10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for March 24th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Friday, March 24th.
1. James Harden has recorded at least 39 points and 10 assists in three consecutive games. The last player (and ONLY player outside of Russell Westbrook this year) to have three straight 39-point, 10-assist games was Michael Jordan in April of 1989. On Friday, Harden faces the Pelicans, a team against whom he’s posted one great game (73.3 FanDuel points on March 17th) and one below average game (40.8 FanDuel points on February 23rd), though it’s worth noting that DeMarcus Cousins was absent for his 73.3-fantasy-point performance. After seeing his usage dip a bit after the Rockets’ acquisition of Lou Williams, he’s now posted usage rates above 43 percent in two straight games. Don’t overthink this one: on a Westbrook-less slate, Harden could easily put up the highest raw point total of the night on Friday.
2. One more thing about Harden: he’s triple-doubled in four of his last five games. Last season, he triple-doubled three times in 82 games played.
3. James Harden, Russell Westbrook … Al Horford? Since March 15th, Horford’s 18.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 6 assists over five games, and he joins Harden and Westbrook as the only two players to have accomplished that feat during that span. His 5.0 assists per game on the season is historically good for a center, as only Joakim Noah (5.4 assists per game in 2013-14) and Vlade Divac (5.3 in 2003-04). Boston has been staggering his and Isaiah Thomas’s minutes as of late (Horford played close to 10 minutes with Thomas off the floor in his last game, for example), playing Horford with the second unit. The Suns have been vulnerable to centers all year (they rank 25th in DvP against the position), and especially as of late. Since the All-Star break, they’ve allowed 33.4 FanDuel points to Aron Baynes, 42.3 to Ian Mahinmi, and 47.7 to Willie Cauley-Stein. Horford is still priced low at both sites ($6,800 at FanDuel, $6,600 at DraftKings), and he could be in for a big game. However, the blowout is a concern, as we saw on Thursday night with…
4. Brook Lopez, who now has 10 games with a usage rate over 30 percent this month; that’s tied with Russell Westbrook for the most in the NBA. Lopez needed to play just 24 minutes against the Suns, which increases the chances he suits up on the second leg of the Nets’ back-to-back. He’s in a ho-hum sort of matchup against the Wizards, not great, but not terrible (Washington ranks 13th in DvP against centers this year), but the reality is that, at this point in the season, the Nets have no other offensive threats to make games competitive. Washington being favored by 12.5 points (at time of writing) could take Lopez out of cash game consideration, but if he plays, and if the Nets can keep the game competitive, he could easily exceed value on Friday night.
5. Only two players in the NBA have played 38.9 minutes in five consecutive games this season. One is Zach LaVine. The other is not James Harden, or Jimmy Butler, or Andrew Wiggins, or any others who we typically think of as heavy-minutes players. It’s Suns’ rookie Tyler Ulis, who on Thursday night was on the floor for 45.3 minutes. On Friday, the Suns are playing on the second half of a back-to-back, so one would assume that Ulis sees at least a minor reduction in minutes. But with Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, and Ronnie Price all out, the Suns may have no choice but to leave Ulis out there. If Ulis is projected for heavy minutes again, he should see some Isaiah Thomas defense; out of 460 qualified players, Thomas ranks 460th in defensive real plus-minus.
6. Since March 15th (over his last five games), Marquese Chriss is averaging 18.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game; the only players in the NBA to match that stat line during that stretch are Rudy Gobert and Hassan Whiteside. On Thursday, he put up a career high 41.2 FanDuel points in over 31 minutes of play. Of course, the issue with Chriss constantly sabotages himself by getting into foul trouble, as evidenced by the fact that he has four or more personal fouls in each of his last nine games, which is the second-longest streak by a player this season (Giannis recorded 4+ fouls in 13 straight games from November to December). While Phoenix seems more than willing to play their young players as many minutes as they can handle (see Ulis, Tyler), Chriss has only played more than 30 minutes three times in his past 12 games, making him an extremely risky option for cash games.
7. Tim Hardaway has set career highs for points in a month in January (14.5), February (17.5), and March (19.2). Paul Millsap is slated to miss another game on Friday, and while Hardaway’s matchup with the Bucks (ranked fifth in DvP against shooting guards) is not a positive one, FanDuel refuses to adjust his price (he’s still at $5,800). Per CourtIQ, Hardaway has a 26.8 percent usage rate in 421 minutes with both Kent Bazemore and Paul Millsap off the floor this season. The price, usage, and likelihood that he sees the floor for more than 30 minutes all add up to Hardaway being a great play once again, despite the tough matchup.
8. Speaking of Giannis Antetokounmpo, after putting up 32 points, 16 rebounds, and 6 assists on Wednesday night against the Kings, he now has five games of 30 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists this season, which is the most ever by a Bucks player in a season. The issue with rostering Antetokounmpo is that prior to his most recent game, he’d been held to below 45 FanDuel points in seven straight, and his price ($10,300 at FanDuel, $9,700 at DraftKings) means he’ll need over 50 fantasy points to return 5x value. If he’s covered by the Hawks’ Thabo Sefolosha (2.42 DRPM, ranks fourth among small forwards), the path to 50 seems even more uncertain.
9. Nikola Mirotic shot 12-for-15 from the floor on Thursday night. To illustrate how ridiculous Mirotic’s shooting night was on Thursday, consider this: the last time a Bulls player shot higher than 80 percent from the floor on a minimum of 15 shots, LeBron James was a rookie, Metta World Peace was called Ron Artest and won Defensive Player of the Year, and Scottie Pippen was still a member of the Bulls. The player who out-shot Mirotic was Eddy Curry, who made 14 of 16 field goal attempts (87.5 percent) on April 15, 2003. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether Fred Hoiberg will ride the hot hand and give Mirotic consistent minutes moving forward, but against the 76ers (24th in DvP against power forwards over the last four weeks), he’s an interesting tournament play, at the very least, assuming his ownership won’t be out of control.
10. On March 24th, Myles Turner turns 21 years old, which means we’ve got two competing narratives on our hands: the #BirthdayNarrative and the #HangoverNarrative. Last season, when Turner turned 20, he recorded 24 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 blocks en route to 47.7 FanDuel points, the third-highest total of his career. On the other hand, millions (billions?) of 21-year-olds have been completely worthless on the day after their 21st birthdays, unable to do anything but lie in bed in a crumpled heap, pounding Gatorade and BC Headache Powder. So…the choice is yours. Choose your narrative wisely.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year (typically posted on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.