MLB Player Props Today: Chapman, Taillon, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (May 4)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Matt Chapman, Jameson Taillon, and Masataka Yoshida? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Thursday, May 4, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB player props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Thursday! We have a 10-game MLB slate on tap for today, beginning with a matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals at 1:05 p.m. EST. Only two contests have a first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EST or later today, with many teams traveling to new cities for the weekend.
We went 1-2 yesterday, with Kyle Wright exiting due to injury being one of our two losses. Still, we are 5-2-2 to begin the new month. There is plenty of opportunity once again on the player prop market today – below are three prop leans for May 4!
MLB Props Results – Wager Type
1st Inning: 0-3
Dinger Tuesday: 2-4
Hitter: 11-17-1
Outs Recorded: 13-4
Stolen Base: 0-2
Strikeout: 25-13-1
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MLB Player Props Today
- Matt Chapman u1.5 total bases
- Jameson Taillon u4.5 strikeouts
- Masataka Yoshida more than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Matt Chapman u1.5 total bases (-140), BetMGM
Following a blistering-hot start to the new campaign, Matt Chapman has cooled off considerably across his last eight games. In that span, he has eclipsed this market number only three times – posting only four extra-base hits in his last 34 plate appearances. Much of his “cooling off” in the betting market is attributable to a sky-high 17.6% walk rate during that stretch, limiting the number of opportunities he has had to do damage with the bat. Facing Brayan Bello today, who has a 10.7% walk rate against right-handed batters this year, Chapman could suffer a similar fortune. Take the under.
Jameson Taillon u4.5 strikeouts (-155), DraftKings
In three turns through the rotation this year, Jameson Taillon has eclipsed this market number twice, with multiple 7-strikeout performances under his belt already. However, strikeouts are not a specialty of Taillon, who ranked in only the 35th percentile in strikeout percentage in 2022. Despite his early success in 2023, Taillon still ranks in only the 33rd percentile in whiff rate and the 28th percentile in chase rate, suggesting that he is due for negative regression sooner rather than later. Regression could happen as soon as this afternoon, facing a Washington Nationals lineup that has the third-lowest strikeout percentage of any team in the league against right–handed pitching this season. Take the under.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Masataka Yoshida more than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs, PrizePicks
For those with access to PrizePicks, this should be a systems play at this point. Yoshida has eclipsed this market number in 12 of his last 13 games played, with little signs of slowing down any time soon. Yoshida’s high-contact approach, paired with strong plate discipline makes him a candidate to find his way on base against any pitcher, even someone as talented as Kevin Gausman. Until proven otherwise, this is a worthwhile risk.
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