2023 Super Bowl Prop Bets: Luuch's Favorite Eagles-Chiefs Player Props
Looking for betting tips ahead of Sunday? In this article, Justin Carlucci breaks down his favorite Chiefs-Eagles player props for Super Bowl LVII. If you aren’t in a legal sports betting state, use our Vivid Picks promo code to get in on the action with a special sign-up bonus.
It’s hard to believe we’re about to wrap up another NFL season. It felt like yesterday we were arguing about zero-RB theories in best ball drafts, reaching for Dameon Pierce in re-drafts, while trying to coordinate with all of our difficult friends for a good ol’ fashion in-person home-league draft.
Well, the past is the past, and we’re in for a treat, as the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles will do battle on Sunday in Super Bowl LVII! Let’s check out some player prop lines and try to end the season with a bang!
Super Bowl Prop Bets for Eagles vs. Chiefs
DeVonta Smith Over 62.5 Receiving yards
Current Odds: -115 on BetMGM
A.J. Brown may not be lighting up the box score, but his presence on the field continues to open it up for the rest of the Birds’ offense. Across the last eight weeks, Brown and Smith have an identical target market share. Smith has had no fewer than eight targets in any game since 11/14 – except for last weekend’s thumping of the 49ers. There was no need to throw the ball in the second half and I am more than willing to throw that game out. Except for the 49ers’ game, Smith has hit this number in seven of those 10 games since Nov. 14. The Chiefs give up a ton of targets to opposing receivers (compared to tight ends and running backs), while I believe Smith (and Goedert) will continue to thrive on the other side of AJB.
DeVonta Smith Over 4.5 Receptions
Current Odds: -155 on DraftKings
I understand that Philly could and should run the ball quite a bit. However, DeVonta has cleared this number in 14 of 19 games played this season. How is this line not 5.5 on every book yet? Smith has an identical target share as teammate AJB over the last eight weeks. This is just a bad line and I’m willing to pay the juice.
Dallas Goedert Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
Current Odds: -125 on PointsBet
This line seems criminally low and it’s multiple yards higher on most major books in the industry. Goedert has gone over this number in nine of 14 games this season. His target market share across his last three games is slightly higher than it’s been over the last two months. The last two game scripts were very lopsided and run-heavy. There’s not really a fourth pass-catching option on this team, so I’m looking for Goedert to continue to have solid volume. The Chiefs have yielded about the league-average number of targets to tight ends. The Blitz has Goedert eclipsing this number as well.
Jerick McKinnon Under 20.5 Rushing Yards
Current Odds: -115 on BetMGM
I like McKinnon this week, but solely as a receiver. McKinnon got a fair share of work in the Jags divisional game, when Mahomes was super limited (playing injured), while Chad Henne even played! Reid knew he needed a run-heavy game script. Against Cinci, McKinnon only took four carries, with a more capable Mahomes at quarterback and Pacheco as the primary ball carrier. That marked four-straight games with five carries or less for McKinnon. KC finally committed to the rook being the bell cow. The Eagles’ front seven is fantastic and I don’t expect any of the KC ground game to get going. I like McKinnon’s receiving prop lines early in the week, but I’ll hammer under for his rushing total. He should not receive many carries this week. With CEH now reportedly to be active, there’s even more merit to taking this under.
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