Advanced Stats Pitching Charts - Wed 8/6
With a full slate starting at 1pm EST, some corners may have to be cut in order to get posted in time. All the important stuff is still going to be here though. If it’s left unsaid, you probably aren’t that interested in that pitcher to begin with. In most cases, the stats in the charts speak for themselves anyway.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. 2013+ is since the start of that season. Combo stats are explained below.
Brad Peacock – faces the 2nd worst offense vs RHP, but hasn’t pitched since 7/23 and was destroyed in his last start.
Chris Capuano – gets the 2nd best offense vs LHP.
Chris Sale – gave up a few runs last time out, but still struck out a quarter of the batters he faced and has the greenest K% today. Texas hasn’t been nearly as bad on the road or vs LHP as they have been overall.
Chris Young – has a solid matchup and will likely keep the ball in the park. His ERA estimators are usually more suggestion than rule, but he was roughed up in his last outing and has allowed at least 3 ER’s in 3 of his last 4. He may have the best matchup of the day considering the park.
Danny Salazar – as the series moves to Cincinnati, the Reds are still an attractive opponent, but the park becomes a bit more of a concern.
Doug Fister – has seen an improvement in his peripheral numbers in recent starts and has a lot of green in his line today.
Jake Arrieta – has the 2nd greenest K% today, but Colorado likely kills most of his value today.
Jeff Locke- has more red than you’d think for a matchup with the Marlins, including the day’s worst HR/FB.
Joe Kelly – gets his first assignment since the trade and it’s against his old team. Does he know them or do they know him? How does this work advantage-wise? He was beaten soundly in July, but his peripheral numbers weren’t terrible.
Jon Niese – features the lowest HR/FB of the day.
Julio Teheran – had a few rough starts to begin last month, but has straightened back out recently and you have to love the spot he’s in tonight.
Justin Verlander – we’re at the point where there’s not really anything exciting in his line today either way.
Kevin Correia – the Padres are the worst vs RHP and on the road, but everything else in this line is ugly.
Mat Latos – things are looking fairly ugly for him today.
Matt Shoemaker- struck out just 1 in his last start and his K numbers have been kind of a roller coaster in recent starts, but has exhibited some talent this year. He has a tough matchup against the 3rd best offense vs RHP, but also the greenest BB% of the day.
Shelby Miller – I’m surprised to find this much green in his line considering the season he’s had, but his last 2 starts haven’t been half bad, though against weak competition (CHC, SD).
Sonny Gray – at home is usually someone you’re going to want to look at. His matchup today is neutral.
Wei-Yen Chen- has quietly done some solid work in recent starts (15.1 IP – 1 ER – 2 BB – 11 K). Toronto is the 2nd best home offense in baseball though.
Yordano Ventura – there seems to be some risk of the long ball today, but his line looks otherwise attractive today.
Yovani Gallardo – hasn’t allowed a run in his last 2 starts and regained some his lost ability to miss bats over the last month.
Combo K/BB Chart
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but were originally due to space limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows, but now, you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
Chris Sale – all of the Rangers’ K-rates are below 20%, while all of Sale’s are above 27%.
Danny Salazar – the Reds strikeout at about a league average rate and he has shown the ability to be elite in that category in flashes.
Jake Arrieta – the Rockies don’t strike out much at home, but every other K% is above 20.
Joe Kelly – we see some of the reddest K% numbers in his line.
Kevin Correia – can’t even touch a 13 K% by himself.
Matt Shoemaker – the Dodgers will take their walks, but he hasn’t allowed a single one in his last 3 starts.
Combo Batted Ball Chart
Ditto for the Combo Batted Ball stats in the Main Chart above.
Chris Young – is great at inducing IFFB’s and not allowing HR’s. The Braves have been down on power this year.
Danny Salazar – has compiled an elite IFFB rate so far.
Jeff Locke – every HR/FB except the Marlins vs LHP is above 10%.
Jon Niese – all HR/FB rates across his line are below league average.
Yordano Ventura – has a bit of an issue with the long ball away from home to say the least. The D’Backs are pretty neutral in that department.
