Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, April 4th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2016-04-08 18:22:57

Are we really back here already? I couldn’t be more thrilled to be back for my third season writing about pitching on RotoGrinders. Back when I started doing this (I mean originally, not just for RG), I felt like I was looking at things in a way that not many other daily fantasy baseball players were. Many were still using more traditional stats. As mentioned in Al Smizzle’s Staying Ahead of the Research Curve in MLB thread in the forum last week though, it now may be the norm for players to use K%, xFIP, and SIERA. I barely even feel the need to explain a lot of this stuff anymore, but still hope and believe there’s something unique here to offer.

Many returning readers will may recognize some of the changes this year. Much of it is simply a case of rearranging things to put them in more appropriate places, avoid repetition, or even just make things look a bit nicer. I’ll cover those all in the open here today and then probably supply a link to this going forward. For that reason, even though there are only 12 games, this will likely be the longest article of the season. You’ll also notice that some of the stats don’t show up yet, which is obviously because the 2016 season does not exist yet. In some instances, we’ll use 2015 stats until switching over next week.

2016 Changes

Main Chart – The Combined columns (K%, BB%, LD%, HR/FB%, and IFFB%) have been cut off. Why? They were initially created because I didn’t have room to flesh out all of the splits that go into it, but now all of those components are shown below. I was never really comfortable with weighting all of those factors into one number and now you are able to do decide how important each split yourself. Lastly, it probably looks nicer with less scrolling.

K/BB Charts – No significant changes.

Batted Ball Charts – There’s a bit of rearranging, some addition and some subtraction here. Gone are LD% and IFFB% because we weren’t really using them much and LD% in particular is a highly volatile stat. In their place are Hard% and Hard-Soft%, which we alluded to often, but never showed last year. LD% and IFFB% for the pitcher’s current season will still be available in the BABIP Chart. A last addition is the current season stats for the pitcher. (This was not added to the K/BB Chart because you can see current season K% for pitchers in another elsewhere in the article.)

K/SwStr Chart & ERA Estimators Chart – No significant changes, but season averages in the header will now strip out reliever performances and only reflect starting pitcher averages across the league.

BABIP Chart – This is where the LD% goes now. Remember that it’s more of a descriptive stat than a predictive one, it can tell you something about why a pitcher’s BABIP currently sits where it does.

One last thing to mention is that the park factors are still from last season right now. Seamheads.com promised me on Twitter that there was a big update coming soon and I really like their 3 year factors so I’ll hold out a little longer. Now, it’s time to get this show on the road.

Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.

Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.

There’s a lot of nothing here, but we’re not entirely devoid of information. It may become more difficult as we get through the rotation the first or second time, but most these guys, we know who they are. We probably also have some ideas about the lineups they’ll face (even if those aren’t available as this is being written on Fri/Sat).

Chris Sale was a veritable beast last year in every sense except some of the traditional stats like Wins and ERA, where he was just average due to a career high .323 BABIP and some questionable defense. His 2.29 Road xFIP last season is behind only Kershaw’s Home/Road mark today as is his 2.54 SIERA over the last two years. His K% is well above 30% in both areas as well with low hard hit rates and an average HR/FB. He starts the season in a great park against a questionable offense, but one that likes to platoon, so I’d expect him to face a lineup full of RHBs, against which he has a very successful career .289 wOBA.

Clayton Kershaw is a pitching God among talented, but more ordinary men. Remember when he started off rough last year and everyone wanted to know what was wrong with him? Absolutely nothing. (Yeah, he was allowing a bit more hard contact and actually finished with a rather high 12.9 HR/FB on the road.) His ERA regressed towards his immortal metrics in the end. I still contend he would have been a worthy Cy Young recipient last season and would have given him my vote had I one. Baseball happens and he could start off sluggish again, but the best bet is that he easily dispatches the fathers of San Diego.

Cole Hamels had a very inconsistent season in 2015, occasionally allowing too many bombs and following it up with streaks of brilliance. In all, he was very good, but not a great pitcher last year, especially when matched up against this batch of arms today. Even his 3.21 Home xFIP last season is more difficult to quantify split between two teams and parks. He faces a Seattle team in Texas that has some RH thump, including one of the premier RH thumpers in the game. He has very little separation vs LH and RH batters throughout his career with a slightly reverse platoon split and Seattle has plenty to attack with from the LH side too.

