2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Tennessee Titans
Offense. Offense. Offense.
After averaging 30.6 points per game in 2020, I can’t be the only one excited to see what this offense looks like now that they have acquired Julio Jones. Think about that…
…three freakish athletes, all in their own right, who are also amazingly skilled at the game of football. And Ryan Tannehill, you are okay too I guess.
As we head into the 2021 season—where the games, believe it or not, aren’t played on paper—two things stand out as being key to the Titans season. First of all, can a defense that allowed more than 27 points per game last season show significant improvement? Losing guys like Jadeveon Clowney and Desmond King certainly won’t help matters.
And secondly, will all of their A+ skill position players be able to stay healthy for the whole season? Things thin out pretty quick on the depth chart once you get past the big names.
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Tennessee Titans Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over): 9 (-140)
Games Favored: 10
Games as a TD Favorite: 1
Games as a TD Underdog: 2
Let’s see here. 11-5 in 2020. Add Julio Jones in the offseason. All teams are now playing 17 regular season games…and their win total is set at just 9? Huh?? Where’s the respect!?
As you can see, the Titans are favored in 10 of their games. But the thing is, a lot of those are of the -3 variety. They are a touchdown favorite in exactly one of those games. Compare that to their main competition in the AFC South, the Colts, who are touchdown favorites in seven of their games. Honestly, when I scan the chart above, I’m far more intrigued at how low some of those game totals look. Over 51 against the Cardinals in Week 1, anybody??
Ultimately, I think that Tennessee’s offense will do enough of the heavy lifting to carry them over this win total. While they have plenty of difficult games on their schedule (hello, NFC West), they also get to play the Jaguars and Texans four times. So if I’m betting on anything Titans-related, it’s the over for me.
PICK: Tennessee Titans Over 9 Regular Season Wins (-140)
Tennessee Titans Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank: 6
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Elite
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Very Strong
Projected Points Earned: 406 (Rank 16)
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced: 6
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced: 4
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced: 5
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced: 5
Team Defense Rank: 19
Projected Rush Defense Rating: Average
Projected Pass Defense Rating: Average
Projected Points Allowed: 411.5 (Rank 13)
I don’t think I’m needed much here to expound upon these numbers. Their offense projects to be elite, while their defense projects to be average at best. That is pretty much their season in a nutshell; it’s just a matter of how it all plays out from game to game. If we are looking for potential outliers, I’d be much more inclined to expect bigger things out of the defense than any sort of slippage from the offense. Because even if the arrow for Julio Jones is pointing down as he enters his 11th NFL season, it’s hard to argue that he is a meaningful upgrade over Corey Davis.
Tennessee Titans Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Ryan Tannehill – Underdog Rank: QB9 (ADP QB11)
RB: Derrick Henry – Underdog Rank: RB3 (ADP RB3)
RB: Darrynton Evans – Underdog Rank: RB68 (ADP RB51)
WR: A.J. Brown – Underdog Rank: WR6 (ADP WR7)
WR: Julio Jones – Underdog Rank: WR10 (ADP WR16)
WR: Josh Reynolds – Underdog Rank: WR95 (ADP WR97)
TE: Anthony Firkser – Underdog Rank: TE16 (ADP TE20)
Out go Corey Davis and Adam Humphries come Julio Jones and Josh Reynolds. Yeah, I’d certainly call that a net win! Probably gone for Julio are the days of 1,500+ yards in a season. But honestly, we aren’t projecting him to be that far off of that when it’s all said and done.
What’s Uncertain?: There’s only one football
Last season, Derrick Henry garnered almost 42% of the total opportunity in the offense. A.J. Brown was at 12.6% (27.1% target share), with Corey Davis down at 10.8% (22.3% target share). How will the addition of Julio Jones impact things? Will the Titans throw the ball more than they did last year simply because they have two studs flanking Ryan Tannehill? Or will they continue to pound the rock with Derrick Henry as much as humanly possible?
Image Credit: Imagn