2023 Baltimore Orioles Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections
Nick Galaida is here to break down the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. Follow along for an in-depth preview, along with a look at current odds, projections, and picks. Get a head start on the baseball action with PrizePicks Promo Code GRINDERS for a $100 deposit bonus.
Last year, the Baltimore Orioles finished 83-79, which was their first winning season since 2016. Their second half was propelled by an infusion of young talent, with even more emerging stars likely to make their big league debut in 2023. Seemingly ready to make a run at ending their six-year playoff drought, the front office was rather quiet this off-season in the free agent market – choosing to sign Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens, instead of targeting some of the more significant players who were available.
However, Orioles fans should not be sounding the alarm just yet. Though general manager Mike Elias did not go on a spending spree this past winter, he has the deepest farm system in all of baseball heading into the new season, meaning that Baltimore will have the capital required to acquire any player they choose prior to this summer’s trade deadline – perhaps Corbin Burnes or Bryan Reynolds?
Elias owes the fanbase something, after claiming last August that he planned to “significantly escalate the payroll” prior to Opening Day this March. Per Spotrac, only the Oakland Athletics have a smaller payroll than Baltimore as of this writing.
Below, we take a look at how the Orioles’ roster looks heading into the regular season, offering our thoughts on their win total after a player-by-player assessment of their prospects on the futures market!
- Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 76.5 Wins (-120), DraftKings
- Division Winner: (+2500), FanDuel
- To Make the Postseason: (+370), DraftKings
- American League Winner: (+4000), FanDuel
- World Series Champion: (+10000), FanDuel
Starting Lineup
Catcher, Adley Rutschman
- MVP Odds: +3500
- PrizePicks Projection: 17.5 Home Runs
Last year, Adley Rutschman suffered a triceps injury during the spring, which delayed his MLB debut until May 21. In 40 games prior to his arrival, the Orioles were 16-24, 13 games behind the New York Yankees for the division lead in the American League East. From that point to the end of the regular season, Baltimore went 67-55, good for an 89-win pace across 162 games.
Rutschman did his part with both his bat and his glove. At the plate, he finished in the 79th percentile in xwOBA, and showed tremendous plate discipline for such a young player. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances, Rutschman ranked 27th in O-Swing% and 24th in Z-Contact%, proving that he has a rare ability to lay off pitches outside the strike zone while simultaneously doing as much damage as possible when he gets something hittable. Defensively, Rutschman ended the year ranked in the 79th percentile in pop time to second base and was in the 84th percentile for framing.
The main critique of Rutschman as a rookie was his struggles against left-handed pitching. Facing southpaws, he had a .173 batting average and a .552 OPS, compared to a .280 batting average and an .889 OPS against right-handed hurlers. Still, he is only 25 years old, with plenty of time to improve in the few areas where he was not outstanding during his debut campaign.
First Base, Ryan Mountcastle
- MVP Odds: +20000
In 2021, Ryan Mountcastle hit 33 home runs and delivered 89 RBI in 144 games played. In 2022, he hit the ball harder, reduced his strikeout percentage, and improved in nearly every other meaningful offensive metric. Yet, he hit only 22 home runs. How is that possible?
Simply, Baltimore’s decision to push back the left field wall 10 yards and to heighten the wall by 13 feet kept Mountcastle from his second consecutive 30-homer campaign. Heading into 2023, he will still have the same issue with the left field wall at home, but there are clear indicators that the former first-round pick is improving, and that we might not have seen his best stuff yet.
Notably, the move to first base also improved his defensive value tremendously. In 145 games last year, Mountcastle ranked in the 80th percentile in Outs Above Average.
Second Base, Adam Frazier
“Captain Slapdick” played 156 games for the Seattle Mariners in 2022, but his final output was a far cry from his stellar 2021 campaign. In 2022, he saw his batting average drop by 67 points. The precipitous drop was far from a surprise for someone who has never ended a regular season ranked higher than the 33rd percentile in average exit velocity. Last year, he finished in the third percentile in this metric, a worrisome sign for a player on the wrong side of 30 years old.
Still, the Orioles found his defense and veteran presence worthy of a one-year, $8 million contract during the offseason. Elite with his glove, Frazier is a perfect stop-gap for this infield until their wealth of young prospects arrives. If their arrival date is this summer, Baltimore could do worse than paying a utility backup $8 million for his reliable defense and impressive contact skills.