Corey Kluber initially struggled to defend his 2014 Cy Young Award, but the peripherals were there most of the way and he finished with a respectable 3.49 ERA that was still a bit above his estimators. He also dealt with a lingering hamstring issue down the stretch that may have held him in check until a dominant close to the season at home vs a mailed it in at the All Star break Boston offense. There’s no reason not to expect him to be a dominant force yet again in Cleveland and he may even benefit enough from a likely improved defense to pull his ERA closer to his estimates. He starts against that same Boston team at home and who really knows what to expect from this offense after what we’ve seen the last few years. The park plays mostly to his favor except against LH power (David Ortiz).

Dallas Keuchel became one of my favorite pitcher in 2015 on his way to a much deserved Cy Young. Extreme ground ball pitchers that excel at contact management are generally valuable in real life baseball. Bret Anderson, when healthy, would be one that comes to mind. Jaime Garcia is another. This guy, though, adds an element that this type of pitcher rarely does and that’s an above average strikeout rate, which makes him incredibly valuable in any format. He was the premier contact manager in the game, though he was just average vs RHBs on the road (3.73 xFIP, 17.8 K%) and did allow a few more HRs. This not a terrible park for LH pitchers though and the Yankee offense not only leans LH, but no longer seems to be the juggernaut of years past.

David Price cashed in this off-season and finds himself beginning his career with his fourth team in a great park for LH pitching today. One of the chief strengths in his game is that he consistently pitches deep into starts. He’s one of two pitchers (and the only mortal one) on today’s board to average over seven innings per start over the last two years. He doesn’t walk batters and that allows him to throw fewer pitches, which allows him to pitch longer. So although he’s only slightly above average in most other marks among today’s group (which still makes him a stud overall), it’s something that definitely enhances his value. To be honest, I don’t really know what to expect from Cleveland offensively, but consider this a good spot for his Boston debut.

Felix Hernandez had an above average season last year…….for an average pitcher. For him it was not a success and his worst entry since 2008, nor can we really blame it on things that were quite out of his control. While his 23.1 K% was right on target with his career mark, it was down from previously dominant seasons with a slightly increased walk rate and a very high 15.3 HR/FB. He’s thrown a lot of innings and it’s possible his peak is behind him, but there was nothing really wrong outside of those HRs and his contact rates were actually quite favorable and within reach of his career hard hit rate. There may be some reason for optimism here. The Rangers were better than expected last year and have some left handed power, but Texas isn’t a haven for LH power anymore.

Garrett Richards occasionally showed signs of sustaining his 2014 breakout, but in the end, his ERA and estimators were merely around league average and about a run worse. His contact quality management remained elite, but his K and BB rates returned to average and his HR count went from 5 to 20. However, he actually increased his SwStr rate (10.8% to 11.1%) while throwing 95 mph gas. He can be interesting today at home against a Cubs offense that many may fear due to their power, but they also strike out a lot and in daily fantasy, a strike out is generally as good as a run is bad for pitchers.

Jake Arrieta did amazing things after the All Star break and won himself a Cy Young last season. I don’t question that he’s one of the top pitchers in the National League, but we can’t possibly expect him to run out a sub two ERA again. One of the less publicized improvements in his game is a HR rate nearly half of what it was in Baltimore over the last two years. He’s in a great park to see that continue, at least through this start. Mike Trout may have a little more help these days, but the offense still doesn’t strike fear into you once you get past the middle few guys.

Julio Teheran is someone I will not immediately write off in this matchup despite an ERA with estimators above four last season. He was much better at home. Not that this absolutely means something going forward, but his K-BB% was nearly double and his HR rate nearly halved (despite harder contact) at home versus on the road. It’s a decent park for a fly ball pitcher. The Nationals have a solid lineup, but only really have two LH threats (Harper & Murphy), although maybe one of them should count as two by himself (I mean Murphy after that post-season obviously).

Madison Bumgarner is going to be our case point in spring stats not meaning anything, right? He was horrendous in March, but is said to be dealing with minor rib and foot injuries. This might be the more important factor. Otherwise, we know who and what he is and that’s one of the top pitchers in the game, who may not get as much credit because of some of the other incredibly dominant tall power lefties also going today. He is on the road, in a tough park, but faces a depleted offense that has added a few high strikeout bats to it.

