2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Houston Texans
When you don’t know who the starting quarterback is going to be in Week 1, it makes it pretty difficult to preview a team. And when the player in question is Deshaun Watson? Well, that is a pretty big domino to fall. Between Watson’s trade demand and also his legal troubles, your guess is as good as mine when it comes to who is under center when Week 1 rolls around.
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2021 Houston Texans!!!
Be sure to check out all the great sports betting, fantasy football, and DFS content available on RotoGrinders leading up to kickoff. We’ll be covering fantasy football with rankings and projections, DFS preseason with RotoGrinders Premium, and sports betting at RG and ScoresAndOdds.
Houston Texans Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):4 (-105)
Games Favored:0
Games as a TD Favorite:0
Games as a TD Underdog:10
In 2020, the Texans struggled to a 4-12 record. And that was with Deshaun Watson at the helm, leading them to an at least somewhat respectable 24 points per game (19th in the league). Heading into this season, there are obviously plenty of questions surrounding this team, like…
Will Watson even play a snap for them this season?
If he does, will they be able to have as much success throwing the ball now that Will Fuller is gone?
If Watson gets traded, what kind of haul with the Texans be looking at in return?
And those are only a few of them.
With all of the Watson drama over the summer, lest we forget that J.J. Watt is no longer on this team. So even if the offense is able to hold their own, this defense is likely to take a big step back (there isn’t much room ‘back’ to go, either). A Watt-less defensive line leaves the Texans having the worst-graded defensive line in the entire league, per Pro Football Focus. And with a 24th ranked secondary, it is just their solid linebacker group (PFF has them ranked 8th) that appears to be the only thing that will help this defense offer any sort of resistance.
What does all of this lead to? A pretty bad professional football team, if you ask me. As you can see, they aren’t favored in a single game, and they are at least a touchdown underdog in a whopping 10 of their 17 games.
As you might imagine, I have a heavy lean toward the under on their win total this season. And there could not be a better example of why it is always important to price shop. At the time I am writing this, BetMGM has the under 4 wins at -115. DraftKings has it the exact same way. And FanDuel? +145! I don’t think I can pass those odds up. Price shop!
PICK: Houston Texans Under 4 Regular Season Wins (+145)
Houston Texans Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:32
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Below Average
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Weak
Projected Points Earned:351.5 (Rank 31)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:5
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:3
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:6
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:4
Team Defense Rank:32
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Weak
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Weak
Projected Points Allowed:465.75 (Rank 1)
Those stats above are all fine and dandy; I am almost always on the side of “the more information, the better.” But let’s be real here, there are two lines up there that tell the whole story with this team.
Projected Offense Rank: 32
Team Defense Rank: 32
Last time I checked, there are 32 teams in the National Football League. So congratulations to the Houston Texans and their entire organization on being projected dead last in both offense and defense. That is hard to do, even if you are really trying to make that happen.
(NOTE: For what it’s worth, we have Tyrod Taylor as the QB1 on the depth chart at the time I am writing this. So I can only assume that, if Deshaun Watson is ultimately their starting quarterback when Week 1 rolls around, that their offensive projections will see an increase.)
Houston Texans Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Tyrod Taylor – Underdog Rank: QB26 (ADP QB35)
RB:David Johnson – Underdog Rank: RB32 (ADP RB43)
RB: Phillip Lindsay – Underdog Rank: RB45 (ADP RB51)
WR: Brandin Cooks – Underdog Rank: WR38 (ADP WR45)
WR: Nico Collins – Underdog Rank: WR80 (ADP WR92)
WR: Anthony Miller – Underdog Rank: WR82 (ADP WR98)
TE: Jordan Akins – Underdog Rank: TE25 (ADP TE36)
What’s New?: Tyrod Taylor (?), Nico Collins, Anthony Miller
With Will Fuller now in Miami (and, ya know, the whole Watson thing), the Texans passing attack—or should I say “passing attack”—has the potential to be dramatically different than what we saw last season. As I noted earlier, this offense in 2020 put up more points than most probably realize, and a lot of their success was through the air. Tyrod Taylor is certainly a capable NLF quarterback, but he is no Deshaun Watson. And to replace Fuller, the Texans now have Nico Collins (3rd Round pick out of Michigan) and Anthony Miller (came over from the Bears) to put next to Brandin Cooks. One thing we do know is that the Texans are going to be behind A LOT this season, which means there is going to be an abundance of passing volume from this team.
What’s Uncertain?: the availability of Deshaun Watson
This situation has been discussed ad nauseam, and I don’t just mean by me in this preview. The fact of the matter though is that, now that Aaron Rodgers has reported to Green Bay, there is not a more “uncertain situation” in the entire league. Whether or not Watson is in a Texans uniform—and whether or not he is even allowed to play—has massive ramifications both on the field and in the fantasy/gambling streets.
Top Fantasy Play(s): the Texans QB1 (Taylor or Watson), David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Akins
Image Credit: Imagn