Primetime Parlay: Giants vs. Cowboys Same Game Parlay Picks
Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped us create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulation, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Sunday Night Football same-game parlay for the Dallas Cowboys versus the New York Giants.
The NFL wasted no time with a rivalry game, as the Dallas Cowboys square off with the Giants at MetLife Stadium for this season’s first Sunday Night Football contest. The Giants look to improve upon a shocking playoff season in 2022 while the Cowboys look to return to the playoffs and chase glory. Football games normally aren’t this pivotal in Week 1. The winner of this matchup will gain a leg up on what should be a very competitive NFC East division. Let’s start with some betting information, injury news, and statistics prior to using ParlayIQ to concoct a same-game parlay ticket.
Cowboys vs. Giants Same Game Parlay
At the time of this writing, the Giants are 3.5-point home underdogs on FanDuel Sportsbook. 62% of betting tickets are on the Giants’ side of the point spread while the actual money is closer to 50/50. The Cowboys seem to be instilled as the better team, but a home underdog is a tricky fade in prime time.
As for scoring, FanDuel features a 45.5-point implied total in tonight’s contest. North of 75% of both betting tickets and handle are on the under, which has moved a full point this week. With some potential rain in the forecast and the strength of Dallas’ pass defense, we can easily come up with a script for this game to be a low-scoring affair.
As for injuries, Dallas comes into tonight’s game with some potential trouble on the offensive line. Tyler Smith is doubtful to play at left guard while Tyron Smith was added to the injury report on Thursday with an ankle injury. The scuttlebutt would suggest that Tyron Smith will play, but we should check the report before kickoff. As for the Giants, Wan’Dale Robinson is doubtful, and Darren Waller was added to the injury report this week with a hamstring injury. As of this writing, Waller is reported likely to play in tonight’s game. If both of the Giants missed tonight’s game, expect an uptick in production for Jalin Hyatt and Sterling Shepard.
The Giants were one of the worst defenses in the league in 2022 with respect to rushing yards per attempt — finishing second-to-last with a 5.3 rushing yard per attempt average. Now clear for bellcow work, expect Tony Pollard to be used early and often to take advantage of the weakness up front.
The Dallas defense was very strong last year — especially against opposing passing offenses. The Cowboys allowed only 6.1 yards per pass attempt and finished third in the league in sack percentage (8.25%). Micah Parsons will be on the Giants’ mind all night as the potential defensive player of the year will look to cause havoc in the backfield.
Let’s take a look at ParlayIQ to see what outcomes our simulations favor for this evening’s tilt.
Same Game Parlay Picks for SNF
Tony Pollard Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
ParlayIQ has simulated this game 4,908 times as of Sunday morning. Tony Pollard exceeds his receiving prop on FanDuel in 68% of those simulations. Pollard is electric with the ball in his hands and should see more opportunities than ever this season with Ezekiel Elliott in New England.
The Giants were pretty effective at limiting running backs out of the backfield last season, but Pollard is projected for more than enough volume to exceed this small number. RotoGrinders projects Pollard for nearly 4 targets and almost 25 yards. Pollard is so dynamic that we could see him exceed this number on one swing pass.
This early in the season, we are going to put our faith in ParlayIQ for our recreational tickets. We will open with this prop and likely see a very, very favorable price regardless of what our other choices are.
Daniel Jones Over 32.5 Rushing Yards
Daniel Jones is known for his athleticism despite taking leaps as a passer last season. Cutting down on turnovers, Jones looks to take additional steps forward this season, as the Giant offense looks to mature under Brian Daboll.
Jones exceeded this rushing total nine times last season, including a 71-yard performance against the Dallas Cowboys. We know that once Jones gets loose, he is a threat for six. Given the constant pressure that Dallas presents to quarterbacks, we won’t be shocked to see Jones running for his life and shaking free from time to time. Jones is fast enough to make the Cowboys pay if they leave a gap open, and I expect him to get enough rushes in to leap over this prop.
At this point, ParlayIQ suggests that FanDuel should price this two-leg parlay at +132. We are way, way ahead in terms of expected value per our simulations.
Brandin Cooks Under 44.5 Receiving Yards
Cooks finds another new home after another productive season in Houston in 2022. Cooks continues to have the athleticism to stretch opposing defenses and makes plenty of sense as another weapon for Dak Prescott.
With Kellen Moore in Los Angeles, there might be a reason to believe the Cowboys will lean on the running game this season. When you consider Dak’s issues with protecting the football, the Mike McCarthy we all know and love might be back to take control of the offensive game plan. As an old-school coach, I can talk myself into the Cowboys running the ball all night — especially when you consider the Giants’ struggles with opposing rushing attacks.
With CeeDee Lamb being the primary target and Michael Gallup returning to health, Dallas has so many mouths to feed. ParlayIQ loves this parlay leg with our current script, and it seems we will be sweating a long reception. I am comfortable making this our third leg.
Saquon Barkley Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, under constant duress, Daniel Jones might need a safety valve often this evening. Look no further than Saquon Barkley.
Barkley had a 45-yard receiving performance the same night that Daniel Jones exceeded 70 yards on the ground. We surely would sign up for that tonight! Barkley was hit or miss as a receiver last year but saw a higher volume of targets late in the season. With no reason to nurse Saquon anymore, he should see whatever work is required, as the Giants aim for a big win to open the season.
ParlayIQ features this over in north of 60% of the simulations that included the other three legs. So as far as ParlayIQ is concerned, our ticket fits a very likely outcome per the thousands of simulations.
Cowboys vs. Giants Parlay Odds
- Tony Pollard Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
- Daniel Jones Over 32.5 Rushing Yards
- Brandin Cooks Under 44.5 Receiving Yards
- Saquon Barkley Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Here is a look at what ParlayIQ thinks about this parlay:
Here is a look at our ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook:
This is quite the discrepancy between the simulations and what FanDuel is willing to offer us as a price. Does that mean we should bet the house? Absolutely not. This is still a very unlikely outcome and should be treated as a fun way to sweat a prime time game. With that said, this is one of the larger differences between ParlayIQ’s suggestion and the actual price offering that I have ever seen.
Hopefully, this simply means we can hit. We will wager our typical half-unit, which takes us to one unit bet on the season so far.
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Parlay Odds: +1310
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 6.55 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Player props? Thanks for reading.