10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for March 4th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Saturday, March 4th.
1. Nikola Jokic has four triple-doubles in his first 134 games as a pro; only one center has ever notched more triple-doubles than that in his first 134 games in the NBA (David Robinson had six). On Saturday, Jokic has one of the best possible matchups against a Hornets team that ranks in the bottom third of the NBA in DvP against the center position. Will he triple-double again? It’s unlikely (although not out of the question), but Charlotte simply doesn’t have anyone who can match up with Jokic, whose price remains below $10k at both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s arguably the top overall play on the slate.
2. After allowing 42.9 FanDuel points to George Hill last night, the Nets have allowed 24 games of 40+ FD points to opposing point guards; that’s the most such games of any team in the NBA. For some perspective, consider this: last year, the Blazers and Knicks each allowed 23 games of 40+ FanDuel points to opposing point guards over the entire season, and they tied for the most such games in the NBA. In case you need more proof that the Nets’ point guard defense is historically bad…Cory Joseph scored 40 FanDuel points on them. So…Damian Lillard. He’s scored 40+ in four straight games, and since Mason Plumlee was traded to Denver, he’s seen a two-point increase in usage. Apart from Jokic, Lillard seems like the other must-have high-end player on the slate.
3. In 55 games this season, Jimmy Butler has reached 50+ FanDuel points on 13 occasions; that’s two more games of 50+ FanDuel points than he had in the 323 games he played before this season. More remarkable is the fact that Butler has upped his productivity after the Bulls brought in Dwyane Wade and his 29.8 percent usage rate. The matchup with the Clippers isn’t anything to write home about (they rank 17th in DvP against small forwards), and while he did burn everybody on Jimmy Butler Chalk Night recently (23.3 FanDuel points on February 28th), that game was a clear outlier, and he’s still managed 44+ FanDuel points in seven of his last nine games. With the Bulls favored over the Clippers by just two, the game should remain close, giving Butler the high floor/ceiling combo that makes him an elite play in all formats.
4. LeBron James is averaging just 40.2 FanDuel points per game against the Heat in seven games since re-joining the Cavs in 2014-15; that’s the third-fewest of any opponent during that stretch, with only the Grizzlies (38.6 FD points per game) and Pistons (39.9) limiting LeBron more so than the Heat. LeBron played 39 minutes last night, and on the second game of a back-to-back, there’s a non-zero chance that he sits this one out. If both he and Kyrie Irving play on Saturday, LeBron could make for an interesting (albeit scary) tournament fade given the likely high ownership due to #Revenge and his monster game last night (63.6 FD points, 69.8 DK points).
5. Jusuf Nurkic has played more than 34 minutes in six career games; in five of those games, he’s exceed 40 FanDuel points (in the game he didn’t, last Tuesday’s game against the Pistons, he came close, scoring 32.7 FanDuel points). The Nets are fourth-worst in the NBA in DvP against centers, and he’ll be matched up with Brook Lopez, who ranks 60th of 70 qualified centers in defensive real plus-minus. Even though Nurkic’s price tag has risen by $1,000 at FanDuel, there’s still value on his $6,400 salary, assuming he can play anything close to 34 minutes.
6. Since the All-Star break, DeMar DeRozan has a 37.4 usage rate, which is nearly 10 percentage points higher than Dwyane Wade, who ranks second in that time with a 27.7 percent usage rate. Only three shooting guards who have maintained a 37.7 usage or higher over an entire season: Kobe Bryant (2005-06), Michael Jordan (1985-86 and 1986-87), and Allen Iverson (2001-02). DeRozan could be difficult to fit in for FanDuel cash games (he’s priced at $9,900), he’s priced at just $8,700 at DraftKings, which is a $2,400 discount from…
7. James Harden, who has not had a usage rate above 30 percent in any of his four games since Lou Williams came over via trade. Compare that to a 27-game stretch from Christmas day up until the Williams trade, when Harden’s usage dipped below 30 percent in just four games total. Clearly, Harden does not feel the need to shoulder the offensive burden quite as much as he once did, which makes him an easy fade in cash games, even though FanDuel ($11,500) and DraftKings ($11,100) have adjusted their price due to the tough matchup with “The Grindfather” Tony Allen and the slow-paced Grizzlies.
8. Since the All-Star break, the NBA leader in minutes per game among point guards isn’t Harden, or Russell Westbrook, or John Wall; it’s Kemba Walker, at 38.1 minutes per game. He’s relying on the three-ball more and more lately, jacking up nine or more three-point attempts in three straight games, which bodes well for him given the matchup with Denver, who allows the fourth-highest three-point percentage in the NBA (37.5%), and which ranks 25th in DvP against the position. He may not be in the Lillard class in terms of raw point projections today, but he offers a bit of savings if Lillard won’t fit into your lineups.
9. Value plays seem tricky to come by on this slate, and while the logic behind rostering Tony Allen ($4,500 at FanDuel, $4,800 at DraftKings) makes sense – the Grizzlies will need a ton of minutes from him if they’re going to contain James Harden, and he could capitalize on Harden being so turnover-prone – it hasn’t been borne out by recent history. In the last 16 games he has faced Harden dating all the way back to 2013, Allen has exceeded 30 minutes on just one occasion, and he’s exceeded two steals just twice.
10. Andre Drummond has seven straight games of 14+ boards against the 76ers; the last player to do that was Dennis Rodman, who grabbed 14 rebounds against the Sixers in 13 games from 1991-1996. If you’re playing the early slate, Drummond has a chance to crush value given his always-present ability to grab 20 boards plus the fact that he’ll be guarded by Jahlil Okafor, who ranks dead last among 70 qualified centers with a -1.70 defensive real plus-minus.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year (typically posted on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.