Third Base, Gunnar Henderson
- Rookie of the Year Odds: +300
- MVP Odds: +15000
In his first taste of big league action last fall, Gunnar Henderson posted a .259 batting average and a .788 OPS. He did not qualify for many of Baseball Savant’s percentile rankings, but his ability to hit the ball hard while playing strong defense was on full display in the 34 games he was with the Orioles.
Similar to Rutschman, Henderson struggled mightily with southpaws, hitting .130 with a .448 OPS against them, compared to a .290 batting average and an .872 OPS against right-handed pitchers. More concerning for Henderson than Rutschman is the fact that Henderson also struggled extensively against left-handed pitching throughout his time in the minor leagues.
Nevertheless, his improved swing decisions will force pitchers to challenge him more often than they would like to. Chasing only 23.2% of pitches outside the strike zone, Henderson’s 12.1% walk rate is likely sustainable going forward. If he can improve against lefties and learn to hit the ball in the air more frequently, there is elite upside for Baltimore’s third baseman of the future.
Shortstop, Jorge Mateo
In 2022, Jorge Mateo stole a career-high 35 bases in 44 tries. Asked by Dan Connolly if he can steal 50 bases in 2023, Mateo responded, “Yeah. 50. Put it on the books. Put it on the books.” Mateo would be only the fourth Oriole in modern franchise history to hit the half-century mark in a single season if he can back up his spring training prediction.
The main impediment to Mateo having a chance to reach the milestone is his bat. In 150 games last season, he batted .221 with a .646 OPS, which is unlikely to be enough to hold off Joey Ortiz and Jordan Westburg, both of whom are better offensive players than Mateo. Ortiz and Westburg will begin the year in Triple-A and are far from deficient with their glove.
Mateo’s glove is elite, ranking in the 97th percentile in Outs Above Average in 2022. However, he seems destined to find himself relegated to a utility role by mid-summer if he is unable to improve on his 12th percentile average exit velocity, 13th percentile strikeout percentage, or 12th percentile walk rate during the first few months of 2023.
Outfield, Austin Hays
Similar to Mountcastle, Austin Hays saw a notable decline in his surface-level power numbers in 2022. Though most of his batted ball metrics remained static from 2021 to 2022, Hays did see a decline in his average exit velocity, HardHit%, and barrel% last season. He also regressed sharply in terms of his plate discipline, swinging at far more pitches outside of the strike zone.
Entering his third year with an everyday role for the Orioles, the former third-round draft pick’s ceiling appears to be a league-average outfielder, who has enough speed to play center field to give Cedric Mullins a day off. Still, his defensive deficiencies and his undisciplined approach at the plate make his floor much lower than the organization would prefer.
Outfield, Cedric Mullins
- MVP Odds: +20000
Following a 30-homer, 30-stolen-base season in 2021 was never going to be easy for Cedric Mullins, especially with Camden Yards transitioning to a much more pitcher-friendly venue in 2022. Nearly all of Mullins’ batted ball metrics remained consistent from 2021 to 2022, but his HardHit% did regress from the 39th percentile to the 33rd percentile – not an insignificant drop-off. Going into 2023, Mullins is on a one-year, $4.1 million contract as part of his arbitration years. If he wants to earn a long-term extension with the club, he likely needs to make major strides at the plate to regain his 2021 form.
Also in Mullins’ favor are the new larger bases. Per Dan Connolly, Mullins is on the record this spring as saying, “He (Mateo) can get 50. I can also get 50,” – meaning stolen bases. After swiping 34 bags in 44 attempts last season, it might not be too bold of a declaration.
Regardless of whether or not Mullins is able to flirt with 30 home runs in 2023, Baltimore will be glad to have his elite defense in center field and his 80th percentile sprint speed on the basepaths this summer.
Outfield, Anthony Santander
In 2022, Anthony Santander was a qualified hitter for the first time in his career, with 647 plate appearances. He finished the year with 33 home runs, increasing his fly ball% from 43.4% in 2021 to 49.8% in 2022. He swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and made far more contact on pitches inside the strike zone, leading to a 2.4% improvement in his swinging strike percentage overall.
Everything about Santander’s adjustments last season suggests that his production is sustainable going forward. If he can finish 2023 ranked in the 72nd percentile in average exit velocity while maintaining good swing decisions, the organization will undoubtedly put up with his 12th percentile defense in right and left field.
