MLB Daily Grind Down June 4th Part 3
Minnesota at Kansas City
| Minnesota | Kansas City | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauffman Stadium | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| P.J. Walters – (2-0), 4.5 ERA, 5.25 K/9, 1.667 WHIP | Jeremy Guthrie – (5-3), 3.84 ERA, 4.99 K/9, 1.33 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (7-19 H/AB) 0.368 BA-A, 15.79 K%, 1.053 OPS-A | PvB | (25-80 H/AB) 0.313 BA-A, 13.75 K%, 1.113 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 3 ERA, 1 HRA, 4.5 K/9, 1.5 WHIP | HOME | (3-1), 3.03 ERA, 5 HRA, 3.6 K/9, 0.91 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
MIN BvP  | MIN vs R | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored KC -132
Pitchers
- Home Jeremy Guthrie has pitched well at home this year. He has a solid 3.03 ERA and an even better WHIP of 0.910. However, looking at the BvP stats, the Twins have been able to hit him well in the past so it comes down to whether you trust recent performance or past performance. In Play
- Away I’m never a big fan of taking underdog pitchers unless that pitcher is an ace going up against another ace. That’s not the case today, P.J. Walters gets the start and I’m pretty much going to pretend like he’s not even an option. Avoid
Batters
- Home The Royals bats have been ice cold lately, but maybe Walters can get them going a bit. Alex Gordon price is dropping by the day so he provides some great value. I also think the lefty Hosmer could be in for nice night.
- Away Escobar, Dozier, Mauer, Doumit, and Willingham have all had success against Guthrie in the past. While that doesn’t mean that they are guaranteed to do so today, I don’t think this is a bad spot for them. Mauer is the only bat I really trust though.
Baltimore at Houston
| Baltimore | Houston | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minute Maid Park | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| Freddy Garcia – (2-2), 3.57 ERA, 3.85 K/9, 1.026 WHIP | Dallas Keuchel – (2-2), 5.1 ERA, 5.72 K/9, 1.61 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (7-50 H/AB) 0.14 BA-A, 26 K%, 0.44 OPS-A | PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 3.09 ERA, 2 HRA, 2.3 K/9, 1.114 WHIP | HOME | (1-2), 6.3 ERA, 6 HRA, 6.3 K/9, 1.867 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| BAL BvP | BAL vs L | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9.0
- Favored BAL -146
Pitchers
- Home Dallas Keuchel should be ignored just like the rest of the Astros pitchers. He has an ERA over 6 at home this season and faces a very tough Baltimore team. Why risk it when there are so many other better options? Avoid
- Away The Astros bats never seem to show up when you expect them to and then they show up randomly against good pitchers. Tonight is another one of those nights where you expect them to have a good game because Freddy Garcia just isn’t very good, but you never know with these Astros. Maybe take a shot on Garcia in a GPP, but not in H2H’s. In Play
Batters
- Home Garcia’s numbers don’t look bad this season, but he is not a great pitcher. The Astros should be in a spot to score 4+ runs tonight but you just never know with them. If you like taking big risk/reward plays, the Astros are for you.
- Away Love the Orioles today. J.J. Hardy and Matt Wieters are both much better against lefties than righties so make sure to keep them on your radar. In addition to them, the rest of the team is in a good spot, but I will take the other right hand bats of Adam Jones and Manny Machado.
Arizona at St. Louis
| Arizona | St. Louis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busch Stadium | 8:15 PM | ||||||
| Wade Miley – (3-5), 5.01 ERA, 6.87 K/9, 1.386 WHIP | Joe Kelly – (0-2), 6.75 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 1.978 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (10-28 H/AB) 0.357 BA-A, 10.71 K%, 0.857 OPS-A | PvB | (7-25 H/AB) 0.28 BA-A, 16 K%, 1.08 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-3), 4.2 ERA, 5 HRA, 7.8 K/9, 1.2 WHIP | HOME | (0-2), 8.53 ERA, 1 HRA, 9.9 K/9, 2.368 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| ARI BvP | ARI vs R | STL BvP | STL vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored STL -135
Pitchers
- Home I tried to warn you guys yesterday about taking young pitchers before they have proven themselves. Seems like almost everyone fell into the Wacha trap last night. But he was so cheap that it was hard to resist. Tonight Joe Kelly gets his first start of the season and he has struggled as a reliever. I don’t expect him to do much in his first start, especially against this D-Backs team that can put up runs quick. Avoid
- Away Wade Miley hasn’t been as sharp as he was last season. His ERA and WHIP are both up and the Cardinals are such a tough offense that it’s hard for me to see him having a good game. They all seem to hit lefties well and Miley could be in trouble. Avoid
Batters
- Home I think the 8.5 over/under is a bit low. The Cardinals all hit lefties well and have been putting up a good number of runs lately. I’m targeting the 4, 5, and 6 batters of Craig, Molina, and Freese. They have all been playing well and are all good against lefties.
