Braves vs. Brewers Game 2 Odds, Preview, Picks & Prediction (Sat., Oct. 9)
Braves vs. Brewers Odds
| Braves Odds | +104 |
| Brewers Odds | -122 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 9 |
| Time | 5:07 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
On Saturday evening, the Atlanta Braves and the Milwaukee Brewers will battle in the National League Division Series at American Family Field. Entering play, Atlanta has won 12 of their last 15 games. Milwaukee has lost 10 of their last 15 contests. In Game 2, the Braves will send Max Fried to the hill. He will be opposed by Brandon Woodruff. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Brewers securing a commanding 2-0 series lead, pricing Milwaukee as -122 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Atlanta Braves (+104)
In 28 starts for the Braves this year, Fried posted a 3.04 ERA, 3.49 xERA, and a 3.31 FIP. However, even those excellent numbers do not paint an accurate picture of how good Fried was in 2021. He began the season pitching through an injury. After returning from the injured list at the beginning of May, Fried posted a 2.44 ERA and a 3.09 FIP across his last 25 outings. In his last 12 trips to the mound, Fried delivered 12 quality starts, including a 1.56 ERA and a 2.65 FIP. Bettors should expect another dominant performance from Fried on Saturday.
Since the beginning of September, the Braves offense ranks 11th in OPS and fourth in ISO, but are 27th in walk-rate and 26th in strikeout percentage at the plate. Yesterday, Atlanta drew four walks, but eight strikeouts contributed and zero hits with runners-in-scoring-position resulted in only a single run being put on the board. Jorge Soler, Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley are a talented foursome in this lineup, but poor contact skills are a constant threat to kill rallies for this group. Atlanta should be able to plate more than one run today, but it would be surprising to see an offensive onslaught from this lineup.
Over the final month and change of the regular season, Atlanta’s relief corps ranked ninth in bullpen FIP. Tyler Matzek, A.J. Minter, and Luke Jackson were sensational during the second half of the campaign. Jackson and Matzek combined to deliver two scoreless innings yesterday in the loss, but Minter and the rest of the bullpen are rested and available for Manager Brian Snitker today. Even Jackson and Matzek should be available, considering that both threw 19 pitches or less yesterday.
Milwaukee Brewers (-156)
Through 30 turns in the rotation for Milwaukee in 2021, Woodruff posted a 2.56 ERA, 3.29 xERA, and a 2.96 FIP. He was even better when pitching at home with a 2.74 FIP and a 0.98 WHIP. On the year, Woodruff ranked in the 81st percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, barrel-rate, strikeout and walk percentage, and chase rate. Woodruff’s outstanding swing-and-miss ability should play nicely against an Atlanta offense with poor contact skills. Expect a strong outing from Woodruff in Game 2.
Yet, while the Brewers pitching staff is solid, Milwaukee’s anemic offensive attack is a concern. Since September 1, the Brewers offense ranks 26th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, fourth in walk-rate, and 19th in strikeout percentage. Against left-handed pitching this year, the Brewers ranked 23rd in OPS and 22nd in ISO. Milwaukee is going to have a difficult time generating much solid contact against Fried. Bettors should not expect many runs from this group today.
While Woodruff has been excellent, Milwaukee’s bullpen has not been so good. Over the last month, the Brewers relief unit ranks 27th in bullpen FIP. The fact that Devin Williams irresponsibly fractured his hand is not going to help matters. Adrian Houser and Josh Hader threw 26 pitches and 20 pitches, respectively, in yesterday’s victory. While both pitchers should be available once again today, Milwaukee’s recipe for success rests precariously on Woodruff’s ability to get through at least six, probably seven, strong innings in this contest.
Braves vs. Brewers Picks
For the second day consecutive day, both of these offenses are likely to struggle against dominant starting pitching. However, a total priced at 7.5 runs presents some risk for a full game, considering the fact that there are numerous less talented arms that could find their way into this game in the latter frames. If looking to play the total, play the under on the first five innings. If looking for a team to back, take the Braves in this one—the team with the far superior offense, the better bullpen, and a starting pitcher who is capable of keeping them competitive into the late innings.
PICK: Braves ML (+104), Under 3.5 Runs First 5 innings (-115)
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