Early AFC and NFC Championship Lines and Betting Picks
With the NFL Divisional Round behind us, the NFC and AFC championships await this Sunday. We’ll take an early look at AFC and NFC conference championship matchups and betting lines at online sports betting sites, as only two teams remain in pursuit of Super Bowl 2020. Before we do, let’s recap the second weekend of the 2020 NFL Playoffs.
Unders had their way on Saturday as the 49ers held the Vikings to 10 points in a 27-10 win and the Tennessee Titans held the Baltimore Ravens to only one touchdown.
Scoring picked up on Sunday with the Chiefs and Texans combining for 52 first half points. The point total for the game was 51! By the end of it, Patrick Mahomes passed for five touchdowns and running back Damien Williams rushed for two more on the ground as the Chiefs matched the point total by themselves.
The biggest story of the weekend is the early exit of Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Not only were the Ravens (14-2) the favorites to win the AFC Championship but they were also consensus favorites to win Super Bowl 2020
Also read Three Ways to Bet on Super Bowl 2020 without Betting on the Super Bowl
Aside from the upset in Baltimore, the Divisional Round played out pretty much as expected. Now let’s see what’s in store this weekend by diving into all four NFC and AFC Championship lines and betting picks at three legal US sportsbooks.
AFC and NFC Championship Betting Lines
Be sure to use our NFL odds tool to shop lines throughout the week before making your NFL betting picks for the conference championships.
AFC and NFC Championship Lines and Betting Picks
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs -7.5, O/U 52
Sunday, January 19
3:05 p.m. ET
Two weeks ago, before the 2020 NFL Playoffs kicked off, the Titans were +5000 to win Super Bowl 2020. Oh, how things have changed. First, the Titans knocked out Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the wild-card round. They carried that momentum to Baltimore, knocking off MVP-in-waiting, Lamar Jackson and the 14-2 Baltimore Ravens.
It was easy to overlook the Titans performance in New England. But winning in Baltimore is another story. The Titans will need a similar performance if they want to knock off defending MVP, Patrick Mahomes.
If Tennessee does beat the Kansas City Chiefs, it won’t be the first time for them to do so this season.
Back in Week 10, the Tennessee Titans hosted Mahomes and the Chiefs and delivered a 35-32 win to Titans fans in Nashville. It was the Chiefs’ fourth and final loss of the season, and it was the beginning of a four-game win streak for Ryan Tannehill and the Titans.
The Titans won much like how you’d expect them to: on the ground. Derrick Henry rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 8.2 yards a carry. If you haven’t watched Derrick Henry this postseason, you might write off his Week 10 performance as an outlier.
However, Henry seemingly can’t be stopped. The regular-season rushing leader posted 182 yards against the Patriots, and then 195 yards against the Ravens.
Kansas City’s defense is not on par with the Patriots or Ravens, but it is much improved from where it was two months ago.
The Chiefs struggled defensively against most teams the first half of the season, not just the Titans. Fortunately, things have changed as the defense has gotten healthier. The Chiefs are conceding only 11.5 points and 95 yards rushing per game since Week 11. During that same span, opposing offenses are scoring on merely 24 percent of their possessions and reaching the end zone 12 percent of the time.
I expect the Chiefs to go all-out to stop Henry on the ground. If they’re even moderately successful in doing so, the Titans will likely have to turn to Tannehill and rookie receiver A.J. Brown. The only thing more unstoppable than Henry, is the Chiefs offense, and the Titans could very well find themselves playing catch-up earlier than expected.
Luckily for the Titans,Tannehill has the league’s best passer rating and he has one of the best young receivers to throw to. Brown has put himself in the Rookie of the Year conversation after catching for over 1,000 yards on 85 targets. He finished the season behind only Mike Williams (20.4 ypr) with 20.2 yards per reception. Remarkably, the Ole Miss product is the only receiver in NFL history to have at least 1,000 yards receiving on less than 94 targets.
If you think the Titans will be playing catch-up, a Tannehill-Brown stack could be some-what contrarian in daily fantasy sports this weekend.
As for betting purposes, 7.5 points seems like a lot in a conference championship matchup, but I expect the Chiefs to win by double digits. The Titans are on the road for the fourth time in as many weeks, and Henry has 99 touches over that same span.
Something has to give, right?
AFC Championship Betting Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -7.5
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers -7.5, O/U 45
Sunday, January 19
6:40 p.m. ET
In Week 12, the Packers marched into San Francisco as 3-point underdogs. By the end of the night, Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers dealt Aaron Rodgers the third largest loss of his career.
The Packers haven’t lost a game since, but oddsmakers at US sportsbooks opened the Packers as 7-point underdogs in the NFC Championship. The line has already moved a half-point at some sports betting sites, making the the 49ers 7.5-point home favorites.
In their first meeting, the Packers were dominated on the defensive and offensive sides of the ball. The 49ers defense sacked Rodgers five times, as the secondary held the future hall of famer to merely 104 yards passing — one of the worst performances of his career.
The game will probably be closer than 37-8, but can the Packers keep this within a touchdown?
The Packers might not have lost since Week 12, but little has changed between the two teams. The Packers’ offense is still questionable with Davante Adams being the only true receiving threat for Rodgers. Aaron Jones has helped the Packers get this far, but San Francisco was able to hold him to 38 yards on 13 carries the first time they met.
The Packers will need a vintage, MVP-like performance from Rodgers if they want to have a chance. I just don’t see that happening.
NFC Championship Bet Pick: San Francisco 49ers -7.5; Under 45
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images