MLB Daily Grind Down: Friday, July 19th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
- FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
- K% – Strikeout Percentage
- K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP
________________________________________________________________________________________
LA Dodgers vs. Washington
| 7:05 PM | LA Dodgers – ROAD | Washington – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.261 | 0.712 | 18.10% | 0.54 | 0.241 | 0.686 | 21.00% | 0.53 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.260 | 0.709 | 18.10% | 0.42 | 0.249 | 0.706 | 21.10% | 0.44 | |
| SP STATS | Nolasco – RHP | Strasburg – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.23 | 3.76 | 7.18 | 9.76 | 1.13 | 2.99 | 9.07 | 11.17 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.11 | 2.84 | 7.58 | 12.33 | 1.67 | 6.60 | 11.40 | 9.00 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
LAD vs R  | LAD BvP | WSN vs R | WSN BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
- Favored Team – WAS -160
Pitcher Grind Down
WAS – Stephen Strasburg is coming off of one of the worst performances in his career. And it was against the Marlins no less. I think you can chalk that start up to being a fluke because he had been pitching great in the few starts before that. Strasburg has been dominant at home all season with a 1.65 ERA and a 0.930 WHIP. The matchup against the recharged Dodgers may seem a bit scary, but I think he is still one of the best pitching options today. Target
LAD – Ricky Nolasco has already faced the Nationals twice this season even though he was on a different team. In those two starts, he was 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 11 K’s over 12 innings. I think there are better options out there tonight. The Nats offense is finally at full strength and looks like a tough team to get consecutive outs against. Avoid
Batter Grind Down
WAS – Bryce Harper had a very nice showing in the Home Run Derby and I think he might be stuck in that groove right now. Makes him a big boom or bust player tonight. He has great history against Nolasco going 9/20 with 2 HR’s and should be rostered in GPP’s. The rest of the Nats haven’t had much success against Nolasco, but I like the lefty/righty splits for both Span and LaRoche.
LAD – Strasburg has been a beast at home all season long and should come back refreshed and motivated after not making the All-Star team. Not a great spot for the Dodgers bats.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Tampa Bay vs. Toronto
| 7:07 PM | Tampa Bay – ROAD | Toronto – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.261 | 0.749 | 18.20% | 0.64 | 0.252 | 0.732 | 18.80% | 0.62 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.249 | 0.729 | 18.10% | 0.48 | 0.250 | 0.696 | 17.50% | 0.43 | |
| SP STATS | Price – LHP | Rogers – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.23 | 3.94 | 7.54 | 10.33 | 1.35 | 3.64 | 6.19 | 3.33 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 0.76 | 1.08 | 6.48 | 16.00 | 1.82 | 6.55 | 9.00 | 7.00 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| TBR vs R | TBR BvP | TOR vs L | TOR BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5
- Favored Team – TB -145
Pitcher Grind Down
TOR – Esmil Rogers is typically a guy that you would target your stack against, but he really hasn’t been that bad this year, especially considering where he pitches and the opponents he has to face every start. On the season he has a respectable 3.64 ERA and 1.348 WHIP. While I’m not going to recommend taking him against the Rays, I do think most people will over value the Rays bats tonight. Avoid
TB – David Price has looked really good in his last 3 starts since coming back from injury. His K numbers are back up and the best part is that he has been able to keep his pitch count way down which has allowed him to last deep into games. Toronto is a tough place to pitch so I wouldn’t pay top dollar for Price today, but if you can get him in the upper middle range for pitchers, he might be worth a shot. In Play
Batter Grind Down
TOR – Jose Bautista has had his way with Price in the past going 12/34 with 4 HR’s. But with Bautista, you always have to be prepared that he will go 0-4 with 3 strike outs. I would stay away from him unless it’s a GPP. Price has owned the rest of the Jays bats.
TB – Rogers has actually had some great success against these Rays bats. The best any of the Rays have done off of him is to go 2/3 with a HR which was rookie Wil Myers. I think you can expect a few runs out of the Rays, but I think Rogers makes them work for their runs. Desmond Jennings is in play thanks to his ability to steal bases and hit HR’s.
