NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 7 - Page 3
St. Louis at Carolina
| St. Louis Rams | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Bank of America Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 6 | 42 | 18 | -6 | 42 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.5 | 15 | 20 | 28 | Offense | 21.8 | 19 | 27 | 7 | |
| Defense | 25.7 | 22 | 18 | 30 | Defense | 13.6 | 2 | 7 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina | 1 | 14 | 7 | 10 | St. Louis | 15 | 31 | 21 | 5 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Givens | 38 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 4.0 | Smith | 42 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 7.0 | |
| Pettis | 37 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 1.0 | Lafell | 27 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.0 | |
| Austin | 41 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 1.0 | Ginn Jr. | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Cook | 35 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | Olsen | 34 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | |
ST. LOUIS RAMS
The Rams looked very impressive in their destruction of the Texans last week. Bradford threw 3 TD passes and the defense not only sacked Texans QBs five times, but also had 2 defensive TDs. They will look to remain hot this week against the Panthers.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – This is not a good week to buy Sam Bradford. Carolina has the #1 ranked fantasy defense against the QB, allowing only 11.3 FPPG. The Panthers have not given up more than 1 passing TD to any QB this year.
RBs – Zac Stacy has become the #1 back and has 78+ yards in each of his last 2 games. However, only one RB has rushed for more the 62 yards in a game all season VS Carolina and their 4th ranked rushing defense. I think it is safe to avoid him.
Receiving – According to PFF the Panthers have the 7th ranked secondary in terms of pass coverage in the NFL. No Rams receiver has more than 5 receptions in the last 2 games. Carolina has the 7th best fantasy defense VS the WR and 10th best against the TE.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Panthers walked all over the Vikings in week 6 smashing them 35-10. The Carolina defense suffocated the Vikings offense and Cam Newton exploded to help win many fantasy owners some GPPs. The Panthers can go to 3-3 with a win over the beatable Rams this week.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Finally Cam Newton broke out and had that monster game we were waiting for. He did not throw an INT for the first time since week 1 and also rushed 9 times. I expect him to have another solid week against the Rams. St. Louis is allowing a 99.8 QB rating.
RBs – DeAngelo Williams continues to get the majority of touches, yet loses the goal line carries. Williams had 117 yards from scrimmage last week and the Rams allow the most YFS to RBs. Tolbert is averaging over 8 touches a game and gets the goal line carries.
Receiving – Steve Smith scored his first TD since week one, but has not had more than 60 yards receiving all season. Brandon LaFell has 3 TDs and 69 yards per game in his last 3 games with only 11 receptions. Olsen had only 2 catches and 19 yards last week nursing a foot injury. With the Rams being ranked 5th in FPPG to the TE and Olsen in a walking boot again, I think it is best to avoid him until he is healthy.
Chicago at Washington
| Chicago Bears | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | FedExField | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 0 | 50 | 25 | 0 | 50 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.7 | 3 | 13 | 17 | Offense | 21.4 | 20 | 10 | 10 | |
| Defense | 26.8 | 25 | 23 | 12 | Defense | 28.6 | 27 | 24 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington | 23 | 29 | 28 | 19 | Chicago | 14 | 19 | 16 | 20 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Marshall | 58 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 11.0 | Garcon | 59 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 15.0 | |
| Jeffery | 50 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | Hankerson | 28 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | |
| Bennett | 15 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | Moss | 29 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | |
| Bennett | 45 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 7.0 | Reed | 21 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | |
CHICAGO BEARS
The Bears were unimpressive in their win over the Giants in week 6. They really should have destroyed the Giants with the way Manning and company played. This week they will face the Redskins and their terrible defense. It should be a big day for fantasy stars Cutler, Marshall, Jeffery and Forte.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Jay Cutler has at least 242 yards and 2 TDs in 5/6 games. Look for him to pad his stats this weekend. The Redskins have the 24th ranked pass defense and allow 20.3 FPPG to the QB.
RBs – Matt Forte has over 90 YFS in every game this season. Washington allows the 3rd most FPPG to the RB with 24. I think Forte is in for a huge day.
Receiving – WAS is giving up the 5th most FPPG to the WR. Alshon Jeffery has been hit or miss all season. He has had some monster weeks and some duds, although I think he is safe in this matchup. Marshall will likely see a lot of DeAngelo Hall, but I expect him to do a better job than Dez Bryant did a week ago. Marshall is 9th overall in targets this season and had 10 last week with 3 coming in the red zone. According to PFF the Redskins have the 2nd worst secondary in the NFL in terms of coverage. Martellus Bennett is tied for 3rd in red zone targets at TE with 10. WAS allows 11.3 FPPG to the TE.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The Redskins looked awful against the Cowboys Sun night. RG III ran a little bit more but was terribly inaccurate with a lot of his throws. The defense continues to be a major issue, but if RG III cannot keep the offense on the field, it is hard to blame the defense entirely. They will look to bounce back against the Bears in week 7.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – RG III is just not the same player. I understand his running game being off, but his accuracy is not the same as it was last year. Perhaps he can take advantage of a banged up Bears team. The Bears are allowing the 4th most passing plays of 15+ yards.
RBs – Alfred Morris is in line for a big day. If Brandon Jacobs can walk all over them, what will Morris do? Chicago is giving up 21.1 FPPG to the RB.