If Santander can improve his ability to hit right-handed pitching, he could threaten for 40 home runs, even in a pitcher-friendly home ballpark.
Designated Hitter, Kyle Stowers
A former early-round draft pick, there has never been any doubt about the ability of Kyle Stowers to hit the baseball hard. The larger concerns have always centered around his unpalatable strikeout rates, which were north of 30% in the minor leagues at three different levels.
However, in 2022, he cut his strikeout rate by nearly 10% compared to 2021, which earned him a promotion to the big league club for 34 games at the end of the regular season. In the small sample size, the strikeout concerns were evident, punching out 29.6% of the time.
Still, there have been signs of improvement, and he is only 25 years old. Stowers has a path to regular at-bats with Baltimore in 2023 if he can improve his swing decisions, especially if Austin Hays continues to struggle this year.
Utility, Ramon Urias
In 2022, Ramon Urias became the first Oriole to win a Gold Glove since Manny Machado in 2015. The most surprising aspect of Urias winning the award at third base is the fact that he had played only 75 of his 686 career big league innings at the hot corner prior to last season, per Baseball Prospectus. Simply, Urias is an elite defender at multiple positions on the diamond and is likely to thrive as a utility man for Baltimore in 2023, particularly with his glove.
Pitching Staff
Starting Pitcher, Cole Irvin
- Cy Young Odds: +15000
Simply, Cole Irvin being a member of the Baltimore rotation on Opening Day is a major sign that the organization is more committed to winning in 2024 and 2025 than they are in 2023. Across the last two seasons, Irvin has been a reliable innings eater, making 62 starts for the Oakland Athletics. However, he posted a 4.11 ERA and a 4.25 FIP in that span.
In 2022, Irvin finished the year ranked in the 25th percentile in average exit velocity, 32nd percentile in HardHit%, 15th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 12th percentile in Whiff%. His velocity and spin rates are both among the worst in all of baseball among qualified hurlers, and there is little indication that there is more in the tank.
Irvin struggled against both right- and left-handed batters last year. The best-case scenario for the Orioles this season is that the team is winning too many games on days started by people not named Irvin, that the front office is forced to make an upgrade here.
Starting Pitcher, Kyle Gibson
- Cy Young Odds: +10000
From 2016 to 2020, Kyle Gibson posted a 4.65 ERA, 4.55 FIP, and a 1.46 WHIP. In 2021, Gibson altered his pitch mix, dramatically reducing his slider usage while simultaneously introducing a cutter that became his best pitch against left-handed batters. The result was a 3.71 ERA, 3.84 xERA, 3.87 FIP, and a 1.22 WHIP. In 2022, Gibson ostensibly struggled to a 5.05 ERA, 4.46 xERA, 4.28 FIP, and a 1.34 FIP with the Philadelphia Phillies. However, he had a 4.08 ERA and a 4.08 FIP through his first 25 turns through the rotation before the wheels fell off in September.
Thus, there is reason for the Baltimore Orioles, an analytically-driven organization, to be optimistic that they can get strong results from Gibson during the upcoming campaign. Across Gibson’s final nine starts last season, he posted an abnormally-high 24.9% strikeout rate, which was 6.9% higher than it was through his first 22 starts of the season and 6.5% higher than his career punchout rate from 2013 to 2021. Per Steve Melewski, the increase in strikeouts was attributable to a tweak to his slider. If Baltimore can help Gibson find a more optimal usage of his cutter against lefties, and if his revamped slider can continue to be a strong swing-and-miss option – this could be one of the more underrated signings of this past offseason, especially at a price tag of $10 million for one year.
Starting Pitcher, Dean Kremer
In 2021, Dean Kremer threw his fastball 55.7% of the time, followed by his cutter 21%, curveball 15.8%, and his changeup 7.5%. In 2022, he cut his fastball usage to 32.7%, simultaneously increasing his cutter usage to 30.9%, in addition to introducing a new sinker, which he offered 8.7% of the time.
His overhauled repertoire improved his ERA from 7.55 to 3.23 from 2021 to 2022, with similar gains in xERA and FIP. Kremer’s fastball velocity ranked in only the 17th percentile in 2022, but excellent spin rates on his pitches led to a significant increase in his ground ball rate, in addition to inducing far more soft contact.
