Australia vs. USA Odds: Picks for Olympic Men's Basketball Semifinals
Australia vs. USA Odds
| Australia Odds | +12 |
| USA Odds | -12 |
| Over/Under | 179.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Aug. 5 |
| Time | 12:15 am ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
| Odds accurate as of Wednesday at BetMGM | |
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On Thursday at 12:15 AM ET, Australia and the United States will face off in a Semifinals match that is once again expected to be a relatively easy win for Team USA. This is the second time in less than a month that these two teams will face-off, after they played one another in an exhibition match in July.
Australia won all three of their contests during the preliminary round in Tokyo and dominated Argentina in the Quarterfinal round to make it to this stage of the tournament, but let’s take a deeper look at these rosters to see where bettors should place their money here.
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Olympics Men’s Basketball Semifinals Picks
In July, Australia defeated Team USA 91-83 in Las Vegas in an exhibition tune-up prior to both teams traveling to Tokyo for the Games. In that game, Patty Mills scored 22 points and the United States failed to make a single field goal in the final four minutes and 34 seconds of the game.
In the preliminary round of action, Australia defeated Nigeria 84-67, took down Italy 86-83, and easily handled Germany by a final score 89-76. Australia delivered a dominating performance in their quarterfinal matchup against Argentina—winning 97-59. Other than Mills, American basketball fans will recognize names such as Aron Baynes, Dante Exum, Matisse Thybulle, Joe Ingles, and Josh Green. A name that may become more familiar after Thursday’s contest is Nick Kay—who is averaging 13.3 points and 7.3 rebounds during the Olympics to this point. He could present problems for the United States in the paint in this matchup with the way he has been playing.
Still, the United States is heavily favored in this game for a reason. After being upset by France 83-76 to open the group phase, the United States defeated Iran 120-66, and the Czech Republic 119-84. Although they got off to a slow start in their quarter-final game against Spain, Team USA comfortably pulled away in the fourth quarter and ended up covering a 12-point spread with a 95-81 victory.
USA -12 Against the Spread
Simply put, a roster that features stars such as Kevin Durant, Damian Lillard, Zach Lavine, Jayson Tatum, Khris Middleton, and Bam Adebayo, will never be out-matched heading into a game. The important question for bettors to consider is—will the United States win by enough to cover the spread?
A challenge for Team USA every four years at the Olympics is that their roster is typically comprised of players who have no experience playing with one another on the same team. Some of the first-time participants in the Games sometimes struggle acclimating to the international rules of the competition, which leads to an occasional upset or an unexpected close final score. Yet, these vulnerabilities become less and less relevant as the team progresses further into the tournament. By now, these incredibly talented players are becoming used to sharing the floor, and the basketball with one another.
As we saw in their last game against Spain, this team is unbeatable when they lock-in. Team USA is susceptible to being underprepared psychologically at times, but with the gold medal game approaching, it is unlikely that psychological malaise or team chemistry issues will get in the way of a dominating performance. Back the United States to cover the spread in a commanding win.
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Under 179.5 Points
In the preliminary round, Australia’s game totals were 151, 169, and 165. Their quarter-final matchup against Argentina ended with 156 combined points. Team USA’s preliminary games ended with a total of 159, 186, and 203, respectively. The United States and Spain combined for 176 in their quarter-final affair. The average between Argentina’s 160.3 combined points and the United States’ 181.0 combined points comes out to 170.7—well below the current market price of 179.5 at most sportsbooks. Oddsmakers continue to assume that the United States will be better able to control the pace of play against their opponents, but as we saw against Spain, they are content to play slower, even if getting out in transition would make life easier.
There has been quite a bit of volatility in scoring totals for the United States in this tournament, but Australia is yet to have a game eclipse 170 points. Considering that there is a very limited sample size of data to analyze heading into this game, bettors should proceed with caution. However, one would have to imagine that defense should be on full display in such an important game, which would favor a slower pace—likely a pace under 179.5 points. If choosing to wager here, make it a small play on the under.
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