Masahiro Tanaka perhaps doesn’t believe in Tommy John surgery. He’s one of very few pitchers to successfully pitch through a torn UCL and not poorly at all. His issue is the HR ball in a very susceptible park against a dangerous offense. The Astros do strike out more than the average offense, but toned that down last season and got rid of the top culprit (Chris Carter) after the season. The one concern I would have here is a .242 BABIP that didn’t so much throw off his estimators (aside from his FIP) due to the high HR rate.

Max Scherzer was dominating the National League and well on his way to the Cy Young before appearing to tire over the summer, though still finishing with great numbers overall. He combined a career high K% with a career low BB%, exhibiting one of the highest SwStr marks of the last decade, but also not even the best today. The Braves did not strike out much against RH pitching last year, but were still an extremely poor offense.

R.A. Dickey is our expected outlier and difficult to quantify. It was a lot easier when he was striking out more batters and running a sub three ERA in the National League. Now, he’s into his 40’s and we don’t know what to expect. The park is strongly in his favor, while the matchup should play about neutral.

Raisel Iglesias was a late season DFS darling in his rookie season as an elite K% counteracted some strand rate and HR issues. An inability to consistently pitch deep into starts early plagued him, but he went exactly seven innings in four straight starts before two lesser efforts to finish off the season. While his home park might not be the friendliest and the Phillies may not be as bad again, there aren’t many better lineup opportunities to start his sophomore season.

Editor’s Note: Sonny Gray has been scratched from his start. Rich Hill will start in his place.

Sonny Gray is a very good pitcher to have on a real life baseball team you root for. He excels at taking advantage of some things that are beyond an average pitcher’s control. He’s managed contact well and in a favorable park he’s generally able to turn batted balls into outs. From a DFS and sabermetric standpoint though, he really comes across as somewhat more average. We’ll dig in more below in the ERA Chart comments. The White Sox should be a tougher offense this season, but still look to be a favorable matchup at home.

Tyson Ross is a little bit of a right-handed Dallas Keuchel as an extreme weak ground ball generator with an above average strikeout rate. However, he only equals him in the latter category and has a few more flaws, namely an inability to stop walking LH batters (12% last year). The Dodgers have some skilled LH batters that will take walks, which might make this start a bit dangerous for him today, though he kept the ball in the park against bats from both sides last season when many Padres pitchers weren’t doing so.

Zack Greinke is coming off a career season and I don’t mean to disparage his accomplishments because he’s still a very good pitcher, but he might no longer be an elite one. Unfortunately, his K% was not among the gains he made in 2015, though his BB% was slightly improved, which means his ERA estimators (which we’ll discuss in length below) were much higher than his actual ERA. Further discouraging news is that he’s moving to much more hitter friendly park this season. This doesn’t mean he’s not a very good pitcher who should usually be worth your daily fantasy support. Even the opposition is a bit tricky here as Colorado has recently been a lefty-heavy team that generates little offense away from home. I’m not sure how much we should discount them in this park though.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Chris Tillman offers us nearly nothing on a day like today, even against the Twins.

Drew Smyly is unlikely to find himself in this section often. I really like him overall, but there’s no need to use a lot of words in praise of a pitcher you’re not going to use today against the top lefty mashing offense in baseball. Also, due to injury concerns (shoulder) he was only allowed to complete seven innings once in 12 starts last year.

Ervin Santana is really the best Minnesota has? Not that he’s terrible, but he wasn’t particularly good last season (or in half a season after suspension). Maybe he’ll improve this year as he did end strong with seven straight starts of at least seven innings with two runs or less, but Baltimore is a tough offense at home. However, the Orioles do strike out a lot and he is one of the cheapest pitchers on the board. It may be chilly in Baltimore Monday and I wouldn’t hate him as a punt pitcher #2 in a GPP if you desperately need to compliment a top guy with one in his price range.

Jeremy Hellickson = No! We get to do this once a day for time and space considerations.

Jorge de la Rosa allows a lot of hard contact with a high HR/FB rate along with control issues. He may not be in Colorado today, but Arizona is the next best thing. The loss of A.J. Pollock might give you second thought, but it’s probably not enough to make him worthwhile today.

Wily Peralta = No! Ok, we can do it twice today. It doesn’t take a sabermetric degree to explain the ugliness you see in his numbers and while I don’t expect him to be as bad this season, there’s not much upside here.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 19.5 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

We’re using 2015 numbers for the first week. As mentioned, we’re showing just starting pitcher league averages in the header information now, which drops K% and SwStr% just slightly from the overall average that includes relievers.

