Astros vs. White Sox Game 3 Odds, Picks and Prediction

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Astros vs. White Sox Odds

Astros Odds -102
White Sox Odds -116
Over/Under 8.5
Date Tuesday, Oct. 11
Time 2:07 p.m. ET
TV FS1

On Tuesday afternoon, the Houston Astros and the Chicago White Sox will battle in the American League Division Series at Guaranteed Rate Field. Entering play, Houston has won six of their last nine contests. Chicago has won seven of their last 10 games. In Game 4, the Astros will send “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr to the hill as they try once again to advance to the American League Championship series. He will be opposed by Carlos Rodon. Oddsmakers are anticipating the White Sox doing enough to extend their season for the second day in a row, pricing Chicago as -116 home favorites.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Houston Astros (+110)

After Game 4 was postponed yesterday, the Astros have decided to scratch Jose Urquidy, and instead turn to McCullers Jr., who was dominant in Game 1 of this series, delivering 6.2 innings of shutout baseball. The rainout provided an opportunity for McCullers Jr. to pitch on regular rest, instead of having to pitch on short-rest, if he would have been called upon yesterday. During the regular season, McCullers Jr. was even better on the road than he was when pitching at Minute Maid Park. In away starts, he posted a 3.00 FIP, 29.8 strikeout percentage, and a 1.26 WHIP. His double-digit walk-rate remains a potential concern, but it is worth noting that McCullers Jr. did not walk a single batter in Game 1. If he can limit free passes on Tuesday, Houston is likely to be heading to the next round of the playoffs.

Against left-handed pitching this year, Houston ranked fourth in OPS, fifth in ISO, 14th in walk-rate, and first in strikeout percentage. The Astros were one of the hottest offensive teams in the league during the month of September, and they have carried that momentum into the postseason, scoring 21 runs in the first three games of this series.

The Astros had one of the most inconsistent bullpens in the league this summer. This group was excellent in Game 1 and Game 2, but allowed seven earned runs in Sunday’s loss. There were some usage concerns heading into Game 4, considering that Kendall Graveman, Phil Maton, and Ryan Pressly had each appeared in two of the last four days. The Astros also used five different relievers in Game 3 to cover 5.1 innings. Cristian Javier, Brooks Raley, and Zack Greinke would have been unlikely to see action yesterday, but should be available for Manager Dusty Baker this afternoon.

Chicago White Sox (-122)

Rodon was an American League Cy Young contender for the majority of the campaign, but his 2.37 ERA, 2.63 xERA, and a 2.65 FIP are likely to be overlooked in award voting due to a decent amount of missed time on the injured list that limited him to only 24 starts. After returning from the injured list in late-August, Rodon posted a 2.35 ERA and a 3.04 FIP in five starts, but he failed to complete more than five innings in any of those outings. Chicago will likely try to get him through five strong innings once again today before handing things off to the bullpen.

Against right-handed pitching this season, the White Sox ranked ninth in OPS, 17th in ISO, third in walk-rate, and ninth in strikeout percentage. Yet, this lineup seemed to get complacent in the second half of the campaign, perhaps due to the fact that Chicago owned a sizable lead in the American League Central division heading into the final two months of the regular season. In Game 1, this offense was held to only one run on seven hits. In Game 2, Chicago scored four runs, but failed to score after the fifth inning. The White Sox had their best scoring output of the series on Sunday against Garcia, who has struggled on the road. Yet, they could run into trouble today against McCullers Jr., who had them looking lost at the plate in the series opener.

After acquiring Craig Kimbrel at the trade deadline, Chicago immediately became the most dominant bullpen in baseball. Over the final month of the regular season, this relief corps ranked best in the league in bullpen FIP. However, Aaron Bummer and Kimbrel were tagged for five runs in a devastating seventh inning in a Game 2 loss. This group was strong in Game 3, holding Houston scoreless over five innings of the ballgame. Still, this bullpen has been inconsistent to start the postseason, despite having no shortage of big names. Michael Kopech is likely the only arm unavailable for Manager Tony La Russa after he threw 47 pitches on Sunday.

Astros vs. White Sox – Game 4 Picks

Chicago has their season on the line for the second game in a row. The market is anticipating a strong performance from the White Sox after they emerged victorious by a final score of 12-6 in Sunday’s affair. Rather than trust Rodon and a recently shaky Chicago bullpen to deliver a win, bettors should turn their attention to the Astros team total in this one. Houston has scored six runs, nine runs, and six runs, respectively, in the first three games of this series. Bet on their bats to stay hot on Tuesday afternoon, especially with a forecasted 13 miles-per-hour wind blowing out towards left field.

PICK: Astros team total, Over 4 runs (-114)

Image Credit: Imagn

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom