Daily Batter Breakdown: Tuesday, June 23rd

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-06-26 15:15:10

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

As usual, games in Coors Field will not be previewed here; that game has an over/under of 11 runs and Kendrick is pitching, which is always fantastic for DFS purposes. You’ll have to pay up for those guys, but it should be well worth it.

		Brian McCann
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.231	0.701	4.51%	0.308
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.364	0.962	4.55%	0.424
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		O’Sullivan – RIGHT		0.330	1.016	7.14%	0.426
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.170	0.000	$3,600	$8,900	$4,800	$77,400

Brian McCann

McCann was 50% owned last night, and for good reason. He was facing a terrible pitcher against lefties in a park built for lefties. Even with more teams on the slate tonight, he should be one of the better catcher plays on the docket. He has rebounded from his poor 2014 to post numbers more in line with his career this year, so a .376 wOBA and 141 wRC+ are not bad numbers. He is expensive, but O’Sullivan has allowed a .427 wOBA against lefties this year to go along with a terrible xFIP.

		Garrett Jones
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.248	0.734	3.41%	0.321
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.071	0.259	0.00%	0.141
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		O’Sullivan – RIGHT		0.330	1.016	7.14%	0.426
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.170	0.000	$2,200	$5,000	$2,900	$36,900

Garrett Jones

If you are not stacking the Coors game, the best stack outside of that has to be the Yankees. O’Sullivan’s numbers against lefties are just awful and he should allow a few homers. If you want to stack the Yankees, you will need some value, and with Jones taking over for Teixeira for a bit, he is getting starts and is cheap everywhere (bare minimum on FanDuel). I talked above about O’Sullivan’s ridiculously bad numbers against lefties (career 5.50 xFIP as well), and he should get shelled.

		Robinson Cano
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.302	0.809	2.31%	0.349
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.318	0.742	0.00%	0.318
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Guthrie – RIGHT		0.303	0.863	4.66%	0.377
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.773	0.000	$2,400	$6,950	$3,600	$55,500

Robinson Cano

Cano homered last night, and while everyone spits on him in DFS, I am looking for a spot to use him at his ridiculously low price. We are not even through half of a season, and while he is definitely struggling, he has been one of the top hitters in the game for a lot of years. Cano has a career .376 wOBA against righties with a 134 wRC+, and while this year he has been absolutely terrible, he is going to rebound at some point. I am looking at this as start of the turnaround, as he got one out last night and gets to face Guthrie, who we all know struggles against lefties.

		Manny Machado
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.290	0.830	4.84%	0.361
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.448	1.343	10.34%	0.565
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Kelly – RIGHT		0.262	0.000		0.334
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.116	0.000	$4,400	$12,100	$5,500	$101,200

Manny Machado

Machado is expensive, but he is one of my favorite plays of the day. Both him and Kelly are supporting huge reverse splits numbers, so the fact that he is against a right-hander tonight is actually a good thing. Machado could be the hottest hitter in the game with at least two hits in each of his last four games and he continues to hit for power as well. His .376 wOBA against righties is solid, as is his 141 wRC+. Kelly, on the other hand, has allowed a .366 wOBA to right-handed hitters, and this looks like an appealing spot to target a R/R split.

		Carlos Correa
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.333	1.027	8.33%	0.438
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.355	0.923	3.23%	0.399
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Wilson – LEFT		0.258	0.728	2.75%	0.324
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.883	0.000	$3,700	$7,600	$3,800	$65,000

Carlos Correa

Correa has cooled a bit since his lightning fast start, but is still cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings and opens up a lot of doors. He is immediately one of the better hitting shortstops in the game. Wilson’s numbers are not bad, in fact, he is having one of his best seasons against righties in his career, which means that there possibly will be some regression. I typically do not target guys against pitchers having great seasons, but Correa is a great prospect and his price is low.

		Logan Morrison
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.254	0.745	3.99%	0.326
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.231	0.58	0.00%	0.267
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Guthrie – RIGHT		0.303	0.863	4.66%	0.377
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.773	0.000	$2,400	$7,550	$3,700	$61,400

Logan Morrison

Still cheap everywhere, Morrison gets to face Guthrie, who is prone to complete implosions against lefties. Not only is the Mariners lineup stacked with strong left-handers, but Morrison has been leading off against righties. Guthrie’s .413 wOBA allowed to righties is not good (along with his 5.35 xFIP), and Morrison has added some power and has decent numbers against lefties, including a .346 wOBA and a 126 wRC+.

		Brett Gardner
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.267	0.791	3.34%	0.347
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.333	1	6.67%	0.425
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		O’Sullivan – RIGHT		0.330	1.016	7.14%	0.426
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.170	0.000	$4,000	$9,750	$4,600	$82,300

Brett Gardner

I talked briefly about O’Sullivan above, but he really does not have a good shot against this Yankees lineup. His numbers have been just awful against lefties for the last few years and Gardner is red hot right now. Yeah, he is expensive, but he is cheaper than last night and his .372 wOBA and 138 wRC+ against righties is fantastic, along with his ability to grab bags. Gardner has one of the biggest upsides out there tonight.

		Kevin Kiermaier
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.274	0.809	3.07%	0.350
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.267	0.724	0.00%	0.311
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Dickey – RIGHT		0.224	0.701	2.55%	0.312
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.094	0.000	$2,600	$6,650	$3,600	$52,100

Kevin Kiermaier

Now stuck at the top of the lineup for the Rays, Kiermaier has been great in the last few games and is one of the hotter hitters in the majors. This Rays lineup continues to get it done, and with Dickey coming to the dome, that could spell disaster. Dickey has not been great this year; his xFIP is nasty at over 5, and his K% is one of the worst of his career. Couple that with Kiermaier hitting well against righties with a .188 ISO and a .331 wOBA and his ability for some speed, and you could have a solid bargain play that will be low owned.

		Josh Reddick
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.306	0.902	4.72%	0.390
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.156	0.344	0.00%	0.15
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Chi Gonzalez – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.123	0.000	$3,100	$7,950	$4,700	$68,400

Josh Reddick

I’m done outright targeting Chi-Chi Gonzalez, but I am still looking at ways to abuse his unsustainable pitching right now. He has been great, but he’s also allowed a 4.48 xFIP against lefties, and his LOB% is 94%, which absolutely will not fly. Gonzalez is getting it done because of the defense behind him (he has no strikeout pitch), and Reddick has been on the money this year with a .418 wOBA and a 175 wRC+ against right-handers. This is definitely a spot where we should see some regression on the part of the Rangers pitcher.

		Kendrys Morales
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.258	0.674	2.22%	0.295
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.381	0.933	4.76%	0.408
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Montgomery – LEFT		0.205	0.513	1.28%	0.230
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.773	0.000	$2,700	$7,650	$4,000	$65,400

Kendrys Morales

Montgomery has been solid against right-handers this year, posting a 4.35 xFIP in 21 innings, but he has not been great. He has relied a lot on BABIP to keep his ERA and his wOBA against righties down and could really struggle against the Royals tonight. Kansas City will put it in play and chances are they will hurt Montgomery somewhere. Morales has been solid this year against lefties, and while I would rather have him batting lefty, this could be an interesting low owned GPP play with a little bit of upside.