MLB Player Props Today: Kopech, Mahle, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (April 21)
What kind of performances can we expect on Friday from Michael Kopech, Tyler Mahle, and Joey Lucchesi? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Friday, April 21, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at
Happy Friday! Yesterday, we went 2-1 on MLB props, which included a plus-money hit on the under 1.5 total bases for Fernando Tatis in his return to the field. Today, we have three pitcher prop picks as we look to improve upon our early season 25-7 (78.1%) record in this category to begin the year.
Today’s MLB slate begins with a matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs at 2:20 p.m. EST. Still, there are 14 more games with a scheduled first pitch starting at 6:35 p.m. EST or later – meaning that bettors will have plenty of chances to take some informed risks if they are stuck at the office this afternoon.
Below are three prop leans for April 21 as we look to stay hot!
MLB Props Results – Wager Type
1st Inning: 0-2
Dinger Tuesday: 2-4
Outs Recorded: 10-1
Hitter: 5-10
Stolen Base: 0-0
Strikeout: 15-6
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MLB Player Props Today
- Michael Kopech u5.5 strikeouts
- Tyler Mahle o17.5 outs recorded
- Joey Lucchesi more than 4.0 strikeouts
Michael Kopech u5.5 strikeouts (-156), FanDuel
Michael Kopech has not been healthy since the middle of last summer, and it is painfully evident by watching him pitch. Across his final 15 starts in 2022, he had an 18.4% strikeout rate and a 5.54 FIP. In three starts to begin 2023, Kopech owns a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 9.28 FIP. The Tampa Bay Rays have emphasized good swing decisions at the plate this year, which has helped them make contact at a far higher rate than they did in 2022. Entering play on Friday, only the New York Mets, Cleveland Guardians, and Boston Red Sox have struck out at a lower rate than Tampa Bay in 2023 against right-handed pitching. Kopech has no business opening up with a market number of 5.5 here, regardless of matchup or umpire. The under is a worthwhile risk in this spot.
Tyler Mahle o17.5 outs recorded (-145), BetMGM
At first pitch today in Minnesota, the temperature is forecasted to be 35 degrees, with wind chills even colder than that. Simply, this is extremely hostile weather for hitters, and the ball will not carry well at all, even with the wind blowing out toward center field. Tyler Mahle was chased in the fifth inning when he took the mound last weekend against the New York Yankees, but he recorded 18 outs against the Houston Astros in his prior outing. The Washington Nationals rank 30th in OPS and 30th in ISO as an offense this year. Expect Mahle to have little trouble using a pitch-to-contact approach to get through six innings today in extremely pitcher-friendly weather.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Joey Lucchesi more than 4.0 strikeouts, PrizePicks
Entering play on Friday, the San Francisco Giants rank 27th out of 30 teams in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Today, they will have to contend with Joey Lucchesi, who will be making his first appearance in the big leagues since 2021. Far from a bottom-feeder, Lucchesi possesses plenty of swing-and-miss stuff in his arsenal, evident by his 24.5% career strikeout rate in the MLB and his 25.0% strikeout rate to begin 2023 in Triple-A. Lucchesi has punched out at least four batters in each of his first three starts this season in the minor leagues, including back-to-back games with six strikeouts as he has become more stretched out. The New York Mets are likely relying on Lucchesi for at least five innings tonight. Expect him to have little trouble at least pushing in this scenario, with plenty of potential for at least five strikeouts against a San Francisco lineup that struggles mightily to make contact.
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