Sign In Get the App $ $

2023 Seattle Mariners Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-04-03 18:10:04

Article Image

Nick Galaida is here to break down the Seattle Mariners’ pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. Follow along for an in-depth preview, along with a look at current odds, projections, and picks. Get a head start on the baseball action with PrizePicks Promo Code GRINDERS for a $100 deposit bonus.

Last season, the Seattle Mariners made the playoffs for the first time since 2002, winning a series against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card round before getting swept in the division series. It was the second year in a row in which the Mariners won exactly 90 games during the regular season.

This past winter, the organization traded for Teoscar Hernandez with the hope that they can get even more production from their lineup in 2023.

Below, we take a look at this roster position-by-position. We offer insight into the futures market and leans for this team tonight on PrizePicks for their matchup against the Los Angeles Angels!

2023 Seattle Mariners DFS Pick’em

Starting Lineup

Catcher, Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh has shown plenty of potential with his bat early in his career, but his defense remaisn a work in progress. In 2022, he ranked in the 84th percentile in average exit velocity and 69th percentile in HardHit% but was in only the 32nd percentile in pop time to second base. His framing is excellent, but Seattle will struggle this year if they are unable to slow down opponents on the basepaths.

First Base, Ty France

Last summer, Ty France compiled his third consecutive strong season at the plate. Since the beginning of 2020, he owns a .285 batting average, .798 OPS, 16.7% strikeout percentage, and a 6.5% walk rate. In that span, his 128 wRC indicates that he has been 28% more productive than the league-average hitter.

Impressively, France has maintained high levels of production against both right- and left-handed pitching in recent seasons. His 24th percentile average exit velocity and 29th percentile HardHit% do not portend a breakout star in the near future, but every lineup in the big leagues needs a France – someone who will make contact on a regular basis and be available for at least 140 games each year.

Second Base, Kolten Wong

This past offseason, Kolten Wong was acquired by the Mariners in exchange for Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro. Throughout his career, Wong has earned a reputation as an elite defender and a capable infield bat, but last season he regressed sharply – ranking in the third percentile in outs above average and the 14th percentile in average exit velocity.

Notably, his chase percentage rose from 24.9% in 2021 to 28.9% in 2022. His in-zone contact rate fell from 90.5% to 88.2%. As players get older, they tend to decline. However, we rarely see a drop-off as rapid and shocking as Wong last year.

The Mariners are betting on a bounce-back campaign from him as they look to return to the postseason. It remains to be seen if Wong can be a positive impact in pursuit of another October run.

Third Base, Eugenio Suarez

Since Eugenio Suarez debuted for the Detroit Tigers in 2014, his defense has ranged from catastrophic to very good. Last season, he came in right at the league average, ranking in the 50th percentile in outs above average at third base.

Nothing else about Suarez’s season or his game can be characterized as even remotely close to average. In terms of power, he is among the best in the game. He finished 2022 in the 94th percentile in barrel rate and the 69th percentile in HardHit%. However, he also ranked in the 12th percentile in xBA, fifth percentile in strikeout percentage, and the eight percentile in whiff%.

Simply, Suarez will hit around 30 home runs while swinging and missing far more than is desirable while playing a level of defense that is completely unpredictable on a day-to-day basis. When he is hitting home runs, he is an asset. When he isn’t hitting home runs, he is tough to watch.

Shortstop, J.P. Crawford

The Mariners and J.P. Crawford agreed to an arbitration extension, which will keep him from being a free agent until 2027. Yet, the early returns on that deal do not look to favor the organization.

In 2022, Crawford batted .243 with only six home runs and three stolen bases in 145 games played. His average exit velocity ranked in the third percentile and his HardHit% was only marginally better. Despite these poor contributions, Crawford still batted in the top-five spots in the lineup 97 times last season, including 17 games as the cleanup hitter.

Defensively, he had the worst season of his career, ranking in the second percentile in outs above average. His 36th percentile arm strength hardly made Seattle strong up the middle. Heading into 2023, a year in which defenders will need even more range and physical strength to offset losses from the shift restriction – Crawford looks more like a liability than an asset.

Outfield, Jarred Kelenic

Jarred Kelenic was drafted with the sixth overall pick in 2018 by the New York Mets, but he has yet to live up to those lofty expectations. Since making his MLB debut in 2021, Kelenic owns a .168 batting average and a 29.9% strikeout rate at the plate. He has been completely unplayable against left-handed pitching, with a career .156 batting average and only 10 extra-base hits in 203 plate appearances.

Unfortunately for Mariners’ fans, Kelenic’s path to greatness looks severely capped heading into 2023. Thus far in his professional career, he has proven himself completely incapable of hitting anything other than a fastball, and even his damage done against fastballs is meager. Last year, he had a 40.8% whiff rate against breaking balls and a 46.3% whiff rate against offspeed offerings.

Expect him to continue to struggle this season, with his playing time likely becoming more and more limited with each passing month.

Outfield, Julio Rodriguez

As a rookie, Julio Rodriguez set the league on fire, leaving little doubt that he will be one of the game’s premier players for the next two decades.

In April, he struggled mightily – batting .205 with a .544 OPS and a dreadful 37.0% strikeout rate. However, from May 1 to the end of the regular season, he had a .297 batting average, .905 OPS, 24.0% strikeout rate, and stole 16 bases. He finished the year ranked in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity, 95th percentile in HardHit%, and 72nd percentile in xwOBA, all while playing elite defense in center field.

