10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for March 18th

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This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Saturday, March 18th.

1. Last night, James Harden had another 40-point triple-double, his sixth of the season and most overall by any player since 1984-85 (as far back as StatMuse’s data goes). For some perspective: Michael Jordan and LeBron James have combined for six 40-point triple-doubles over their entire careers, and Harden has six this season alone. In a game with one of the highest game totals of the year (at time of writing, the over/under is at 239.5), against a Denver team that ranks 28th in DvP against point guards and 23rd against shooting guards, Harden is as close to a must-play in cash games as you’ll find this year.

2. Speaking of triple-doubles, Nikola Jokic had his fifth triple-double in his last game against the Clippers, his third in the past seven games. Only two other centers in NBA history, Elmore Smith and Wilt Chamberlain, have more than five triple-doubles in a season. But what is remarkable about Jokic’s triple-doubles is that he gets them in quickly: four of his triple-doubles this season have come in under 33 minutes, and he’s the only center in NBA history with four total triple-doubles in fewer than 30 minutes. In fact, only two other players (shocker: they’re Westbrook and Harden) have more such games in a season. If this game stays close (and there’s a good chance it will, as the spread has Houston favored by just 2.5 points), Denver, who is trying to keep their hold on eighth playoff spot in the Western Conference, could need him to play increased minutes. In such a scenario, Jokic’s upside is through the roof, especially considering…

3. The Rockets have allowed three games of 60+ FD points to opposing centers; the rest of the teams in the NBA have only allowed two such peformances. Granted, those three centers weren’t slouches (Karl-Anthony Towns, DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis). But the Rockets have been vulnerable all year to big men, as their DvP indicates (they’re ranked 27th against centers and 25th against power forwards). Locking in both Jokic and Harden into your cash games seems like step one in fielding a competitive lineup tonight.

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4. Will Barton has played at least 32 minutes in nine games in 2017; in eight of those games, he has recorded 33 or more FanDuel points, and in eight of those games, he’s taken 15 or more shots. Over the past four weeks, Barton has averaged an insane 1.24 FanDuel points per minute with Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, and Darrell Arthur off the floor (in an admittedly tiny sample of 65 minutes), and despite both sites raising his price considerably (he’s not at $6,600 at FanDuel and $6,900 at DraftKings), his minutes are safe, and he should be one of the more popular options of the night.

Editor’s Note: LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love have all been ruled OUT for tonight’s matchup with the Clippers.

5. After his last game, in which he posted 33 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists in a tough matchup with the Jazz, LeBron James now has six games this season of 30+ points, 10+ rebounds, and 5+ assists; he had five such games combined in 2014-15 and 2015-16. With Kyrie Irving potentially sitting and Kevin Love potentially being on a minutes limit, James has been vaulted into “must-play” territory along with Harden and Jokic. The only question is whether there is enough value to fit in all three at FanDuel. One place to lock in a bit of value might be at point guard, since…

6. Jamal Murray has reached double-digits in points in nine of his last 10 games. Nuggets head coach Mike Malone insists on giving heavy minutes to Jameer Nelson, but so long as Murray sees upwards of 24 minutes (as he’s done in five out of eight games in March), he could be a path to fitting in some of today’s high-end players.

7. One high-priced player who might be worth avoiding is Giannis Antetokounmpo, who travels to Oakland to face the Golden State Warriors. At his current price tag, he would need to exceed 50 FanDuel points to come close to returning 5x value; the Warriors have allowed one power forward to score 50+ FanDuel points on them since the start of the 2015-16 season (Anthony Davis put up 51 on October 31, 2015). If it appears that Draymond Green will cover Antetokounmpo, the Greek Freak could be seriously limited, given that Green’s 5.01 defensive real-plus minus is the second-best mark in the NBA.

8. Klay Thompson’s top 12 shooting performances this year, in terms of field goal percentage, have ALL come at home. He has some of the crazier home/road splits you’ll find in the NBA, shooting nearly 10 percentage points higher at home (51.8% at home, 42.0% away). Given that most will gravitate towards paying up to James Harden or Giannis Antetokounmpo or paying down to players like Gary Harris and Will Barton, Thompson could see reduced ownership in a fantastic matchup: the Milwaukee Bucks have allowed opponents to shoot 48.1 percent from the field since the All-Stark break, the third-highest field-goal percentage of any team in the NBA during that span.

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9. Nikola Mirotic now has 25+ FanDuel points for three straight games for the first time in 2017; over that span, he’s averaging 17.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.3 three-pointers per game over that stretch. Paul George is the only other player in the NBA to match that line over his last three games. The Jazz rank second in DvP against power forwards, so just to be clear, this is far from a positive matchup, and Mirotic has a tendency to disappear just when things appear to be trending in the right direction. Still, on a day without a ton of obvious value plays, Mirotic fits the bill as a player who could return decent-enough value on his price tag.

10. The Grizzlies haven’t allowed 40 FanDuel points to a small forward since January 15th (and weirdly, that small forward was Doug McDermott). Kawhi Leonard has been phenomenal this year, but the Grizzlies rank fourth in DvP against the small forward position, and unlike the Warriors example above, this is probably a situation where DvP does tell the real story. At his elevated price tag ($9,900 at FanDuel, $10,000 at DraftKings), it’s tough to envision being satisfied with Leonard’s output at the end of the night.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.

Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year (typically posted on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.

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About the Author

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Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.