________________________________________________________________________________________
NY Yankees vs. Boston
| 7:10 PM | NY Yankees – ROAD | Boston – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.243 | 0.684 | 19.60% | 0.54 | 0.277 | 0.793 | 20.60% | 0.70 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.235 | 0.649 | 20.00% | 0.39 | 0.255 | 0.723 | 22.20% | 0.44 | |
| SP STATS | Pettitte – LHP | Doubront – LHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.38 | 4.39 | 6.51 | 9.32 | 1.41 | 3.91 | 8.45 | 10.18 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.64 | 5.19 | 3.68 | 7.37 | 1.06 | 1.98 | 7.50 | 14.60 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| NYY vs L | NYY BvP | BOS vs L | BOS BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 9.5
- Favored Team – BOS -150
Pitcher Grind Down
BOS – Felix Doubront is your ultimate risk/reward pitcher. He averages around a K per inning which is always nice, but he often struggles with his command and ends up getting himself in tough situations by walking so many batters. Tonight could be a decent spot for him though as the Yankees are only batting .235 against lefties with a .649 OPS. Could be a sneaky play in GPP’s. In Play
NYY – Andy Pettitte is officially starting to look old. He has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 5 starts and now has to pitch against this tough Red Sox lineup in Fenway. Avoid
Batter Grind Down
BOS – I’m not a huge fan of BvP numbers unless the numbers are really outstanding just because the sample size is always so small and most of the at-bats by the players were years ago. Such is the case with Dustin Pedroia, he is only 9/42 lifetime against Pettitte but I think you can throw that out the window. This is a different Pettitte and Pedroia crushes lefties and has been raking at home this season. Love Pedroia tonight. I also like Daniel Nava as a sneaky play.
NYY – The Yankees really struggle with left hand pitching because most of their bats right now happen to be left handed. I think Robinson Cano is overpriced for this matchup, but if you have to take a Yankee, I wouldn’t mind Brett Gardner because he can draw walks and run the bases.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Philadelphia vs. NY Mets
| 7:10 PM | Philadelphia – ROAD | NY Mets – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.257 | 0.714 | 19.60% | 0.54 | 0.235 | 0.680 | 22.30% | 0.54 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.262 | 0.716 | 19.10% | 0.42 | 0.234 | 0.679 | 22.20% | 0.42 | |
| SP STATS | Kendrick – RHP | Hefner – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.27 | 3.75 | 5.36 | 9.38 | 1.15 | 3.33 | 6.83 | 8.74 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.67 | 5.25 | 3.00 | 6.50 | 0.57 | 1.71 | 7.29 | 14.00 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| PHI vs R | PHI BvP | NYM vs R | NYM BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 8.0
- Favored Team – NYM -115
Pitcher Grind Down
NYM – Jeremy Hefner has really pitched well over the last month and a half. Over his last 8 starts, he has posted an ERA under 2 which is really quite surprising. He has pitched really well at home this season and it’s weird to say, but I actually think he makes a great play today against the Phillies even though Vegas isn’t giving him much love. Target
PHI – Kyle Kendrick has given up 10 earned runs over his last 3 starts and has only managed to get a combined 6 strike outs in those starts. He isn’t pitching really well right now, and even a matchup with the Mets isn’t enough to make me want to take him. Avoid
Batter Grind Down
NYM – It’s not very often that I target Mets hitters, but tonight could be a good night to roll a couple of them out there. David Wright and Daniel Murphy are by far the Mets best hitters and are both worth a look against the struggling Kendrick.
PHI – The Phillies have had some big games against Hefner, but Hefner has been lights out lately. Something has to give here and I think it’s going to be the Phillies offense that is the let down.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
| 7:10 PM | Pittsburgh – ROAD | Cincinnati – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.243 | 0.697 | 22.10% | 0.54 | 0.250 | 0.722 | 19.90% | 0.58 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.243 | 0.697 | 21.70% | 0.41 | 0.249 | 0.718 | 19.60% | 0.44 | |
| SP STATS | Liriano – LHP | Leake – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.19 | 2.00 | 9.45 | 14.60 | 1.12 | 2.69 | 5.46 | 10.28 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 0.81 | 1.13 | 7.31 | 17.50 | 1.07 | 4.05 | 2.75 | 7.55 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| PIT vs R | PIT BvP | CIN vs L | CIN BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
- Favored Team – CIN -125
Pitcher Grind Down
CIN – Mike Leake has had an impressive season and he continues to fly under the radar, even in the daily fantasy world. He’s posted a 2.69 ERA and a 1.120 WHIP and half of those starts came in the Great American Ballpark. He’s pitched well against the Pirates this season and should continue that trend tonight. Target
PIT – Francisco Liriano has been one of the great stories of the year. He has looked phenomenal in his 12 starts and has posted a solid 2.00 ERA. In his two starts against the Reds this season, he has 17 K’s which is always good to see, but he did give up 2 HR’s in his start in Great American a couple weeks ago. I think Liriano has a slightly bigger upside than Leake, but I think Leake is the much better value. In Play
Batter Grind Down
CIN – The Reds have managed to hit for a good average against Liriano, but why take a chance on the Reds against a red hot pitcher when you can find much better options elsewhere?
PIT – Same goes for the Pirates, sure they could score a few runs, but I like to take hitters that have much more potential than the Pirates do tonight.
________________________________________________________________________________________