K/SwStr Chart
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing can make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
Chris Capuano – this is odd. I’m not sure I’ve seen a pitcher with red and green in this chart. The easy explanation would be that he was exclusively a reliever until coming to the Yankees and you’d expect him to trend towards what he’s done in his 2 starts if he remains a starter. He has had a SwStr above 9% in every year of his career until this one.
Dan Haren – if you thought he may actually be making gains in the K department over the last month, reconsider. It may not be so.
Danny Salazar – has had a SwStr below 8% in 2 of his 3 starts since returning. Surprisingly, he’s peaked at 9.8% and 7 K’s against KC of all teams.
Jeff Locke – had a higher K% on a lower SwStr% last year. It doesn’t make much sense and I’d expect him to strike out a league average amount of batters if he maintains his SwStr%.
Jon Niese – has been slowly working his way back to the pack almost all season. He’s finally almost there.
Kevin Correia – far be it from me to ever defend him, but this doesn’t really mesh. He’s had a double digit SwStr% in 2 of his last 3 starts, which I don’t expect him to keep up either. His K% should be double what it was over the last month.
Nick Tepesch – not that a 12 K% is anything to brag about or desire, but sure, it’s probably what you’d expect as he has maintained his SwStr%. His SwStr hasn’t been above 5.1% in any of his last 3 starts.
Shelby Miller – has had a train wreck of a season, but it’s good to see at least a slight increase in his SwStr%. The bad news is that it’s mostly predicated on an 11.8% mark against the Padres last week. He has otherwise topped out at 7.6% in his other 3 July starts.
Sonny Gray – had a 9+ SwStr% in his first 3 July starts, but a sub-6% mark in each of his last 2 that were his worst since early May. Of course, one of those was against KC. His season numbers seem to safely be the ones to rely on going forward.
ERA Estimators Chart
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
NOTE – if you see a pitcher with large gaps below and he isn’t mentioned today, it’s a time saving mechanism because he probably has a limited number of innings in a starting role during that time period.
Chris Young – is the king of BABIP and beating these things. Still, we’re talking about by maybe a half a run to a run over his career, not this. I might buy his July, not his season. That park was made for him though.
Dan Haren – ugh, just ugh. He keeps getting destroyed and has allowed a HR in 5 straight starts. His .373 BABIP over his last 4 starts is predicated on a 25.4 LD% and just a 4.0 IFFB%. A lot of this is deserved and it may be the end.
Danny Salazar – hasn’t allowed a HR in 3 starts since returning and still has an 11.0 HR/FB on the year.
Doug Fister – is swimming in a little bit of BABIP luck and some LOB (83.5%) luck as well. In his last 4 starts, that’s increased to 89.4%.
Drew Hutchison – was the embarrassed owner of a .392 BABIP in July with a 26.3 LD%.
Joe Kelly – it was a pretty disastrous month leading up to the trade. Over his last 4, Kelly had a .359 BABIP, 60.4 LOB%, and 18.8 HR/FB in 19.2 IP.
Jon Niese – has a .375 BABIP over his last 19 innings. As long as his shoulder holds up, he should settle in somewhere in the mid to high 3’s (ERA I mean).
Julio Teheran – has been BABIPed to a .348 tune with a 14.7 HR/FB over his last 5 starts.
Mat Latos – just look at the BABIP chart directly below.
Nick Tepesch – let’s be honest, you’re not using, you don’t care, and I can’t be bothered to look it up. Unless you’re one of those people who likes train wrecks, in which case I direct you to his game log page on fangraphs.
Odrisamer Despaigne – the one game I watched him pitch was impressive, but it’s gone bad since. His BABIP, still .246 for the season, is beginning to catch up to him.
Sonny Gray – has had a good month, even if you want to speculate on the K%. The .242 BABIP and 89.4 LOB% he enjoyed will likely regress.
BABIP Chart
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it (green). If you have a pitcher with a much higher BABIP (green), but decent IFFB and Z-Contact rates you may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
Chris Sale – frankly I’m surprised his BABIP isn’t even better with those markers. He is the only qualified pitcher with a Z-Contact below 80%.
Chris Young – has a career .249 BABIP and I’d assume much of that is with teams that allow much higher BABIP’s. I’d still expect his true talent at this point to be at least 20 points higher than it is on this team. But this is a perfect example of why this is the perfect place for him to pitch.