Receiving – Pierre Garcon continues to be RG III favorite target. Garcon leads all WRs with 11.8 targets per game. Jordan Reed looked outstanding last week even though he only had 4 receptions. He is explosive for his size and seemed to be open quite often, look for a bigger role from him as the season progresses. Reed makes a nice value/punt play at TE this week.
San Francisco at Tennessee
| San Francisco 49ers | Tennessee Titans | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05PM ET | LP Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -4 | 40 | 22 | 4 | 40 | 18 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.2 | 13 | 30 | 4 | Offense | 21.3 | 21 | 29 | 17 | |
| Defense | 19.7 | 9 | 6 | 20 | Defense | 19.2 | 8 | 10 | 19 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tennessee | 4 | 27 | 3 | 23 | San Francisco | 7 | 21 | 10 | 8 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Boldin | 50 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 8.0 | Washington | 42 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 4.0 | |
| Williams | 21 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | Wright | 45 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 8.0 | |
| Patton | 2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | Britt | 23 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | ||
| Davis | 35 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | Walker | 29 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The 49ers got the 3rd win a row over the Cardinals in week 6. Vernon Davis had a monster game and the 49ers rushed for almost 150 yards. SF played another solid defensive game as well, forcing 2 fumbles and picking off Palmer twice. They will look for their 4th straight win over the Titans in week 7.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – The Titans have the 10th ranked pass defense and are allowing the 4th fewest FPPG to the QB. Kaepernick has only thrown over 167 yards once in the last 5 weeks.
RBs – Frank Gore is averaging over 104 YPG in his last 4 games and Tennessee is allowing the 7th highest YFS to RBs.
Receiving -Anquan Boldin could see a lot of corner Alterraun Verner, who Pro Football Focus grades as the best corner in the NFL. Boldin is averaging just 42.6 YPG since week 1. Per PFF, the Titans also have the 4th best pass coverage unit in the NFL. Vernon Davis has 268 yards and 3 TDs in his last 2 games. Tennessee ranks 23rd against the TE, allowing 12.1 FPPG.
TENNESSEE TITANS
The Titans played quite well in Seattle last week, especially their defense. Losing Locker has really hurt them, as Ryan Fitzpatrick has struggled, throwing 4 INTs in his last 2 games. With Fitzpatrick at QB and CJ2K aging, there is not much to like for fantasy purposes with the Titans.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – SF has the 6th best pass defense in the NFL. Fitzpatrick has more picks than TDs this season. Look elsewhere.
RBs – Chris Johnson has 71 total rushing yards in his last 3 weeks combined and the 49ers are only allowing 3.8 YPC.
Receiving -With Fitzpatrick’s inability to make consistent accurate throws and the 49ers defense, I think you need to pass on all Titans receivers this week.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
| Baltimore Ravens | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25PM ET | Heinz Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 1 | 41 | 20 | -1 | 41 | 21 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.3 | 18 | 12 | 27 | Offense | 17.6 | 27 | 7 | 31 | |
| Defense | 21.5 | 13 | 17 | 7 | Defense | 23.2 | 18 | 4 | 22 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh | 2 | 23 | 9 | 3 | Baltimore | 16 | 1 | 23 | 21 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Smith | 56 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 4.0 | Brown | 53 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 11.0 | |
| Brown | 30 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | Sanders | 44 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 6.0 | |
| Doss | 20 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 6.0 | Wheaton | 6 | 1.5 | 5.0 | ||
| Clark | 35 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 6.0 | Miller | 19 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 7.0 | |
BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Ravens played a great defensive game in week 6 VS the Packers, but the offense could not get going until late and it was not enough as they fell 19-17. Joe Flacco was not good early on fumbling twice, but ended up with 342 yards and 2 TDs, while Rice and the Ravens running game was non-existent. Baltimore will look to get back on track in week VS the Steelers.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – The Steelers held Joe Flacco to under 200 yards in both meeting last year and allow the 2nd fewest FPPG to the QB.
RBs – I do not know if Ray Rice is still nursing an injury but he is not explosive at all these days. His longest run in the last 3 weeks has been 11 yards. Pittsburgh allows the fewest receiving yards per game to the RB.
Receiving – Torrey Smith has not had much success against the Steelers secondary over the years. Pittsburgh has the 4th best pass defense and has only allowed two WRs to go over 52 yards all season. In their last 17 regular season games the Steelers have allowed just two TDs to TEs.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Steelers got their first win of the season over the Jets in week 6. Pittsburgh finally created a turnover forcing two Geno Smith INTs as their defense led them to victory. Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Heath Miller all had solid games in what was a defensive battle. The Steelers need a big win over Baltimore in week 7.
Fantasy Relevant
QB – Big Ben only has 1 TD in 4 out of 5 games and the Ravens have only allowed 3 TD passes in their last 5 games.
RBs – Bell had a tough week against the NYJ and now faces the Ravens’ #1 ranked fantasy defense VS the RB.
Receiving – Antonio Brown has 30 receptions, 370 yards and 2 TDs in his last 3 games. The Baltimore Ravens rank 23rd in FPPG to the WR. Sanders was solid last week, but is in a tough spot this week. Heath Miller is averaging 77 YPG in his past 2 and the Ravens are allowing 12 FPPG to the TE.