Daily Batter Breakdown: Mon, April 21st

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-04-21 18:38:49

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

Hopefully everyone had a great Easter weekend and was profitable in DFS. With a few weeks of data now and NHL and NBA in the playoffs, it’s a perfect time to get back into the grind. I had a few days of no baseball, but definitely am looking to get back into the grind tonight and tonight’s slate looks like a really solid one as there are a few teams that are definitely ones you want to target.

		Buster Posey
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.200	0.561	0.00%	0.262
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.053	0.234	0.00%	0.109
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		De La Rosa – LEFT			0.285	0.769	8.64%	0.350
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$3,100	$7,111	$9,450	$5,100	$73,800	$6,500	$11,500

Buster Posey

Posey and the Giants offense has been dreadful in the last couple of weeks and his average is lower than we are used to seeing it. Posey, in fact, had 1 hit in his last 15 at bats before homering on Easter Sunday. His price is extremely low and guess where he is hitting tonight? Yes, Coors Field, and to make it even better for Posey he gets a left handed pitcher to boot. Other than his batting slump everything seems primed for him to have a huge night tonight and his lower prices because of the slump makes everything more appealing.

		Anthony Rizzo
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.324	0.999	5.41%	0.437
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.353	1.097	5.88%	0.47
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Arroyo – RIGHT			0.300	0.861	4.73%	0.373
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.192	1.022	$3,300	$7,161	$10,250	$4,300	$81,100	$6,800	$9,500

Anthony Rizzo

There are two main factors that are Rizzo’s strength when batting. One is hitting at Wrigley, and the other is hitting against a right hander. Both hitting away and against left handers make him extremely difficult to take as his numbers just aren’t good in those situations and over his career they are almost 200 points of OPS different. This year, Rizzo is pounding the ball in the favorable situations hitting at an OPS of 1.011 at home and 1.127 at Wrigley. He has a fantastic matchup tonight against Arroyo who loves giving up the long ball and his price is affordable.

		Jason Kipnis
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.250	0.838	3.13%	0.381
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.267	0.783	0.00%	0.373
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Guthrie – RIGHT			0.325	0.886	6.88%	0.389
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.933	0.992	$3,400	$6,638	$10,650	$4,900	$77,600	$7,200	$10,900

Jason Kipnis

Vegas is really hating on Guthrie tonight at progressive, pegging the Indians at 4.5 for the over/under tonight. I can see why as Guthrie really struggles against left handed batters allowing a .302 average and a .847 OPS to them. Kipnis has really done his best work against right handers, especially this year and should be able to have a nice game against the Guthrie especially in a lineup Guthrie has had no luck controlling in his history.

		Troy Tulowitzki
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.306	1.060	5.56%	0.445
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.364	1.091	4.55%	0.475
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Vogelsong – RIGHT			0.316	0.872	9.25%	0.395
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$4,300	$9,998	$12,650	$5,300	$99,200	$8,800	$12,500

Troy Tulowitzki

Tulo becomes the auto top play at shortstop tonight being that he is playing in Coors. He’s expensive but if he goes off he’s one of those guys where you need to have him to contend in a GPP. His 1.139 OPS against right handers this year is nice as is his 1.904 absurd OPS at home this year. I wouldn’t overthink this, just plug him in especially against Vogelsong who has some really subpar advanced metrics this year and he’s only pitched in pitcher’s parks so far.

		Chris Johnson
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.240	0.650	2.00%	0.280
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.412	0.941	0.00%	0.413
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Koehler – RIGHT			0.280	0.776	7.27%	0.348
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.956	0.932	$2,800	$4,380	$7,450	$3,600	$51,800	$5,100	$8,300

Chris Johnson

Chris Johnson is a reverse splits pick tonight. If you look at Johnson’s career, there really isn’t that big of a difference in right handed pitchers vs left handed pitchers as he hits for power against them both pretty equal. Vegas does not appear to be fooled by Koehler’s last outing giving the Braves the 4.5 over/under tonight as well. Koehler is another reason for the reverse splits as he is worse against right handed batters than he is against lefties giving up a .811 OPS in the last 3 years which is 100 points higher than lefties. He’s also been great against lefties this year and continued to struggle against right handers. Johnson is extremely cheap and should be a nice option tonight.

