Three Ways to Bet on Super Bowl 2020 without Betting on the Super Bowl
With the NFL Playoffs right around the corner, hopefully you’re sitting on some nice futures tickets (maybe Kansas City Chiefs +1200 to win the Super Bowl?). Or you might be scrambling to find a new team to raise the Lombardi Trophy if your bet on Super Bowl 2020 already fell through thanks to a team like, say, um, the Dallas Cowboys or the Cleveland Browns.
While it may be tempting to lock in Super Bowl bets before the Bills and Texans kick off the first of four wild card games this weekend, it might be best to avoid Super Bowl 2020 odds at online sports betting sites for some teams. Don’t worry; you don’t have to miss out. Check out these three ways to bet on the Super Bowl without actually betting on the Super Bowl.
NFL Super Bowl 2020 Odds at US Sportsbooks
Before we look at unique ways to find value betting on the Super Bowl, take a look at Super Bowl 2020 odds across five legal US. sportsbooks, and be sure to use our promo codes to sign up for free bets at Golden Nugget Sportsbook, PointsBet, William Hill, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Rollover the Favorites
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens sit atop NFL betting board as Super Bowl favorites thanks to Jackson’s MVP campaign. Not far below are the 49ers at +400, Chiefs +450 and Saints +600.
If, like me, you didn’t have the foresight to bet the Ravens +3300, there’s certainly room on the bandwagon. In fact, according to several prediction models, there’s still value betting on the Ravens +220 (an implied probability of 31.3%).
FiveThirtyEight gives the Ravens a 46% chance winning of winning Super Bowl 2020, ESPN FPI 36%, Football Outsiders 44%, and Massey-Peabody Analytics 43%. PFF is a bit more bearish of the Ravens’ chances, giving them 26% of holding up the Lombardi Trophy at Hard Rock Stadium.
It could be more prudent to use a rollover betting strategy if you want exposure to some of the favorites. That is, rolling over the moneyline on a specific team all the way to South Beach rather than locking in their current futures price.
The task will be made more difficult with the Ravens than the 49ers, Saints or Chiefs. Baltimore will be heavily favored at home in the divisional round with the Texans, Bills and Titans as possible opponents. For a point of reference we can look at past moneylines and 2019-20 regular season spreads to estimate divisional, conference championship, and Super Bowl moneylines.
The Ravens were 6.5-point favorites in Buffalo four weeks ago. Generally, home-field advantage is worth 2-3 points, so we can reasonably predict Ravens being roughly 10-11-point favorites if they host the Bills next week.
It might be easier to use one of the ways below to bet on the Ravens. Still, rollover strategy is more viable and will turn a larger profit than betting on Super Bowl futures for a team like the 49ers. Read more about rollover strategy here.
At FanDuel and DraftKings you can find playoff specials such as Most Playoff Passing Yards, Most Playoff Rushing Yards, Most Playoff Receiving Yards, among others. The player that leads these categories will likely play in the Super Bowl.
Patrick Mahomes is +550 to have the most passing yards compared to the Chiefs +450 pricetag to win the Super Bowl. Hypothetically, Mahomes could have the most passing yards without the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl. I prefer this bet to Chiefs +450, but there is a major threat. His name is Drew Brees
The Saints may not have the advantage of a bye week, but their Wild Card Weekend participation gives Brees an extra game over Mahomes, which is one reason why Brees (+160) is the heavy favorite to have the most passing yards in the playoffs. Brees starts with a great matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, who already put forth a suspect pass defense, will be without two cornerbacks against the Saints. Per ESPN Stats & Info, Drew Brees is the only quarterback to complete 70% of his passes and have an 80 QBR against both man and zone defenses since Week 11. If you’re betting on Mahomes here, you’re betting that the Saints will slip up before the Super Bowl. Preferably before the NFC Championship.
If the Saints and Brees don’t scare you away, use our promo code to bet Mahomes +550 at FanDuel (he is only +300 at DraftKings).
Super Bowl MVP
Though we don’t know what teams will meet in Super Bowl 54, we can go ahead and bet on the Super Bowl MVP. The MVP will come from whoever wins the Super Bowl, and you get better odds on Jackson (+300) and Mahomes (+600) than on either the Ravens or Chiefs winning the Super Bowl. Of course, unlike rollover strategy, betting on Super Bowl MVP doesn’t come without added risk. After all, Jackson and Mahomes are not a lock to win Super MVP even if they become Super Bowl Champions
The last six Super Bowls have seen three non-quarterbacks given the award. The most recent winner was Julian Edelman with 10 catches and 141 yards, while the two other non-quarterbacks came from the defensive side of the ball. Von Miller took home the award for the Broncos in Super Bowl 50, two years after Malcolm Smith became the first defensive Super Bowl MVP since Tampa Bay’s Dexter Jackson in Super Bowl 38.
Overall, Quarterbacks have earned the honor 29 times, wide receivers seven times, running backs six times, while the other 12 times have gone to defenders.
In the last 10 years, quarterbacks have won it seven times. Mahomes and Jackson are still fairly safe bets, but I prefer the latter with less competition coming from Jackson’s targets than Mahomes’. With that said, an interesting way of betting on the Chiefs would be to bet on the MVP odds of Mahomes +650, Travis Kelce +5000, Tyreek Hill +8500, and Damien Williams +8500. Look at it this way:
Mahomes +650 – 1 unit pays out 6.5 units (
Kelce +5000 – 1/2 unit pays out 25 units
Hill +8500 – 1/2 unit pays out 42.5 units
Williams +8500 – 1/2 unit pays out 42.5 units
If Mahomes wins it, you net 5 units compared to 4.5 units on a 1-unit +450 futures ticket. If Kelce wins, you net 23 units, and 41 units if Hill or Williams wins. We’ve seen all three players — especially Hill — have monster games before, so it’s not far-fetched to think they launch a dark horse MVP campaign if you already lean towards betting on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. Kansas City has struggled defensively, so it’s less likely that we’ll see a Chiefs defender vulture the award than if we were betting on players from the Ravens, 49ers or Patriots.
For more general betting tips, read our NFL betting guide.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images