36 numbers that match those: Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Marc Gasol, Rudy Gobert, Myles Turner, Hassan Whiteside, and Nikola Vucevic. In the first game of the post-Boogie era in Sacramento, Cauley-Stein didn’t waste any time establishing himself, putting up a career-best 29 points against the Nuggets. Charlotte is a bottom-five team in DvP, blocks allowed, and rebounds allowed to opposing centers; if WCS can be counted on for anything close to 30 minutes (he played 35 against Denver), he’s a must-play, although as with Kaminsky, you’ll have to be playing the early-only slate or at a site like Yahoo to take advantage of the plus matchup.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year (typically posted on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.