2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds & Projections
Fool me once, shame on you; fool me, uh, seven times…shame on me. (I think that’s how it goes.)
I doubted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ acquisition of Tom Brady last year, so much so that I picked under their win total (10.5), bet that they’d miss the playoffs, and faded them every step of the way to the Lombardi Trophy. Yeah. I’m still hurting.
The worst part of all?
Brady knocked out my beloved Packers to get to the Super Bowl before defeating the quarterback of my alma mater, Patrick Mahomes. Gronk-sponsored CBD can’t even cure my night terrors.
With all 11 offensive starters including arguably the best receiving corps in the NFL returning to Tampa, the Bucs have an abundance of weapons with which to torment me, and the entire NFL, again.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds, Betting Preview
Win Total (over):11.5 (-150)
Games Favored:15
Games as a TD Favorite:10
Games as a TD Underdog:0
Last August, I was certain the Bucs were overvalued in the betting market. This season, I’d be a fool not to give them respect.
Betting markets are similarly bullish on the Bucs as we inch closer to Week 1. Tom Brady just turned 44, but he’s given us no reason to doubt him. Brady’s Bucs aren’t the Super Bowl favorites — the Chiefs remain atop odds sheets — but as you’ll see in our projections, it’s the Bucs who are arguably the best all-around team in the NFL. Favored in 15 of 17 regular-season games, their win total is 11.5 for a reason.
People may forget the Bucs aren’t defending an NFC South title. They played every postseason game on the road, starting with a nail-biter in Washington. However, this year, their path to 12 wins and a division championship is a lot easier.
Replacing a Hall-of-Famer like Drew Brees was never going to be easy for the Saints, but whoever wins the starting job in New Orleans, Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill, will do so without their no. 1 receiver, Michael Thomas. The Falcons and Panthers have improved, but not enough to pose as threats.
While I think the Bucs win 12 games, I prefer laying -185 to win the division. I’m bearish on the Saints relative to the market and 11 or 10 wins could be enough to win this weak division.
My favorite Bucs-related bet, though? Chris Godwin 30-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards.
By now we should all know Bucs head coach Bruce Arians loves his quarterbacks throwing the deep ball, and Brady has had no problem doing just that. You might argue that there are too many weapons surrounding Brady for Godwin to take the receiving title, but the Bucs’ high pass rate makes this a live bet despite the crowded field. In fact, according to our projections, Godwin is the favorite to lead the Bucs in targets and receiving yards. If you still aren’t convinced, consider that the 25-year-old receiver predominately lines up in the slot (64% in 2020), a position Brady notoriously targets. And finally, Godwin played four fewer games than Mike Evans in 2020 yet trailed him by only five receptions and 166 yards. I rest my case.
BUCS PICK: Godwin 30-1 to Lead NFL in Receiving Yards
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:2
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Average
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Very Strong
Projected Points Earned:465 (Rank 2)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:7
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:5
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:4
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:6
Team Defense Rank:1
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Elite
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Strong
Projected Points Allowed:376.5 (Rank 28)
The Bucs will air it out and score plenty of fantasy points in the process. The problem, at least when it comes to DFS, is that their defense is elite too. That makes TB game stacks scarier than teams with similar offensive prowess but a less impressive defense. In fact, their most DFS-friendly game is the first NFL game of the season, on Thursday Night Football meaning we won’t be able to stack the game on the main slate. In terms of managed leagues and Best Ball, there’s no reason to be frightened. Our projections suggest there’s some value at Brady’s current ADP (see below), and there will be plenty of passes to go around.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Tom Brady – Underdog Rank: QB7 (ADP QB11)
RB: Leonard Fournette – Underdog Rank: RB27 (ADP RB38)
RB: Ronald Jones – Underdog Rank: RB36 (ADP RB33)
WR: Chris Godwin – Underdog Rank: WR12 (ADP WR17)
WR: Mike Evans – Underdog Rank: WR19 (ADP WR14)
WR: Antonio Brown – Underdog Rank: WR44 (ADP WR41)
TE: Rob Gronkowski – Underdog Rank: TE24 (ADP TE18)
What’s New?: Chemistry
It sounds funny to say considering the Bucs are roughly seven months removed from winning the Super Bowl. But last year was an unprecedented season that presented unprecedented hurdles, especially for quarterbacks on new teams. Due to the circumstances, Brady had limited practice reps with his receivers and offensive line before the season kicked off. Their miscommunication and lack of chemistry were on display through much of the season. Heading into their bye week, the Bucs were 7-5 and Brady’s fantasy owners were getting only modest performances. After returning from their bye, the Bucs delivered an ugly-ish win against the Vikings, and then things began to click. Brady threw for 390, 348, and 399 yards weeks 15-17. The Bucs didn’t look back, winning eight consecutive games and counting. The deck was stacked against the Bucs, but their play progressed as the season progressed . This year it won’t take them three months to build Super Bowl-winning chemistry.
What’s Uncertain?: No. 1 Receiver
Mike Evans is the first Bucs receiver taken in fantasy football drafts, but it’s unclear whether he’ll end up as the Bucs’ WR1. Our projections prefer Godwin, but the numbers are close enough that it can go either way — nearly a coin flip, in fact. Godwin is a much better bet to pay off his ADP in Best Ball and managed leagues. I love Godwin in DFS, too. His speed makes him a big-play threat anytime he’s on the field, regardless of where he gets the ball. However, if we want to be GTO, it’s probably best to let ownership dictate who we pick on a week-to-week basis. When Godwin is chalk, roll with Evans and vice versa.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Tom Brady, Antonio Brown
NFL DFS & Betting Preview Hub
Image Credit: Imagn