- Away Expect Kelly to struggle a bit. Gerardo Parra looks to be in a favorable matchup as does Miguel Montero. Both have the lefty/righty splits in their favor. Paul Goldschmidt is also in play as he is proving he can hit righties too.
Chicago Cubs at LA Angels
| Chicago Cubs | LA Angels | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel Stadium | 10:05 PM | ||||||
| Matt Garza – (1-0), 3.38 ERA, 9 K/9, 1.125 WHIP | Jason Vargas – (5-3), 3.34 ERA, 5.98 K/9, 1.357 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (15-54 H/AB) 0.278 BA-A, 20.37 K%, 0.852 OPS-A | PvB | (9-41 H/AB) 0.22 BA-A, 21.95 K%, 0.585 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-0), 4 ERA, 1 HRA, 12 K/9, 1.333 WHIP | HOME | (4-1), 2.53 ERA, 4 HRA, 5.9 K/9, 1.125 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CHC BvP | CHC vs L | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored LAA -148
Pitchers
- Home The Angels finally win a game! And they could possibly make it two in a row tonight against the Cubs. Jason Vargas has been much better lately and is actually one of my favorite picks value wise at the pitcher position. The Cubs are only batting .234 against lefties and are batting .222 on the road. Should be a monster night for Vargas. Target
- Away Matt Garza has been very good this season, but has been let down by his bullpen. The problem with this matchup is that the big bats of the Angels hit the fastball well. I think Garza will pitch OK, but he won’t make value and will likely take the loss. Avoid
Batters
- Home Mike Trout price has been dropping lately which is great news for us. I seem to talk about him every time I write this column so you know how much upside he gives you. I like him and believe it or not, I think Mark Trumbo is in a good spot for a Trum-bomb.
- Away I don’t like the Cubs bats at all today, simple as that.
San Diego at LA Dodgers
| San Diego | LA Dodgers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodger Stadium | 10:10 PM | ||||||
| Jason Marquis – (6-2), 3.82 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 1.503 WHIP | Clayton Kershaw – (5-3), 1.85 ERA, 8.47 K/9, 0.918 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (41-173 H/AB) 0.237 BA-A, 15.03 K%, 0.688 OPS-A | PvB | (45-190 H/AB) 0.237 BA-A, 23.68 K%, 0.7 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-1), 3.68 ERA, 5 HRA, 4.5 K/9, 1.5 WHIP | HOME | (4-2), 1.38 ERA, 4 HRA, 9.2 K/9, 0.846 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| SDP BvP | SDP vs L | LAD BvP | LAD vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 6.5
- Favored LAD -208
Pitchers
- Home Whenever you see the Dodgers over/under this low, it’s a safe bet to assume that Clayton Kershaw is pitching. Kershaw has a great matchup against the Padres. He will look to avenge his loss to them earlier in the season and I think he does so in dominating fashion. Kershaw has a 1.38 ERA at home with 9 K’s per 9 innings. I could easily see a complete game in this one. Target
- Away Never take a pitcher that is this big of an underdog, just make it a rule. Sorry Jason Marquis, no offense.
Batters
- Home Yaisel Puig with 2 bombs last night, what a way to burst onto the scene. I apologize to the guy last night that asked if he should take Puig or Ichiro and I told him Ichiro. My bad! Keep riding the Puig until the Puig slows down. Also, Hanley Ramirez has good history against Marquis if he is in the lineup.
- Away Just pretend like the Padres aren’t available. Both the pitcher and the batters.