Danny Salazar – with those indicators, even with a slightly elevated LD%, I’d expect his BABIP to drop, though the Cleveland defense does few pitchers any favors.
Doug Fister – both his team and career (.295) dictate a move upwards, though the 17.2 LD% is a career best.
Jake Arrieta – is doing some great and possibly sustainable things. The BABIP might not be one of those.
Joe Kelly – has some bad indicators and moves to a team that allows a BABIP 14 points higher. Unless he betters his 24.1 LD%, he may not see much movement.
Julio Teheran – had a .288 BABIP last year, his first full one in the majors. With a great Z-Contact%, maybe he is establishing something here, but his current mark is too low in relation to his team’s established level.
Mat Latos – No, but maybe .250ish with a healthy Cincinnati defense and elite pop up rate.
Matt Shoemaker – I’d expect him to trend closer to .300 with that defense even with a slightly below average LD% and inability to generate pop ups.
Nick Tepesch – how is he so bad when it actually looks like he’s getting a bit lucky?
Odrisamer Despaigne – the Padres defense has some good range, but not enough to keep him below .250 long term.
Ryan Vogelsong – has a .299 career BABIP. With a higher LD% the last 2 years, he might deserve to be over .300 right now though.
Tom Koehler – has a 17.2 LD%, but there’s not much reason I can see that he’d stay nearly 50 points below his team’s rate going forward.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Chris Sale – has the highest price tag of the day and didn’t have the best start last time out, while the Rangers haven’t been as bad on the road or vs LHP as they have otherwise been offensively. Still, this is Chris Sale and you’re probably considering him because there’s a good chance he turns out the best performance of the day.
Dan Haren – my little spreadsheet spits out his name due to past peripherals and price. I’ve kind of taken to ignoring it. He’s the anti-Chris Young.
Doug Fister – has been looking better recently and even though they busted out vs the bullpen last night, the Mets were held in check for most of the game and haven’t hit much since the break. You may not get a ton of K’s, but he’ll limit the free passes and keep the ball in the park.
Jeff Locke – Pittsburgh plays as a very tough park for RH power so it’s odd that he’s had HR issues and the Marlins have hit LHP at a league average rate, but it’s still the Marlin offense and he’s a bottom of the board price tag.
Julio Teheran – is one of two pitchers in the price tier below Sale today and is another contender for top performance of the night with this great matchup. He’s struck out 25 in his last 21 IP (84 BF).
Matt Shoemaker – struggled a bit last time out and has a tough matchup, but has been solid this year at home and should make the Dodgers work for it, limiting BB’s and HR’s. There’s obviously risk involved, but he has some upside at a reasonable cost.
Shelby Miller – is another bottom of the board price tag and deservedly so with his performance this year. If you take a look at his last 2 starts though, it’s been a bit better (11.2 IP – 4 ER – 3 HR – 0 BB – 8 K). Obviously, you don’t like the HR’s, but it was the first 2 starts all year where he didn’t walk anybody. Again, you might say “meh” to the Cubs and Padres, but who are the Red Sox really this year? He has talent, or least has shown some in the past, so maybe taking a shot at his current cost isn’t completely insane.
Sonny Gray – is the other pitcher in that 2nd tier and another contender for top performance of the night. His ERA estimators in the main chart up top are bested only by Sale today. He has pitched at least 6.2 innings with 1 ER or less and at least 5 K’s in 6 straight starts, making his push to remain Ace of this staff despite Oakland’s trade deadline activity.
Yordano Ventura – the HR issues discussed above scare you. He’s allowed 7 in 8 road starts this year and is in a tough park tonight. The D’Backs are without their best hitter though. Further, his 7 K’s in each of his last 2 starts is encouraging and his most since 5/15. If he can keep the ball in the park, we’re looking at potential upside here.
Yovani Gallardo – the Giants are a little bit below neutral as far as matchup goes. Gallardo hasn’t allowed a run in 2 starts and has struck out at least 5 in 3 straight starts for only the 2nd time this year. His 9.2 SwStr% over the last month brings you back to the type of pitcher he was earlier in his career. We don’t know if he’ll keep it up or not, but that along with his 53% ground ball rate this year are good signs and may be worth a middle of the board price today.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.