If there is anything negative to say about Rodriguez’s first year in the big leagues, it is that he showed a problematic tendency to chase pitches outside of the strike zone. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances, he ranked 168th out of 205 hitters in O-Swing%. Far from a death sentence, plate discipline and making more consistent contact are things that are correctable (look at the career trajectory of Pete Alonso).

In 2022, Rodriguez finished seventh in the American League MVP voting. Assuming he can make improvements in areas where he struggled at the plate, it is absolutely appropriate that he has the fourth-shortest odds to win the award as a sophomore. Seattle fans have a true star under contract through at least 2035.

Outfield, A.J. Pollock

Last year with the Chicago White Sox, A.J. Pollock played in 138 games, collecting the second-most plate appearances of his career, which dates back to 2012. This past offseason, Pollock was brought over to Seattle on a one-year, $7 million deal to help fill a needed void in the outfield.

However, it is difficult to see him being the missing ingredient to elevate the Mariners to become true title contenders. Pollock’s defense graded poorly in 2022, ranking in the 32nd percentile in outs above average. Though he mashed against left-handed pitching, he was borderline unplayable against right-handers, with a .231 batting average and a .593 OPS.

If used sparingly, Pollock can be a valuable depth piece. If asked to do too much, his health becomes a concern and his glove becomes a liability.

Designated Hitter, Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez will be a free agent at the end of this season, but Seattle was still willing to trade for him this past winter due to the immense power potential he has at the plate. After struggling to begin last season due to an oblique injury, Hernadez hit 22 home runs from June 15th to the end of the regular season.

His early-season health deflated many of his overall numbers, but he still ranked in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity and the 98th percentile in HardHit%. His defense leaves much to be desired, making him better used as a designated hitter when possible.

He is not the missing piece for a championship team, but he can certainly be one piece of the puzzle if used properly in a way that minimizes his weaknesses.

Pitching Staff

Starting Pitcher:

Starting Pitcher, Luis Castillo

Following a mid-season trade to Seattle last summer, Luis Castillo posted a 3.17 ERA, 2.91 FIP, and a 1.10 WHIP across his final 11 turns through the rotation. He limited traffic against both sides of the platoon, with a 1.11 WHIP against lefties and a 1.06 WHIP against righties.

As the season progressed, Castillo started using his slider more against left-handed batters, which helped him finally solve that part of his game. In September, he threw 57 sliders against lefties, zero of which resulted in a hit, and 42.3% of which resulted in a swing and miss.

Heading into 2023, he has all the tools necessary to be a bonafide star.

Starting Pitcher, Robbie Ray

Following a poor outing to begin the year, Robbie Ray was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a left flexor strain. Even when healthy, there are plenty of reasons for concern when it comes to Ray’s profile. In 2022, he had a 4.17 FIP – his fourth time arriving north of 4.00 in that metric in the last five seasons.

Though Ray continued to dominate left-handed batters, he also continued to struggle with righties. Against right-handed bats, he had a 9.1% walk rate and a 4.88 FIP. He allowed 1.66 home runs per nine innings, according to Fangraphs.

Starting Pitcher, Logan Gilbert

Logan Gilbert threw 185.1 innings in 2022, finishing the year with a strong 3.20 ERA and a 3.46 FIP. However, his path to those numbers was far from linear. Against left-handed hitters, he dominated with a 2.70 FIP, 27.0% strikeout percentage, and a 1.04 WHIP. Against right-handed batters, he was far less efficient, with a 4.14 FIP, 19.1% strikeout percentage, and a 1.30 WHIP.

Still, he possesses good command and is only 25 years old entering 2023. Pitching for an organization that has had success helping pitchers overcome platoon issues, the ceiling is likely much higher for Gilbert than what we saw last summer.

Starting Pitcher, George Kirby

George Kirby threw six pitches at least 8.0% of the time in 2022, but only one of them – his four-seam fastball – had a batting average lower than .266 against it. In his rookie season, Kirby managed a 3.39 ERA, 3.31 xERA, and a 2.99 FIP, despite the fact that he left far too many pitches in the center of the plate, which led to an abundance of hard contact against him.

His main deficiency was against right-handed batters, against which he had a 3.83 FIP, 1.52 WHIP, 21.7% strikeout percentage, and a .324 opponent batting average. His struggles came from not having a reliable secondary offering to complement his fastball and sinker. Righties had a .455 batting average against his curveball, a .387 average against his slider, and a .468 average against his changeup.

The good news is that Kirby has three different secondary offerings that he can tinker with to improve his results against right-handed hitters. The less exciting news is that none of them showed much promise in 2022. He has front-of-the-rotation potential, but he might still be a year or two away from unlocking it.

Seattle Mariners – Futures Pick & Prediction

Despite back-to-back 90-win campaigns, the Mariners are not particularly well-equipped to return to the postseason again in 2023. Defensively, they are weak up the middle at catcher and shortstop, which are two of the most important, if not the most important positions on the diamond.

The offense has pop, but there are few hitters that truly instill fear in opposing pitchers beyond Julio Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez. Even Rodriguez and Hernandez have exploitable approaches at the plate, which make them far from a guarantee to be MVP-candidates this summer.

The pitching staff is led by a true ace in Luis Castillo, but there are many question marks beyond that. The under on their full season win total is the smart lean.

PICK: Under 86.5 wins (-105, DraftKings)

Image Credit: Getty Images

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom