NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 30th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Dallas at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -6.5, 198.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
Dallas
The Mavericks made another late rally in Game 4, but it was too little too late and we now head back to San Antonio with the series all tied at 2 games a piece. The way this series has gone, this game could go either way, but now that the Spurs are back in control of the series, I expect them to take care of business at home.
In terms of potential fantasy plays in this game, the Mavericks just don’t have many viable options. Dirk Nowitzki has not produced to the level that we are accustomed to, Monta Ellis has been very inconsistent, and Jose Calderon just doesn’t have the ball in his hands often enough to make him a viable fantasy option night in and night out. The only players that stand out here are the punt options of Shawn Marion and Samuel Dalembert.
- Samuel Dalembert – Big Dal has now scored 33 and 25 FP’s in the last two games in this series and has played at least 25 minutes in each of those games. If he is going to see that many minutes moving forward, he will make a terrific punt option for the rest of the series. His price around the industry is still close to minimum salary and he could really pay off in both cash games and GPP’s.
San Antonio
The Spurs picked up a big win in Game 4 despite pretty pedestrian efforts from Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Kawhi Leonard. They now head back to San Antonio with home-court advantage and they are 6.5 point favorites for Game 5. Once again, I will continue to heavily target the Spurs in this series. Not only is this a fast-paced series, but the veterans on the Spurs are also seeing more minutes than they did during the regular season. Tony Parker makes a nice GPP play, but he’s been too inconsistent to trust in cash games. Tiago Splitter is averaging over 27 FP’s per game and makes a nice punt play.
- Tim Duncan – Duncan is averaging 18.5 points per game in this series, but he has only had 1 game where he recorded double-digit rebounds. That’s very unlike the old fundamental, especially now that his workload has increased. I think everyone will be sleeping on him in Game 5 which makes him an even more attractive play in my eyes. Dollar for dollar, Duncan is my top PF play on the board.
- Manu Ginobili – I’m pretty sure that I could just copy and paste the same paragraph for Ginobili every time that he is on the schedule. As long as his price doesn’t shoot up, I will continue targeting him as a value play. Manu has scored at least 27 FP’s in every game so far and doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon.
Brooklyn at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -3.5, 190.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
Brooklyn
The Nets head to Toronto after losing a big lead to the Raptors in Game 4. This series will likely go 7 games and it seems like every single game is a toss up. In terms of fantasy options, this series has been lacking viable fantasy plays because it has been played at such a slow pace and both of these teams own a top 10 defense. There is really only one player that I will be targeting in cash games here, but I do think Joe Johnson and Shaun Livingston both deserve GPP consideration as they have both had solid games respective to their salaries in this series.
- Paul Pierce – Pierce has scored at least 26 FP’s in every game this series and continues to be under-owned across the industry. In the playoffs, I love using veteran players and there are few players with as much playoff experience as Pierce. Look for him to continue the 26+ FP streak in Game 5.
Toronto
The Raptors picked up a big win in Game 4 to steal home-court advantage back and have to be ecstatic heading back home to play Game 5 in front of their raucous home crowd. As far as the fantasy plays in this series, they have been few and far between for the Raptors. Kyle Lowry has had high bright spots but has not been reaching value at his expensive price tag, Amir Johnson has had two great games and two terrible games, and Jonas Valanciunas has been very inconsistent as well. Those three players all make decent GPP plays, but the only cash game play that I will be targeting here is DeRozan.
- DeMar DeRozan – Over his last 3 games, DeRozan is averaging 34 FP’s per game. He has been their go-to scorer late in games and I expect that to continue throughout the series. At first, I reluctant to target DeRozan because he hasn’t had any playoff experience, but he has played well and should be fired up for Game 5 in Toronto.
Portland at Houston
- Vegas Line – Houston -5.5, 213.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
Portland
The Blazers took a 3-1 lead in this series and now only need 1 more win in the next 3 games to move on to the 2nd round. The good news for the Rockets is that 2 of the final 3 games will be played in Houston so they are still very much alive in this series. The Blazers have been one of the best teams to target in the first round because defense has been an afterthought in this series, especially for the Rockets. Both teams are pushing the pace and both teams are filled with viable fantasy options.
All five starters are in play here, but it is tough to target Robin Lopez because he has not been getting the minutes in crunch time. I always like taking players that will be in the game when the game is on the line. Wesley Matthews posted a 35 FP effort in Game 4 and could make a solid value play again in Game 5. Mo Williams is also coming off of a big Game 4, he makes a nice punt play in a GPP. Finally, we have LaMarcus Aldridge who is having a career series. While I love him in this matchup, I think his price is a little too high now that the sites have adjusted it to his current level of production.
- Nicolas Batum – Batum has scored at least 34 FP’s in 3 of the first 4 games in this series and has terrific upside against a Rockets team that doesn’t like to play defense. Batum does everything on the floor well and can fill up all areas of the stat sheet which really makes him a terrific fantasy play because he doesn’t have to rely on one area for his fantasy production.
- Damian Lillard – Lillard has had a breakout series and it looks like he has had years of playoff experience under his belt despite this being his first rodeo. Lillard is averaging close to 40 FP’s per game in this series and should be targeted in all leagues.
Houston
The Rockets are in a must win situation. If they go out in 5 games in the first round, this will be a terribly disappointing season for a team that had championship aspirations. The key to this series has been the Blazers defense on James Harden. He is shooting less than 35% from the field. At this point, it’s too risky to trust Harden in any cash games, but he always has that high ceiling that makes him an interesting GPP play. Chandler Parsons on the other hand makes a terrific cash game play because he has such a high floor. Omer Asik and Patrick Beverley are both decent punt plays if the price is right.
- Dwight Howard – We have been waiting for Dwight to look like the Dwight of old all season long and now that we have finally seen it, the Rockets can’t seem to pick up a win. Dwight has posted at least 44 FP’s in every game so far this series and has at least 24 points and 14 rebounds in every game. Dwight is the top Center on the board and should be targeted in all leagues.