All except one crazy knuckleballer were well within range last season. There are a couple of pitchers I’m going to quickly comment on though.

Cole Hamels had his highest SwStr% since 2007 last season and while you may see him on the low end here (1.83 last season) and think he may register some upward movement here, note that his career K/SwStr sits right at 1.89.

R.A. Dickey maintained a league average SwStr%, but saw his K% stumble to below 15% for the first time since his first year with the Mets (2010). Maybe it will bounce back some, but he again, he is a 40+ year old knuckleballer.

Lastly, note that only two of today’s starters had a SwStr below 9% last year.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.07 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.03 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Chris Sale was probably one of the top three most sabermetrically dominant pitchers last season, but the aforementioned career high BABIP, along with a career low 73.2 LOB% pushed his actual ERA almost a run above his estimators. That particular strand rate is probably perfectly fine for most pitchers and is in fact league average, but you have a higher expectation when striking out a third of the batters you face.

Corey Kluber has had some experience with a gap between his ERA and the estimators below them back in 2013 as well as last season. His BABIP was actually a career low at .297, but the strand rate (71.4%) was a bit lower than 2014 along with a bump up to a league average 10.7 HR/FB. I’d expect his strand rate to rise towards 75% with the number of strikeouts he generates. All else being the same, he would trend closer to expectations this year in the high twos, low threes.

David Price – It may be a bit of a reach, but both his LOB% and HR/FB were a little bit better than his career rates, which are already better than league average. This explains the difference between his ERA and non-FIP estimators, which were right in career range.

Jake Arrieta – The BABIP (.246) is well below his .272 career rate, which is still quite good. The Cubs do shift a lot and probably do help him here, but I still can’t expect something below .250 to be sustainable for him. The 80% strand rate is questionable as well and the HR rate could return to normal. If all that happens, his estimators were still well below three.

R.A. Dickey – I repeat that knuckleballers historically do not conform to the laws of both man and baseball.

Raisel Iglesias had a strand rate a bit low (70.6%) for someone with his strikeout stuff and a HR rate a bit above the norm (13.9%). I’d have more faith in the strand rate rising than the HR rate falling too far due to the park he calls home. The sample size is still small though. Maybe he can trim that HR mark. I’d expect a sub-four ERA if all else stays the same though.

Sonny Gray had a 16.6 LD%, 25.1 Hard%, and 8.2 IFFB% that were all career best. You would then expect him to regress from a .255 BABIP this season. However, none of those marks are very far from his three year established career rates and considering the favorable park, he may be a candidate to sneak by a little below his estimators, but not by a run. If the strikeout and walk rates remain average, you might expect to see an ERA at least in the low threes this season.

Zack Greinke had the third largest positive gap between his ERA and FIP of all qualified pitchers and that gap was much lower than the one between his ERA and xFIP/SIERA. That’s because he had the second lowest HR/FB (7.3%) of his career. He now moves to a hitter friendly park. The only time he called a hitter friendly park home in his career, for a season and half with the Brewers, he had a double digit HR rate. He also had an unsustainably career best BABIP (.229) and LOB (86.5%). While much like Arrieta, he can still regress quite a bit and still be a top pitcher (he could double his ERA and still be an All Star), the fall might be a bit farther in his case.

BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 21.1 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.7 Z-Contact%)

Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).

Masahiro Tanaka didn’t experience a gap in his ERA and non-FIP rates due to the high HR rate we mentioned earlier, but we can’t expect him to maintain such a low rate absent any positive indicators and that could push his ERA into the high threes. A low walk rate will continue to help keep runs off the board though.

Max Scherzer is someone who has occasionally struggled with BABIP in the past, but is a prime example of a reasonably low mark with great indicators behind it. A low LD% may help describe some of what happened with great IFFB and Z-Contact rates informing on some of the process behind it, despite a defense that struggled behind some of their more ground ball heavy pitchers.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Today, and probably for the first week or so, we’re not going to do that though. Instead, I’d like to revert to the previous format of just talking a bit more about the pitchers you might be considering today in relation to their price tags until we get a bit more information about 2016.

