Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 12
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play, especially in cash games. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I also think you can put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
I typically use this paragraph to talk about various topics related to DFS/NFL. This week I just want to say Happy Thanksgiving to everyone at RotoGrinders and thank you for reading the article and providing comments. I do my best to update this article later in the week and answer any questions posted in the comments section (sometimes easier said than done with a four month old daughter at home).
Week 11 2016 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect an average of defensive fantasy points from the start of the 2014 season through Week 11 2016. Top plays and secondary plays only started in Week 7 2016 as a way to breakout defense that fit the criteria into two separate categories.
All Defenses that Fit the Criteria: 8.77
Top Plays (Defense that Fit the Criteria): 8.75
Secondary Plays (Defense that Fit the Criteria): 8.10
Other Defenses to Target: 8.11
All Favorites: 8.14
All Home Teams: 7.29
All Teams: 6.86
Week 11 was a below average week for the defenses that fit the criteria. The biggest disappointment was the Kansas City Chiefs who had been scorching hot entering the week. They held Tampa to 19 points but were only able to produce four fantasy points. The Giants and Seahawks were both average producing eight fantasy points while Dallas was below average with three fantasy points. The one team that panned out was the Detroit Lions, who I mentioned as a contrarian GPP option, as they produced 22 fantasy points last week, tied for the highest of the week.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (At Home, Favored and Opponent Team Total of 21 points or less
Top Plays
Buffalo Bills ($4800 FD, $3800 DK)
Opponent: Jacksonville
Spread: -7
Team Total: 18.50
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 9.00 (5th highest)
Buffalo’s defense has been above average this year ranking both 12th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense. Their biggest contribution though has been that they lead the league in sacks with 31 and they also have forced a respectable 14 turnovers. This week they face a Jacksonville offense that ranks 21st in total offense and 27th in scoring defense. The Jaguars are giving up nine fantasy points per game to opposing defenses which is the fifth highest in the NFL. This is mostly due to the fact they are tied for the league high with 22 turnovers and have also given up 21 sacks. We saw last week the upside the Jaguars provide to opposing defenses when the Lions put up 22 fantasy points. Blake Bortles has now thrown at least one interception in 8 of 10 games. The Bills are my favorite play of the week and can be used in both cash games and GPPs.
Denver Broncos ($4900 FD, $3700 DK)
Opponent: Kansas City
Spread: -3.5
Team Total: 18.25
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 5.20 (24th highest)
The Broncos defense may not be as dominate as last year, but they still rank fourth in total defense and ninth in scoring defense, while racking up 29 sacks (fifth in NFL) and 20 turnovers (second in NFL). They also have been much better at home where they are averaging over 12 fantasy points per game. This week they face a Chiefs offense that has been struggling and ranks 24th in total offense and 19th in scoring offense. The Chiefs have not been very generous to opposing defenses, giving up just over five fantasy points per game, mainly because they want to run the ball and try to control the clock. This limits the Broncos upside a little bit, but being at home, coming off a bye, and with the sack/turnover upside they provide in general, I like Denver as a strong play this week to be used in cash games or GPPs.
Secondary Options
Miami Dolphins ($5000 FD, $3300 DK)
Opponent: San Francisco
Spread: -7.5
Team Total: 19.00
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 7.5 (11th highest)
The Dolphins have actually been a pretty strong defense over the last several weeks, producing 37 fantasy points over the last three weeks. They are middle of the pack in both total defense and scoring defense, while posting slightly above average sack and turnover totals. Their opponent this week, San Francisco, ranks 29th in total offense and 23rd in scoring offense. They are giving up over seven fantasy points per game, which is 11th highest in the NFL. They have not been quite as generous to opposing defense with Kaepernick under center, but I still like Miami here. Vegas seem to agree as the 49ers have one of the lowest team totals of the week. I do think Miami is overpriced on FanDuel but I think they are worth a look in GPPs on DraftKings.
Baltimore Ravens ($4500 FD, $3100 DK)
Opponent: Cincinnati
Spread: -4.5
Team Total: 18.00
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 6.1 (21st highest)
At first glance, this was one of the more surprising team totals as Cincinnati’s project total of 18 this week is the lowest on the board. But the Cincinnati offense is reeling right now with the losses of AJ Green and Giovani Bernard. You could argue they were their two best playmakers on offense, certainly Green was their best. The Ravens defense has also been better than they may appear as they rank second in the NFL in total defense and tied for fifth in scoring defense. They have been even better at home giving up only 14.4 points per game at home this season. The Bengals have not been very generous to opposing defenses, giving up just over six fantasy points per game, but they do allow the fourth most sacks in the NFL, and as mentioned above, this is a different offense than even one week ago. I like Baltimore as a potentially sneaky GPP play this week.
New Orleans Saints ($4300 FD, $2800 DK)
Opponent: Los Angeles
Spread: -7
Team Total: 19.25
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 10.2 (3rd highest)
This is one of those classic cases of bad defense against bad offense, and it also may be the only time the Saints get a mention in this column. I will focus on the bad offense side of things as the Rams rank second to last in total offense and last in scoring offense. They made a change at QB last week to Jared Goff finally, but the offense looked pretty much the same as Goff averaged only 4.3 yards per pass attempt. This will also be the rookie’s first road game. It may be tough to pull the trigger, but I think the Saints make an interesting, cheap GPP option this week.
Other Defense to Target
Tennessee Titans ($4500 FD, $2800 DK)
Opponent: Chicago
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 8.2 (8th highest)
I originally considered the Giants for this spot (and believe they make a good play as well against the Browns), but factoring in price, I am going with the cheaper option of the Titans. The Titans defense has been pretty mediocre this year, but this matchup may be hard to ignore. The Bears looks like they will have to start Matt Barkley this week as Jay Cutler is injured, and this is after they already are with Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller. Matt Barkley has seen action one other time this year and he was predictably awful. He completed 6 of 15 passes with 2 interceptions in that game. In his career, Barkley has thrown 6 interceptions in 65 pass attempts with zero TD passes. I think the Titans make another good GPP play this week.
Turkey Day Special
Pittsburgh Steelers ($4300 FD, $2800 DK)
Opponent: Indianapolis
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 7.20 (13th highest)
Typically I exclude the Thursday game from this article but this week is a little different as we have Thanksgiving football. Everyone loves sitting at home, eating turkey, stuffing, and all the fixings while watching football. With DFS, we have the opportunity to play some nice three game contests tomorrow so I figured I’d add a pick for this slate. The Lions actual would fit the criteria, but due the circumstances around the Colts offense and the cheaper price, I am siding with Pittsburgh. The Colts will be without Andrew Luck this week and will be starting Scott Tolzien. Tolzien has one career touchdown pass while throwing five interceptions. This Steelers defense is also coming off a week where they recorded eight sacks on their way to 22 fantasy points. I have the Steelers as the top option for the Thanksgiving slate.