10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for March 17th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Friday, March 17th.
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo has scored 69.4 and 64.6 FanDuel points in his last two games versus the Lakers. In his last game, his line of 41 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and 3 blocks has never been matched in a game against the Lakers, and only one player, Scottie Pippen, came close (40-8-5-3-3) in March of 1995. Giannis’s minutes have been down over the last two games (in part due to foul trouble), but in this matchup, it’s difficult to envision him falling too far short of reaching value.
2. In 11 starts this year, Brandon Jennings has averaged 16.3 PPG, 4 RPG, and 7.3 APG; the only point guards to average those numbers over the entire season this year are James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Chris Paul. He’s averaging 33 FanDuel points per game in those starts, and if John Wall is out, he could easily reach that number tonight against a Bulls team that has been giving out 30-FanDuel-point games like candy since the All-Star break (their 10 such games allowed is tied for the most in the NBA). On another night overflowing with value, Jennings might be the best value of them all at just $4,400 at FanDuel and $4,000 at DraftKings.
3. If, however, we get news that Wall is all systems go, he could be a sneaky tournament play, as he’s had massive success against the Bulls; in his last three meetings dating back to March 16, 2016, the second-most of any opponent he’s faced.
4. Rajon Rondo needs 28 points to reach 5x value; he’s reached that in nine out of ten games in which he’s played more than 34 minutes this year (including scores of 42.4, 40.2, and 50.0). He seems locked in at minutes in the mid-30s, seeing the floor for 35.9 and 34.5 minutes in his past two games. Tonight, he faces the Wizards in what should be a slightly paced-up matchup, and without Dwyane Wade on the floor, he could be asked to shoulder more of the offensive load than is typical.
5. If you want to pay up a bit at the point guard position, nobody has been more consistent lately than Ricky Rubio, who in March is averaging the highest points per game (11.1), the fourth-highest rebounds per game (5.3), and the highest assists per game (11.1) of any single month of his career. The matchup isn’t ideal, as the Heat have allowed 40+ FD points to a PG just 13 times this year, with only the Bucks (12) allowing fewer such games. But as long as Rubio keeps shooting (he’s reached double-figures in five straight games, a rarity for the pass-first point guard), his floor makes him cash game playable.
6. Over the past 10 games, Elfrid Payton has been Russell Westbrook Lite (okay, maybe Russell Westbrook Very Lite), averaging 12.4 points, 8.3 rebounds, 8.1 assists per game over his last 10; he’s the only other player besides Westbrook to average over eight assists and eight rebounds during that stretch. The Suns have been a sieve defensively against point guards, and it’s gotten worse as of late; since the All-Star break, their seven games of 40+ FanDuel points allowed to opposing point guard is most in the NBA. On a night when there could be value point guards in abundance (like, for example, Payton’s counterpart in this game, the Suns’ Tyler Ulis), Payton represents a fantastic and potentially low-owned GPP option.
7. Avery Bradley had an offensive rating of 145.9 in his last game, his highest mark in a game since March 20, 2016 (min. 30 minutes). He should have a monster game if he’s anywhere close to that efficient in today’s game against the Nets, who rank dead last in the NBA in DvP against shooting guards overall, including allowing 2.29 steals per game to the position, by far the worst in the NBA (the next-worst team, the Hawks, allow 2.00 per game). Like most of the Celtics, he’s been priced up a bit at FanDuel ($6,300, compared to $6,000 at DraftKings), but in a game where Isaiah Thomas will be watching from home, Bradley feels like one of the safest plays on the board.
8. One other beneficiary of Thomas’s absence could be Marcus Smart, who sees a five percent usage boost with Thomas off the floor this season. However, it’s worth noting that much of that has to do with Smart sometimes playing with the second unit. In the four games Isaiah Thomas has missed this year, Marcus Smart hasn’t had a usage above 20 percent in any of them, nor has he exceeded the 31.5 FanDuel points he would need to return 5x value. Smart’s value is derived in part from defensive stats (his 1.6 steals per game is second-most in the NBA among shooting guards), and Brooklyn turns the ball over 17 times per game, more than any team in the NBA. But in Thomas’s absence earlier in the year, Smart hasn’t been the lock-and-load fill-in option we might have hoped for, and his price tag ($6,300 at FanDuel) isn’t doing us any favors, either. At just $4,900 at DraftKings, he’s much safer.
9. In his last game, Devin Booker missed 20 shots, shooting just 23.1 percent from the field (6-for-26). That’s the lowest field goal percentage by a Suns player with 26+ shots since Jason Kidd also went 6-for-26 way back on December 21, 1999. Booker may not be the most efficient scorer on the floor, but with Eric Bledsoe shut down for the season, do we really need to care about efficiency? Devin Booker should see a massive uptick in usage: n an admittedly small sample of 139 minutes with Bledsoe off the floor and Tyler Ulis on, Booker has an obscene 38.7 percent usage rate. Phoenix seems to be intent on giving their young players all the minutes they can handle (he’s played 37+ minutes in four of his last five games), which means that Booker’s floor is as uncommonly high for someone as scoring-dependent as he tends to be.
10. Clint Capela has racked up 21 fouls in his last 70 minutes of game time against Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Even with Nene out, which should in theory free up a few more minutes for Capela, there’s little chance he doesn’t get into foul trouble in this one. However, if he does get into foul trouble and the Rockets are short on big men, it could open the door for a massive game from either Anthony Davis or DeMarcus Cousins. Since we have no clue who will benefit, both players remain better for tournaments.
BONUS: And here’s an extra stat that I debated even including since, in all honesty, probably means nothing: James Harden’s lowest and second-lowest point totals this season (10 and 13 points) have come in games when he’s played against DeMarcus Cousins.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year (typically posted on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.