		Michael Brantley
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.256	0.633	0.00%	0.291
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.211	0.844	10.53%	0.37
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Guthrie – RIGHT			0.325	0.886	6.88%	0.389
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.933	0.992	$3,400	$7,474	$10,100	$5,000	$79,900	$6,900	$8,600

Michael Brantley

Brantley is another Indians lefty that should have a good game. Brantley has hit 3 homers in the last week and change and is showing off a little bit of extra power. As noted above, the Indians are favored in this game pretty heavily and Guthrie struggles against left handed hitters. In the last 3 years, Brantley has 22 HRs off righties and 1 off lefties so the 2 off lefties he has hit this year is either a fluke or he’s showing some extra power. Whatever it is, he has a nice matchup tonight.

		Rajai Davis
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.667	1.267	0.00%	0.496
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.333	0.788	0.00%	0.373
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Danks – LEFT			0.264	0.764	5.31%	0.335
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.139	1.090	$3,200	$7,333	$9,850	$4,600	$72,600	$6,200	$10,100

Rajai Davis

Davis’ price has risen to a higher level than I would like it but I still really like him tonight especially if he is hitting leadoff. Danks has been fairly effective this year but Vegas is loving the Tigers tonight in almost the same way as the Indians. Lots of Tigers have solid numbers against Danks and their powerful lineup should be able to get to him. Steals are a little bit harder to come by against southpaws however Davis should make up for the lack of those with hitting power against lefties as he crushed them for a .319 average and .857 OPS last year.

		Michael Morse
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.250	1.056	12.50%	0.447
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.188	0.653	6.25%	0.296
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		De La Rosa – LEFT			0.285	0.769	8.64%	0.350
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$2,900	$5,504	$7,150	$4,000	$60,100	$4,900	$9,100

Michael Morse

Morse is extremely cheap most everywhere and should be easy to plug in on most sites especially with him hitting at Coors Field. Morse hasn’t been great lately but what he brings to the table is a guy who has hit .486 at Coors with a 1.203 OPS in the last 3 years and hits fairly well against left handed batters. Morse and Posey make a nice tandem against De La Rosa who has been, for the lack of a better word, awful this season especially against right handers.

		Ian Kinsler
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.444	1.222	11.11%	0.533
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.364	0.893	4.55%	0.381
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Danks – LEFT			0.264	0.764	5.31%	0.335
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.139	1.090	$3,400	$8,371	$11,750	$5,600	$95,700	$8,100	$11,300

Ian Kinsler

I love Kinsler at 2nd base tonight, and even though I don’t like BVP all that much I am looking at the 12/31 with 4 HR and a 1.295 OPS against Danks in his career as a favorable stat. I also love the fact that he has hit lefties to an .894 clip and he is in a powerful lineup who all like to mash left handed pitching. He’s really affordable on FanDuel, and while not so much on DraftKings, still makes one of the top 2nd base plays of the night at home.

		Andrew Romine
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.000	0.000	0.00%	0.000
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.333	0.833	0.00%	0.397
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Danks – LEFT			0.281	0.789	6.25%	0.346
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.139	1.044	$2,200	$4,196	$7,900	$2,200	$29,300	$4,000	$5,400

Andrew Romine

To fit in some of the studs you are going to need some cheap players, and Andrew Romine fits the bill here. Romine should get most of the starts at shortstop now that Alex Gonzalez is cut, and in the last week it appears that he has been getting more comfortable at the plate. He doesn’t have great stats but he does have a 3 game hit streak with walks in all of those games and is going to be hitting in a potent offense at the bottom which should put him right in front of Davis and Kinsler who I like to have big games tonight as well. This is more of a Tigers stack play or a cheap filler at SS but if you are fading Tulo and punting SS, he’s not a bad option.