Playing in front of a strong defense, Kremer profiles as a reliable middle-of-the-rotation pitcher in 2023, who will give Baltimore an opportunity to win each time he takes the mound. Across his final 10 appearances last year, he had a 2.76 ERA and a 3.90 FIP, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of those games. Expect more of the same from him heading into the new campaign.
Starting Pitcher, Grayson Rodriguez
- Cy Young Odds: +20000
- Rookie of the Year Odds: +1000
According to Roch Kubatko, Grayson Rodriguez is “expected to break camp in the rotation.” In his first spring training appearance of 2023, his fastball touched 98-99 mph routinely. Unquestionably, he is the best pitching prospect in all of baseball as of this writing, combining an elite fastball with a deep arsenal of secondary offerings.
Prior to being shut down in 2022 due to a lat injury, Rodriguez posted a 2.20 ERA, 2.04 FIP, 35.8% strikeout percentage, 7.7% walk rate, and a 0.93 WHIP in 69.2 innings of work at Triple-A. The year before that, he had a 2.60 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 39.0% strikeout percentage, 7.1% walk rate, and a 0.87 WHIP in 79.2 innings at Double-A.
There are workload concerns for Rodriguez in his first big league campaign, but the talent is far from a question mark. He is a near-lock to be the ace of this staff from the moment he debuts this April.
Starting Pitcher, Kyle Bradish
In his first taste of MLB action in 2022, Kyle Bradish delivered a 4.90 ERA, 4.49 xERA, and a 4.46 FIP in 117.2 innings of work. He finished the year ranked in the 15th percentile in average exit velocity, 24th percentile in HardHit%, 42nd percentile in strikeout percentage, 33rd percentile in walk rate, and 30th percentile in Whiff%.
The poor results were a surprise for a pitcher who has a fastball that routinely touches 95-96 mph, especially considering the fact that he has multiple usable secondary offerings. Notably, Bradish introduced a sinker in September, which he threw 14.1% of the time, dramatically reducing his fastball usage across his final seven outings. Facing five playoff teams down the stretch, Bradish posted a 3.35 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and a 1.12 WHIP.
A lack of swing-and-miss stuff, coupled with command issues, limits his ceiling, but Bradish is more than capable of finding success as a backend starter if Baltimore can help him find an optimal pitch mix heading into his sophomore season.
Bullpen:
Relief Pitcher, Felix Bautista
According to Roch Kubatko, Felix Bautista is on a “gradual increase” regarding his intensity level as he ramps up for the 2023 regular season. The Orioles decided to keep Bautista from throwing this offseason until January, hoping to give his left knee and right shoulder some rest after he experienced fatigue last September.
In 65 appearances last year, Bautista had a 2.19 ERA, 2.66 xERA, and a 2.91 FIP. He ranked in the 97th percentile in strikeout percentage, 99th percentile in fastball velocity and 84th percentile in average exit velocity. If he can improve his command closer to league average, his 4-seam fastball and split-finger have the potential to be one of the deadliest ninth-inning knock-out punches for years to come in the American League East.
Relief Pitcher, Cionel Perez
Across his first 50.2 innings in the big leagues, spanning from 2018 to 2021, Cionel Perez had a 6.04 ERA, 6.02 FIP, 15.4% walk rate, and a 1.58 WHIP. Last year, Baltimore revamped his pitch mix, reducing his fastball usage while increasing his slider usage, in addition to introducing a sinker.
Opposing hitters had a .221 batting average and a .314 slugging percentage against his fastball in 2022. Batters were even worse against his slider, posting a .182 batting average and a .216 slugging percentage. As a result, Perez finished the season with a career-best 1.40 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 9.0% walk rate, and a 1.16 WHIP.
He still allowed more hard contact than is desirable from a setup option, but the foundation appears stable for another productive campaign in 2023 from the 26-year-old lefty.
Relief Pitcher, Keegan Akin
In 101.2 innings as a starter in his big league career, Keegan Akin owns a 4.92 FIP, 10.3% walk rate, .284 opponent batting average, and a 1.61 WHIP. In 100.2 innings as a reliever, Akin owns a 3.58 FIP, 5.4% walk rate, a .238 opponent batting average, and a 1.11 WHIP.
In 2022, Akin finally abandoned a curveball that had proven itself ineffective during his first two years with the Orioles. Instead, he relied on his slider for a career-high 29.5% of his offerings, against which, batters had a .196 batting average and a .268 slugging percentage.