Chris Sale is an enormous upside arm with the potential to top any price tag. He’s in a great spot to do so too, though, he’ll probably be one of the more popular picks with several pitchers a bit more costly. However, there are so many top arms going on the first day of the season that even the most popular pitchers shouldn’t be of much concern.

Clayton Kershaw – You’re obviously going to have to pay the most here and he’s most likely more than worth it. I wonder, with the highest cost on an extremely talented board, how many players will elect to save some money and go in another direction. I’d argue that we might see his lowest ownership rates of the season today.

Cole Hamels always feels somewhat accurately or even over-priced. He’s a very good pitcher, but is often priced for at least that. That’s actually not really the case today, but still I don’t see this as a particularly good matchup either. The Mariners consistently hit the ball harder than just about any other team last year and very much under-achieved offensively, although they closed the gap a bit late in the season. Texas may no longer play like a ban box, but it’s none the less an upgrade in environment for this offense, especially this early in the season.

Corey Kluber seems to be in a decent spot, though it’s hard to tell with the expectations and results rarely matching in Boston in recent years. He’s toting a particularly appealing price tag on DraftKings for the potential upside, considering his usual cost.

Dallas Keuchel – I think he’ll continue to do what he built last year even if not quite as dominant and really don’t mind him here in at a reasonable cost in a spot where he may go under-utilized due to popular misconceptions about the park and the offense that resides in it.

David Price is more costly than some pitchers below him who may even have more upside. You’re paying for stability here as he has a better chance to be finishing seven innings or more than just about every other pitcher even on today’s board. Who knows if that changes this early in the season, but he’s pitched at least seven innings in four of his last six initial starts to a season and looks to have a favorable situation.

Felix Hernandez stays in the conversation here because he’s moderately priced and may stay under the radar when many players remember how he burned them last year and/or recall Texas as a great place to hit. It’s not often you can call the King a contrarian play, but that might be the case today.

Garrett Richards can be interesting here because the Cubs strike out so often and he does show up on the lower half of a star studded board. His cost is more favorable on FanDuel, but it’s not certain that he’ll have the K’s in reserve to keep him afloat should the Cubs flex their muscle.

Jake Arrieta carries one of the highest price tags on both major sites and even if he doesn’t carry an ERA below two again, he was near the top of the league in SIERA, xFIP, and FIP last year and will probably be worth it. It’s a favorable park the LA offense shouldn’t scare you too much.

Julio Teheran might be a reason shot to take with your complimentary pitcher in a GPP, although I trust him in cash games or single pitcher sites and there are a couple of interesting names around him on DraftKings. He was good at home last season and has a skill set that fits his ball park.

Madison Bumgarner – The potential injury impact that may have derailed his spring might be something that makes him slightly less appealing in an otherwise enviable spot here.

Masahiro Tanaka is probably the most neutral I feel on a pitcher today. He could pitch well, find himself in trouble, or anything in between. As such, you’ll find him right in the middle of most boards. There just doesn’t feel a need to take the risk on this particular occasion though.

Max Scherzer should come out firing again this season with any late season fatigue he might have experienced last year washed away. He’s one of the highest priced pitchers even among this elite group for good reason considering his immense talent and seemingly great spot. However, I do wonder about Atlanta’s ability to make contact (as weak as it may be) against RH pitching hindering his upside on the more strikeout concentrated sites.

R.A. Dickey is in a decent spot at one of the lower prices on the board which may make him a pitcher #2 candidate if you need the cap space. I really have no idea what to expect from him though. Will his K% bounce back even slightly?

Raisel Iglesias gets to wear the Big Boy pants (or at least price tag) over on DraftKings where strikeouts reign supreme. He’s much more affordable and perhaps the highest upside play on the bottom half of the board in a favorable spot on FanDuel.

Sonny Gray is (at least for me) perhaps the most over-rated pitcher from a DFS perspective. He’s often over-priced with middling peripherals. That said, he’s in a solid matchup at home for what looks like a more reasonable price tag than usual, which keeps him in consideration on Opening Day.

Tyson Ross surprisingly only faced the division rival Dodgers once after April 7th last season, but it does seem like the sort of patient lineup that could frustrate his daily fantasy owners, though the price is modest enough to feel accurate.

Zack Greinke will not replicate last season’s level of success. I feel more comfortable saying this about him than any other pitcher in baseball this season. As mentioned above though, he could double his ERA and still be an All Star. He might not be the top play today, but he’s unlikely to hurt you either even in a tough park.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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