Chiefs vs. Falcons Same Game Parlay Picks and Predictions for Today
The NFL closes out the third Sunday with another Kirk Cousins primetime game. Oh, Patrick Mahomes is in primetime as well. The Chiefs travel to Atlanta to square off with the Falcons on Sunday Night Football. After a road upset victory against the Eagles on Monday night, the Falcons look to upset one of the AFC’s best. Patrick Mahomes will orchestrate an offense that will be forced to throw more given their backfield issues. This game could offer fireworks. Let’s break the contest down before placing another same game parlay wager on Sunday night.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Same Game Parlay Preview
DraftKings Sportsbook presents the Falcons as 3-point underdogs in their building. The Chiefs opened as 4.5-point favorites, but the line continues to move toward the Atlanta side. The Chiefs’ recent offensive performance and loss of a key offensive piece could be why.
ScoresAndOdds reports that a bulk of wagers side with the Chiefs’ spread, but the money is split nearly 50/50. The implied game total rests at 46.5 points and features split action right down the middle with both bets and money. The total has not moved off of 46.5 points throughout the week.
For the Chiefs, Isiah Pacheco is out for a very long time with a fractured fibula. Pacheco went through surgery and his timetable for returning this season is unclear. The Chiefs signed Kareem Hunt to the practice squad but stated that Hunt would not be elevated this week. Instead, the Chiefs will use Carson Steele and Samaje Perine this week in the backfield. Playing against a team only ceding 4.0 yards per rushing attempt, one might conclude that Patrick Mahomes and the passing offense will be very busy on Sunday night.
For the Falcons, the only question mark was Tyler Allgeier leading into Sunday. Allgeier practiced in full and was removed from the injury report altogether. The Falcons will be in full health heading into Sunday night after putting together a much better offensive performance against Philadelphia on Monday night. Kirk Cousins will need time to get back in form but performed better against a more generous Eagles passing defense. Cousins threw for 240 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. Drake London was more involved and caught the game-winning touchdown. At home, the Falcons offense will aim to keep pace with Kansas City.
The Chiefs rank in the top 5 in yards per pass attempt thus far in 2024. However, Patrick Mahomes and company only averaged 6 yards per pass attempt in Week 2 against the Bengals. The Chiefs’ identity changed in 2023, with defense and running the football taking precedence over aerial assaults. However, without Isiah Pacheco or a dynamic backup option, Patrick Mahomes might need to do Patrick Mahomes things in a dome. Mahomes’ passing prop sits at 268.5 yards on DraftKings Sportsbook. Given the circumstances, that number might be too low.
Last season, the Chiefs ranked among the league’s best in yards per play on defense. This season, however, the Chiefs have been a bit more generous. Joe Burrow threw for 258 yards and 2 scores without any turnovers. Mike Gesicki was unleashed to the tune of 7 catches for more than 90 yards. Without Tee Higgins, the Bengals’ offensive success was surprising after the struggles endured in Week 1.
The Falcons made it clear again in Week 2 that Bijan Robinson will be the focal point of the offense. Going against a Philadelphia team armed to stuff the run, Bijan took 14 carries for 97 yards, adding 4 catches on 5 targets. That is another week with high volume for the budding star. Against the Chiefs, we shouldn’t be surprised if Robinson sees more than 20 touches, as the Falcons look to keep Patrick Mahomes off of the football field.
Meanwhile, for the Chiefs, Travis Kelce seems to be aging finally. Either Kelce is aging or his off-the-field interests are becoming more important than his play on the field. Kelce has a measly 4 catches on his ledger in 2024 and is no longer the primary option for Patrick Mahomes. Rashee Rice emerged at the end of 2023 and continues to be the focal point, boasting more than a 30% target share. Without a running attack, will Kelce be more involved?
Let’s build our same game parlay for the Chiefs at the Falcons.
Same Game Parlay Picks for Chiefs vs. Falcons
- Patrick Mahomes Over 268.5 Passing Yards
- Kyle Pitts Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
- Samaje Perine Over 2.5 Receptions
Patrick Mahomes Over 268.5 Passing Yards
I alluded to this earlier in the article, but this feels like the Patrick Mahomes show on Sunday night. NBC will be a nonstop barrage of platitudes toward Mahomes mixed in with a few camera cuts to Taylor Swift. Tonight, the platitudes will be spot on.
Mahomes might need to get to 300 yards to beat the Falcons in their building without Isiah Pacheco grinding the clock down for the Chiefs. Rashee Rice emerged last season and Xavier Worthy looks very worthy (sorry) of his quarterback’s attention. Carson Steele filled in for Pacheco immediately but only mustered 24 rushing yards on 7 attempts with an ill-timed fumble. The Chiefs are going to stick to what they know. What they know is Patrick Mahomes can make defenses pay.
He has been a bit sloppy with the ball this year, but that could only help our chances if Kansas City needs to throw more. I think this prop is in play regardless of the game script.
Kyle Pitts Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
The Chiefs have allowed plenty of receiving work to tight ends to start the season. Isaiah Likely shredded the Chiefs’ secondary in Week 1 for 9 catches and 111 yards. Mike Gesicki caught 7 balls for 91 yards last weekend.
The Chiefs are known for eliminating the top wide receiver from the opposing offense each week. Drake London will get that attention, leaving Pitts over the middle and on the outside for a tick up in work. Many assumed Pitts would break out this season with a passing quarterback at the helm. Once Kirk Cousins gets back in form, we should anticipate Pitts being a focal point of the passing game.
That starts tonight with a team willing to sell out to stop WR1. This is my favorite prop of the night.
Samaje Perine Over 2.5 Receptions
Carson Steele immediately took the reins when Isiah Pacheco was lost in Week 2. With that opportunity, Steele didn’t do much despite the buzz and acclaim surrounding the rookie. Steele could play well tonight, but don’t expect Andy Reid to wait forever to call Perine’s number.
Samaje Perine caught 1 pass on 1 target last weekend. Perine is also getting up to speed with the offense and is likely going to see more passing game work each week as a reliable target for years in Cincinnati and Denver. Perine might be on the field for every third down and 2-minute snap and could see some early down snaps if the Chiefs spread the Falcons out.
The juice is on the over with this prop. We add it before it gets too pricey.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Parlay Odds
- Patrick Mahomes Over 268.5 Passing Yards
- Kyle Pitts Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
- Samaje Perine Over 2.5 Receptions
DraftKings Sportsbook offers the following odds:
DRAFTKINGSParlay Odds: +445
Risk: 0.5 unit to win 2.225 units
Good luck with all of your wagers for this game. Share your parlays with me on X.
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