Cardinals vs. Titans Player Props: Bets for Brown, Tannehill & Hopkins
Fresh off a perfect 3-for-3 day at the sportsbook, Andy Means returns with picks for Cardinals & Titans player props. For more free NFL betting tips, check out Meansy’s Cardinals vs. Titans Odds Preview.
Titans Player Prop Bets
A.J. Brown Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Caesars)
This line seems a little deflated, as I’m guessing the arrival of Julio Jones in Tennessee this past offseason has the market thinking that will put a dent into Brown’s production. I think the opposite might actually be true, as Julio’s presence on the other side should open up even more space for Brown to operate.
And oh boy should he be able to operate against this Cardinals secondary! Patrick Peterson is now in Minnesota. The Cardinals brought in Malcolm Butler during the offseason to try to help solidify that secondary, and then Butler abruptly retired last week. As a result, Brown is likely to see a bunch of cornerbacks named Robert Alford, Byron Murphy, and Marco Wilson. Who? Exactly.
Alford last played in a real NFL game in 2018.
Wilson was the 136th pick (4th round) in the draft this summer.
Murphy might be their best bet, as he was 46th in Coverage Rating per Player Profiler (Pro Football Focus had him graded as the 48th best cornerback in 2020). Still though, he should be no match for Brown.
I suppose the best defense against Brown hitting the over on this prop may be his own offense, as there is still some guy named Derrick Henry in the backfield. Will new OC Todd Downing still feed the beast an inordinate amount of times? Or will Downing recognize how bad this Cardinals secondary is and dial up a ton of passes? We shall find out Sunday.
For what it’s worth, our projections at RotoGrinders are banking on Brown having a field day in Week 1. We have Brown projected for 83.24 receiving yards at the time I am writing this. So at ‘just’ -115 at Caesars, I think this is a bet we should absolutely be willing to jump on.
Ryan Tannehill Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-115 at PointsBet)
If I’m rolling with Brown’s over, I might as well roll with Tannehill’s too, right?
Seriously though, the very first thing that jumped out at me here is the crazy value we can get at this number over on PointsBet. At the time I am writing this, all of DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesars have this number at 249.5 (all essentially at -115, too), and yet here is PointsBet coming in at a cool 245.5. Maybe Tannehill let PointsBet know that they are going to give the ball to Derrick Henry literally every play of the game. Or maybe it’s just a bad number. I think I’ll go with the latter!
I will say that I feel a little less certain about this one than I do about Brown’s. Heck, Brown can hit the over on his prop on one big play, whereas Tannehill hitting the over will be more of a slow grind.
But again, our projections at RotoGrinders have this as a clear bet on the over. We currently have Tannehill projected for 265.92 passing yards. That’s telling me we should still be betting on Tannehill’s over even if PointsBet didn’t exist and we had to fire at over 249.5. But PointsBet does exist…and they do have this down at 245.5. So, my friends, you know what to do!
Cardinals Player Prop Bets
DeAndre Hopkins Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
I like the over on this bet for similar reasons that I laid out in the bets above.
1) We get some nice value on this number over at FanDuel. Whereas PointsBet (82.5 at -115), DraftKings (83.5 at -115), and Caesars (83.5 at -115) have the line several yards higher, FanDuel is sitting down there at 78.5.
2) Hopkins gets to face an awfully leaky secondary. In 2020, the Titans allowed the fourth most receiving yards (3,100) to opposing wide receivers. To try and shore that up, they drafted Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech) with the 22nd overall pick. Reports out of training camp though indicate that Farley didn’t even win the starting job yet. The Titans also brought in Janoris Jenkins from New Orleans. And while Jenkins graded out just fine on Player Profiler and Pro Football Focus, he’s also about a month away from being 33 years old. I don’t think many would disagree that his best days are behind him. Give me Hopkins every day of the week here, and twice on Sunday (Sunday!!).
And lastly, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention what our RotoGrinders projections have for Hopkins here in this Week 1 matchup. The exact answer? 92.26 receiving yards. I might need a judge’s ruling here, but I’m pretty sure that is quite a bit more than 78.5.
Yes, they are only projections. But when I see a gap that big, I want to pounce. And when I see that all of the other books have the line even higher, I want to pounce even more. Just call me Maurkice Pouncey.
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