49ers vs. Giants Showdown NFL DFS Lineup Advice for DraftKings & FanDuel

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Week 3 of the NFL kicks off with a matchup between the 49ers and Giants, two of last year’s NFC playoff teams, and I for one am certainly looking forward to another slate full of primetime DFS contests. San Francisco is favored by 10.5 points at home in this game – our first double-digit spread of the NFL season – and that could lead to some big ownership numbers on 49ers players. The ownership could get even more concentrated on the top players if Brandon Aiyuk (Questionable with a shoulder injury) sits in this game.

The other important injury news for this game is Saquon Barkley expected to miss the game for New York. Matt Breida has operated as Barkley’s back-up in the past, and Gary Brightwell should get some opportunities as well, with the division of usage unclear between the two. There are plenty of interesting angles to consider for this game and with up to a million dollars at stake for first place, I’m here with some quick lineup advice on how to get an edge on the field in our FanDuel and DraftKings single-game DFS entries.

49ers vs. Giants Showdown DFS Lineup Advice

How I Plan to Beat the Field

One of the most interesting aspects about this game that jumps out to me – and I touched on this in our Expert Survey – is that the most likely game scenario is the 49ers winning this game easily and the most popular player in this game will almost certainly be Christian McCaffrey, but I’m not sure those two things go together as easily as it appears. With 85 receptions and 5 receiving TDs last season, McCaffrey gets a good amount of points in the passing game, but those receiving fantasy points are more likely to happen in competitive games, and this might not be a competitive game. While McCaffrey can obviously put up huge games in any scenario, he also has an injury history, and the 49ers have aspirations to be playing in February. I’ll likely be under the field on McCaffrey, particularly in the CPT spot on DraftKings, and will make it a priority to emphasize opposing Giants players when I use him in lineups. Back-up RB Eli Mitchell, who saw no action last week, should be more involved this week and makes for an excellent value pivot from McCaffrey.

This game also features two teams, and while the injury situation with Brandon Aiyuk and large spread in favor of the 49ers may cause analysis for this game to focus on San Francisco, there are some unknowns with the Giants as well. We don’t know the division of work between Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell, and I’m expecting Breida to monopolize the ownership in this backfield. Wan’Dale Robinson could also be returning for New York, and while he may be on a snap count if he plays, he could also be more relevant than expected as a second-round sophomore WR who put up 100 yards on 9 receptions in his last game in Week 11 of last season.

There is a strong argument in this game to embrace the uncertainty with our DFS lineups and be overweight the projected lower-owned players in all of these scenarios, but I also may have a bias towards back-up RBs after the action on Monday Night this week.

Single-Game Rule I’m Willing to Break

Speaking of lineup construction, while we’ll want to set some rules in LineupHQ if we’re building multiple lineups, setting our rules too strictly can prevent us from getting to unique lineups. Each week I’ll aim to hit on “rules that can be broken” for our lineups.

This week I’m going to be very liberal with pairing my QBs with WRs and vice-versa. I’m also less likely to pair the star RB from this game with his own defense.

It’s normally a good idea to give your lineups a sanity check to make sure they are telling a consistent, plausible story, and that usually makes me more inclined to pair QB MVP/CPT lineups with multiple WRs and TEs in the Flex spots, while pairing WR and TE MVP/CPT lineups with the same-team QB. In this game, however, with Daniel Jones putting up 787 rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs in his past 17 games, it may not be necessary to pair Jones with a receiving teammate. Brock Purdy should likely be paired with multiple receivers, however, I would also include Christian McCaffrey as a RB in that list of receivers.

For lineups with a WR or TE at the MVP/CPT spot, I may break some rules as well. WR Deebo Samuel usually receivers multiple rushing attempts per game, and if the 49ers are looking to give McCaffrey a lighter load, that could mean more ground work for Deebo rather than the direct back-up in Eli Mitchell. This makes pairing Samuel with Brock Purdy unnecessary. On the Giants side, Darren Waller has seen games with 14, 16, 17, and 19 targets over the past few seasons, and he could put up reception-but-not-touchdown points that see him in the MVP/CPT spot without QB Daniel Jones.

DraftKings Strategy

The first key difference between DraftKings versus FanDuel is the salary multiplier for the Captain position. It’s not just that a Captain’s fantasy points get the 1.5x multiplier, but his salary counts 1.5x against our cap as well. The next important consideration is the difference in the scoring rules. DraftKings gives a full point per reception instead of a half point on FanDuel, making receivers and pass-catching running backs ideal for the DraftKings format.

On DraftKings, one key difference that caught my attention is the pricing for the San Francisco D/ST unit, which is carrying a price tag of $5,800, much more expensive than the typical defense on a Showdown slate. The 49ers defense could see 25% ownership or more on this slate, and I’m not sure that ownership is justified. With a full point-per-reception and 300-yard passing and 100-yard rushing/receiving bonuses, the scoring totals on DraftKings can get much higher than FanDuel, while the scoring for Defense is the same on both sites. I have a hard time seeing the 49ers defense landing on the winning lineup at this price tag without at least one touchdown, which is likely to happen less than ownership indicates.

FanDuel Strategy

The flip side to the DraftKings scoring is the half-point awarded for receptions on FanDuel and no salary multiplier in the MVP position. This can make it very difficult to get away from the highest projected player at the MVP spot but makes it critical to have some intelligent differentiation in the AnyFLEX spots.

Christian McCaffrey makes much more sense as the MVP on a FanDuel single-game roster, where using more salary in the top spot doesn’t carry a salary multiplier penalty, but the consequence is that it will be much more difficult to differentiate our rosters from the field. With that being the case, with a twist on the DraftKings strategy I outlined above, I am more inclined to pair McCaffrey in the MVP spot with a kicker from either team, while leaving the pairing of the 49ers defense with lineups that use Eli Mitchell. Just like the scoring for defenses, the scoring for kickers is the same on both sites, but FanDuel scores tend to be lower overall. That can leave the kickers undervalued on FanDuel, where long field goals can count almost as much as a touchdown, without having to compete with the bonuses for receptions or yardage. I’ll take much of the ownership that may go to the defenses and use it on the lower-owned kickers, while pairing the more expensive 49ers defense with the value we can get selecting Eli Mitchell in the same lineup.

Good luck to everyone tonight, and enjoy – hopefully someone pulls down a million dollars again tonight!

Image Credit: Getty Images

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