Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers - Game 3 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Astros vs. Rangers Odds
| Astros Odds | +105 |
| Rangers Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Date | Wed, Oct. 18 |
| Time | 8:03 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
The Texas Rangers won each of the first two games of this year’s American League Championship Series, and now they return home with an opportunity to punch their ticket to the World Series in front of their home fans. The Houston Astros will send Cristian Javier to the mound in Game 3, hoping to avoid a dreaded 0-3 hole. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET on FS1.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Rangers as -125 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 9 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Houston Astros
Cristian Javier gets the ball for Houston in Game 3
Cristian Javier had a tumultuous regular season, characterized by command issues and an inability to limit hard contact. He struck out fewer batters than the league average pitcher and was extremely prone to giving him home runs – ranking in the 25th percentile in barrel-rate and the 1st percentile in ground ball rate.
Nevertheless, Javier managed to turn in a respectable outing in his first playoff start this season, blanking the Minnesota Twins across five innings. Still, he walked five batters and needed 87 pitches in that contest, which is not a sustainable recipe for success.
Javier struggled mightily to a 4.82 FIP, 1.48 WHIP, and allowed a .273 batting average to opposing left-handed hitters in 2023. His strikeout rate across the platoon was 10.1% lower than it was against right-handed batters. Facing a lineup that includes Corey Seager, Evan Carter, Jonah Heim, Nathaniel Lowe, and Leody Taveras makes this an extremely tough matchup for Javier. Do not be surprised if Manager Dusty Baker is forced to go to the bullpen as early as the third or fourth inning on Wednesday.
Houston, our offense has a problem
Much has been made during these playoffs about how long layoffs have negatively impacted offensive production. Houston seems to be the latest victim of this phenomenon, having scored only four runs in the first two games of the ALCS following a four-day break after defeating Minnesota in the Division Series.
Through the first two games of the ALCS, the Astros own a .169 batting average and a .552 OPS – both of which are significantly lower than the .261 batting average and .818 OPS that this lineup posted during the Division Series.
After another off-day on Tuesday, the Astros will once again attempt to find their timing at the plate this evening against Max Scherzer. During the second-half of the campaign, Houston ranked 3rd in OPS and 7th in ISO against right-handed pitching. It is do-or-die time for this offense – a group that is desperately searching for a spark. Houston is only 1-for-9 (.111 batting average) with runners-in-scoring position to begin this series.
Astros bullpen outperforming expectations in ALCS
In the series opener, Hector Neris and Bryan Abreu covered 2.1 innings for the Astros, allowing no runs on no hits while striking out three batters. Houston’s bullpen was excellent again in Game 2, allowing no runs on one hit across 6.1 innings of work after Framber Valdez was chased from the game earlier than expected.
Following an off-day on Tuesday, everyone not named J.P. France is likely available for Manager Dusty Baker on Wednesday for Game 3. The larger question is how long this relief corps can continue to outperform their expectations.
Last season, Houston’s arm barn had seven different relievers throw at least 16.1 innings while posting a 3.00 FIP or better during the final two months of the regular season. This year, the Astros had only two relievers meet those standards. Only five of Houston’s relievers managed a sub-4.00 FIP with at least 16.0 innings of work during the final two months of the regular season while operating in a meaningful role for this unit.
The Houston arm barn is likely to be over-exposed again tonight, with Javier projected for a short outing against a tough Texas lineup. If the Astros’ bullpen does not continue their recent dominance, this team could find themselves on the brink of elimination by the end of tonight’s action.
Texas Rangers
Mad Max makes his return to the mound
Tonight, Max Scherzer will make his first start in a live game since September 12, when he delivered 5.1 innings of scoreless work against the Toronto Blue Jays. Scherzer has been throwing simulated games for a few weeks and nearly made the roster for the Division Series against Baltimore. His inclusion on the ALCS roster is not a formality, and Manager Bruce Bochy would not be handing him the ball in Game 3 unless Scherzer was capable of getting through the lineup at least twice.
Scherzer had a disastrous outing in last year’s postseason, allowing seven earned runs in only 4.2 innings. However, he had been dominant in the playoffs during his previous two appearances – posting a 2.31 ERA across 46.2 innings. Scherzer was at his best pitching at home during the regular season, with a 3.42 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, and a .198 opponent batting average.
Assuming he is healthy, Scherzer projects well in this spot, even against a dangerous Houston lineup.
Rangers’ offense playing at a high level this October
Texas enters play on Tuesday a perfect 7-0 during these playoffs, in large part due to their red-hot offensive attack. In those seven games, the Rangers have scored 39 runs and posted an .807 OPS – the latter of which ranks second out of all teams during October.
Notably, the Rangers have had an abundance of offensive success, despite not hitting many home runs. Texas has consistently managed to get runners-in-scoring-position, and they have used small-ball tactics to keep the pressure on the defense. Still, a couple of home runs from this lineup would lead to an offensive explosion, considering the vast number of at-bats this team has been having with men-on-base to begin the postseason.
During the regular season, Texas’ offense tied for the third-most home runs in the big leagues. Facing a fly-ball pitcher in Game 3, it is possible that the Rangers finally manage to have a breakout game with the longball.
Texas leaning on starting pitching to avoid bullpen concerns
The largest concern for the Rangers heading into October was their bullpen. However, that has hardly been a concern through the team’s first seven playoff games due to the length they have received from their starting pitching. To begin the ALCS, Manager Bruce Bochy received 6.1 innings from Jordan Montgomery in Game 1 and 6.0 innings from Nathan Eovaldi in Game 2. This functioned to shorten the bridge between the starter and Texas’ few reliable late-inning arms – namely, Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc.
During the regular season, the Rangers’ bullpen ranked 22nd in FIP, 13th in WHIP, 19th in strikeout rate, and 6th in walk percentage. Texas was just as vulnerable in the late innings down the stretch, ranking 23rd in FIP, 17th in WHIP, 11th in strikeout rate, and 19th in walk percentage in September.
Bochy will continue trying to minimize the impact of his bullpen on this series as much as possible, but Scherzer could have the shortest leash of anyone he has sent to the mound so far in October due to the fact that this is his first start in over a month. If the Rangers are forced to go their bullpen early, this could turn into a high-scoring affair.
Astros vs. Rangers – Picks & Predictions
During the regular season, Houston ranked 25th in OPS and 22nd in ISO against right-handed pitching at home, compared to 4th in OPS and 4th in ISO on the road. Simply, the Astros have performed significantly better offensively in opposing ballparks this season. They are in desperate need of run production this evening in Game 3, with their season essentially on the line. Facing Max Scherzer, who has not thrown in a live game in over a month, presents them with their best chance yet to get into Texas’ underwhelming middle relief options.
On the other side of this matchup, Texas’ bats get to face Cristian Javier, who has command issues, is vulnerable to the home run, and struggled to a 5.25 FIP and 1.31 WHIP in his starts on the road during the regular season. If the Rangers offense is able to do damage early, they will have a chance to get another crack at a vulnerable Houston bullpen that has outperformed expectations thus far in the ALCS.
Both of these teams should be able to plate runs in this game. The over is a strong look.
PICK: Over 9 (-120, Fanatics Sportsbook)