Heading into 2023, it would not be surprising to see Akin further increase his slider and changeup usage to help him find more success against right-handed batters. Still only 28 years old, there is room for him to continue to grow as a pitcher.
Relief Pitcher, Mychal Givens
Prior to being traded to the New York Mets at the deadline in 2022, Mychal Givens had a 2.66 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, and a 29.7 strikeout percentage in 40.2 innings for the Chicago Cubs. In his first appearances with the Mets, Givens allowed five runs in 0.2 innings but was excellent from that point on – delivering a 2.70 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 24.7 strikeout percentage, and a 1.25 WHIP across his final 20.0 innings of the regular season.
At his worst, Givens is a league-average relief option. At his best, his elite fastball spin rate helps him contribute at a high level for sustained stretches. Though not a sexy acquisition this past winter, he is likely to help Baltimore’s arm barn in 2023.
Relief Pitcher, Bryan Baker
Last season, Bryan Baker threw a changeup for the first time in his career. Opposing hitters had no idea what to do with the offering, posting a dreadful .044 batting average with no extra-base hits against the pitch. Per Baseball Prospectus, out of every pitch thrown at least 200 times in the majors in 2022, Baker’s changeup produced the lowest slugging percentage against.
If Baker can further refine his 96 mph fastball and his slider, there is reason to believe that he can be even better than the 3.49 ERA and 2.74 FIP that he posted as a rookie.
Relief Pitcher, Austin Voth
Austin Voth has big league experience as both a starter and as a reliever, and his indifference towards his role makes it more likely than not that he begins 2023 in the bullpen as a hurler who can eat multiple innings.
Voth was the latest member to benefit from Baltimore’s analytically-sound organizational approach to upgrading talent last season after coming over from the Washington Nationals in June. During his stint with Washington to begin the year, Voth had a 10.13 ERA, 4.93 FIP, and a 2.14 WHIP. In 83.0 innings after joining the Orioles, he had a 3.04 ERA, 3.96 FIP, and a 1.23 WHIP.
What changed? In April, Voth threw his 4-seam fastball 49.5% of the time – a pitch which opposing hitters had a .357 batting average and a .643 slugging percentage against. By September, Voth had reduced his fastball usage to 37.5%, replacing the extra usage with more of his curveball and a newly minted sweeper – both of which held opposing hitters to a .231 batting average or lower.
In 2023, Voth could see his fastball percentage further decline, meaning that there is hope for even better results in his first full campaign in Baltimore.
Relief Pitcher, DL Hall
After experiencing discomfort on the right side of his lower back shortly before players reported to spring training, DL Hall is being brought along slowly by the Orioles in March. The organization’s No. 2 pitching prospect is likely to be a fixture in the bullpen rather than in the rotation this season for a multitude of reasons – 1) his health; 2) a shortage of innings in spring training to build up to a starter’s workload; 3) he proved largely ineffectual as a starter in 2022 across multiple levels.
As a reliever, Hall has an elite upside, where he would be able to focus more on his plus-slider and above-average changeup, limiting the vulnerability of his fastball command issues.
Baltimore Orioles – Futures Pick & Prediction
Asked why the team did not make significant moves this past off-season in pursuit of top-end talent, Mike Elias commented, “We don’t want to subtract from that group unless we have to, and the timing’s right. I hope we get to that point. I’ll be pleased if we’re faced with that decision. If we are, we plan to buy.”
Baltimore’s Opening Day roster leaves much to be desired in 2023, but there is reason to believe that the team can play its way into a position to force the front office “to buy” in July. The offensively challenged Jorge Mateo is likely to be supplanted by one of Joey Ortiz or Jordan Westburg at some point during the first half of the year. The rest of the offense is replete with strong defense and excellent baserunners, not to mention enviable pop from Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander. The starting rotation, aided by an impressive analytics department, could overperform expectations relative to their reputation. The bullpen has the potential to be elite.
If taking the over on Baltimore’s win total, there is a healthy amount of trust that one must place in a number of young players. Bettors must also take Elias at his word that the front office will truly begin to consolidate assets if they find themselves in playoff contention during the latter portion of the summer. Still, it is a dangerous game to bet against a fundamentally sound organization that is overflowing with exciting prospects who are on the verge of the big stage.
PICK: Over 76.5 wins (-120, DraftKings)
2023 Baltimore Orioles DFS Pick’em
- PrizePicks Projection: Adley Rutschman less than 17.5 Home Runs
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