Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 7
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play, especially in cash games. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I also think you can put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
I wanted to use this space this week to note some small changes/improvements to the article going forward. I will start breaking the defenses that fit the criteria into “Top Plays” and “Secondary Options.” In general, “Top Plays” will be the defenses I like best for cash games as well as GPPs. “Secondary Options” will be the defenses that fit the criteria that I feel are better served as contrarian GPP plays. I think this will help focus my thoughts, especially on weeks where seven or eight teams may fit the criteria.
Also now that we are six weeks into the season, I want to start focusing a little more on fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. I have mentioned it in previous articles, but I will start using it as a main data point to help determine top plays, secondary plays, as well as other defenses to target. I also may use it to exclude a defense that fits the criteria on occasion should the matchup be a poor one. Please feel free to add any comments on the changes and let me know what you like and do not like.
Week 6 2016 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect an average of defensive fantasy points from the start of the 2014 season through Week 6 2016
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 8.82
Other Defenses to Target: 8.29
All Favorites: 8.27
All Home Teams: 7.31
All Teams: 6.92
The defenses that fit the criteria had an overall down week, averaging only 5.86 fantasy points between them. That being said, it was a low scoring week overall and this average was still better than all favorites, all home teams, and all teams for the week. This makes six weeks in a row that this has occurred. The Bills and Titans were the biggest disappointments based on matchup, but the Cardinals came through on Monday night the second highest defensive score of the week.
The other defense to target was a home run this week as the Eagles put up the highest fantasy points for the week with 14 due to a kick return TD and defensive TD. The Eagles will always be a strong GPP play due their attacking style and also strong special teams play.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (At Home, Favored and Opponent Team Total of 21 points or less)
Top Plays:
Denver Broncos ($5000 FD, $3800 DK)
Opponent: Houston at Home
Spread: -8.5
Team Total: 16.00
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 8.83 (7th highest)
The first thing to note here is that this is the Monday night game this week so you will not see the Broncos as an option on the main slate. But if you are playing the Thursday slate, Afternoon slate or late slate, the Broncos are probably the best option this week for cash games (and GPPs). Brock Osweiler has thrown the second most interceptions in the NFL and has thrown at least one in every game so far. The Texans are allowed the seventh most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Broncos defense has recorded at least two sacks and one turnover in every game this season. All of this sets up as a good matchup for an elite defense. If you are paying up at defense on the slates they are available, the Broncos are a great play this week.
Cincinnati Bengals ($5100 FD, $3600 DK)
Opponent: Cleveland at Home
Spread: -11
Team Total: 17.50
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 8.67 (8th highest)
The opponent facing the Browns seems to find their way into this column every week. The Browns have not been an elite team to target but they still are giving up the eighth most fantasy points to opposing defenses. They have allowed the second most sacks in the NFL and are turning the ball over 1-2 times per game. Cincinnati’s defense on the other hand has been far from elite as they are middle of the pack in both total defense and scoring defense. That being said, I think this is a spot for them to improve this week. Cody Kessler is not scaring anyone and the Browns could be without his top target, Terrelle Pryor, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. On the main slate (where the Broncos are not included) I think the Bengals make a strong cash game play.
Secondary Option:
New York Jets ($4400 FD, $2600 DK)
Opponent: Baltimore at Home
Spread: -2
Team Total: 19.25
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 7.33 (11th highest)
UPDATE: This is a Sunday morning update as the Arizona Cardinals used to occupy this spot. But due to line moves, the Cardinals no longer fit the criteria, while the Jets do. I do not have a lot to add about the Jets, but with Joe Flacco banged up, the Jets could make an interesting, cheap GPP play.
Other Defenses to Target
New England Patriots ($4400 FD, $2900 DK)
Opponent: Pittsburgh on Road
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 4.67 (24th highest)
This is a situation where we can throw out the fantasy points allowed statistic as the circumstances have changed for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They had Ben Roethlisberger at QB for the first six weeks but now they are forced to turn to Landry Jones. Landry Jones threw four interceptions last year in just 55 pass attempts. He also showed similar issues this preseason when he threw another four interceptions in 59 pass attempts. I expect the Patriots to jump out to a lead in this one and force the Steelers to throw a lot. This should give them a lot of opportunities to make some big plays on defense. Better yet, it seems the price on the Patriots defense was made with Ben Roethlisberger as the starting QB in mind. They are underpriced on both sites, especially DraftKings, which makes them a great play for both cash games and GPPs.
Baltimore Ravens ($4800 FD, $2800 DK)
Opponent: New York Jets on Road
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 12.5 (highest in NFL)
This is a situation where we definitely are looking at the opponent and the fantasy points allowed statistic. The New York Jets are allowing an NFL high of 12.5 fantasy points to opposing defenses. This is mainly because they lead the league in interceptions with 11 of them already. This is good news for a Ravens defense that is fifth in the NFL in turnovers. They have forced multiple turnovers in four of the last five weeks and I think they should certainly have the opportunity to do that again this week. The price on FanDuel seems a little high and I like the price on DraftKings much better. But the Ravens are in play on both sites as a GPP play due to the matchup.