10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for January 30th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Monday, January 30th, 2017.
1. With 13 double-doubles this month, Karl-Anthony Towns is tied with James Harden for most in the NBA; he has as many as LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo combined during that span. If he is able to double-double against the Magic (which isn’t asking much, considering Orlando ranks in the bottom third of the NBA in both points and rebounds allowed to centers), he’ll be the first sophomore since Tim Duncan in 1999 to put up 14 double-doubles in any month.
2. While we’re at it, here’s one more Towns note. He’s had a nearly unprecedented month of January; he’s averaging 23.6 points, 13 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. The only other sophomore in NBA history to put up better than 23 points, 13 boards, and 3 assists in any month was Charles Barkley way back in 1986 (25.6 PPG, 14.8 RPG, 3.2 APG).
3. Since 2015-16, Brook Lopez has faced Hassan Whiteside and the Heat four times. His points-per-game average of 24.6 is his second-highest against any opponent during that span (min. four games played). Lopez’s price remains high at FanDuel ($7,500), but at DraftKings, he’s a much more affordable $6,500. Lopez is a tricky guy to roster, though, because his rebounding numbers can be nonexistent in any given game (more on this in note 4), making him risky for cash and lacking tournament upside.
4. Thanks to Brook Lopez’s ineptitude on the glass, the Brooklyn Nets allow 15.8 second-chance points per game to opposing centers, a mark that is BY FAR the highest in the NBA. In fact, the 1.7 points that separates them from the second-place Warriors (14.1 second-chance points per game allowed to opposing centers) is roughly the same distance that separates the Warriors from the Pelicans, who allow the 20th-most second-chance points per game to opposing centers. Expect a big game tonight from Hassan Whiteside and his 3.7 offensive rebounds per game (tied for third-best in the NBA) after a letdown in a difficult matchup against the Pistons, who surrender just 9.7 second-chance points allowed to opposing centers, the best mark in the NBA.
5. Seth Curry has made his recent bump in minutes count; since January 15th, there are only four guards in the NBA who can match or beat Curry’s line of 31.9 minutes, 15.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game. Those guards are James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and John Wall. That’s it. After becoming just the third guard this year to put up 20+ points, 10+ rebounds, and 5+ assists against the Spurs (Harden and Avery Bradley are the others), Curry has shown he can excel even in dicey matchups. On Monday, Deron Williams is out again, which means Curry will be charged with playing heavy minutes against a Cavs team that has been vulnerable against shooting guards all year (24th in DvP). His salary at FanDuel ($4,300) has yet to account for his increased role, making him a dangerous fade.
6. After making 12 three-pointers in his career prior to this season, Marc Gasol has made 70 this year. It’s probably not a +EV move to pay peak price for Gasol (he’s $9,000 at FanDuel), especially with so many attractive options available who are priced lower than him (Whiteside, Drummond, Lopez, Vucevic, Tristan Thompson). But it’s still interesting, and there’s a reason “possibly helpful” is in the title.
7. By Wednesday, Isaiah Thomas, who is averaging 32.3 points per game this month, could join Bob Cousy, Larry Bird, and Paul Pierce as only Celtics to average 32+ points per game in a month. He’ll certainly join Bird as the only Celtics player to average 30+ points per game in two months in the same season (Thomas averaged 30.2 points per game in December, as well). It’s so hard to pay $10,000 for a player as scoring-dependent as Thomas, but he just…keeps…scoring. The fact is, he’s scoring 34.9 points per game with Avery Bradley out of the lineup, so against Reggie Jackson and his -2.17 DRPM, Thomas offers upside on a slate lacking in stars.
8. Since January 11th, only four forwards (min. 4 games) have averaged better 18.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game: LeBron, Giannis, Durant, and…Jae Crowder. Crowder has been filling up the stat sheet in Al Horford and Avery Bradley’s absences. He doesn’t have a gimme price tag any longer (he’s up to $6,300 at FanDuel), but if those two remain out, he shouldn’t have trouble paying off his salary.
9. Zach Randolph has five games of 30+ minutes this month (including his last three in a row). Before January, he’d only exceeded 30 minutes in one game all season. Because of his bench role, Randolph is rarely highly owned even despite his recent boost in minutes, and tonight he faces a Suns team that is mediocre against power forwards, ranking 15th in DvP.
10. Goran Dragic isn’t often spoken of as a player with massive home/road splits, but this season, he’s been far more productive at American Airlines Arena, where he’s averaging 36 FanDuel points per game (compared to 30.8 on the road). At home against the Nets, who rank dead last in DvP against point guards, Dragic should emerge as the chalk as the day progresses.
and an extra….
11. Another Heat player who has thrived at home is Dion Waiters, whose 45.3 field goal percentage at home is far better than his 36.0 percent on the road. Couple that with the fact that Waiters recently torched this same Nets team for 40 FanDuel points (which, crazily enough, is just his fifth-highest FD point total of the year), and Waiters becomes another appealing option on the Heat, particularly if Tyler Johnson (questionable) remains out or limited.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.