Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 1st
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greinke | LAD | SDP | 177.2 | 2.63 | 3.67 | 1.12 | 64.3% | 20.6% | 6.4% | 0.66 | 1.49 |
| Kennedy | SDP | LAD | 181.1 | 4.91 | 4.16 | 1.40 | 35.5% | 20.5% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 0.99 |
| Sabathia | NYY | HOU | 211.0 | 4.78 | 3.95 | 1.37 | 28.1% | 19.3% | 7.2% | 1.19 | 1.35 |
| Feldman | HOU | NYY | 181.2 | 3.86 | 4.10 | 1.19 | 43.3% | 17.4% | 7.4% | 0.94 | 1.58 |
| Hutchison | TOR | TBR | |||||||||
| Cobb | TBR | TOR | 143.1 | 2.76 | 3.26 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 23.2% | 7.8% | 0.82 | 2.48 |
| Eovaldi | MIA | COL | 106.1 | 3.39 | 4.43 | 1.32 | 66.7% | 17.3% | 8.9% | 0.59 | 1.28 |
| Anderson | COL | MIA | 44.2 | 6.04 | 3.31 | 1.63 | 40.0% | 23.0% | 10.5% | 1.01 | 2.96 |
| Burnett | PHI | TEX | 191.0 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 1.21 | 50.0% | 26.1% | 8.4% | 0.52 | 2.33 |
| Perez | TEX | PHI | 124.1 | 3.62 | 4.25 | 1.34 | 40.0% | 15.9% | 7.0% | 1.09 | 1.54 |
| Wood | ATL | MIL | 77.2 | 3.13 | 3.38 | 1.33 | 36.4% | 23.6% | 8.3% | 0.35 | 1.80 |
| Lohse | MIL | ATL | 198.2 | 3.35 | 4.23 | 1.17 | 43.8% | 15.5% | 4.5% | 1.18 | 1.05 |
| Cain | SFG | ARI | 184.1 | 4.00 | 3.91 | 1.16 | 56.7% | 20.8% | 7.2% | 1.12 | 0.94 |
| Miley | ARI | SFG | 202.2 | 3.55 | 4.03 | 1.32 | 51.5% | 17.4% | 7.8% | 0.93 | 1.91 |
| Ramirez | SEA | LAA | 72.1 | 4.98 | 4.30 | 1.46 | 30.8% | 17.8% | 8.1% | 1.49 | 1.18 |
| Wilson | LAA | SEA | 212.1 | 3.39 | 4.08 | 1.34 | 45.5% | 20.6% | 9.3% | 0.64 | 1.33 |
| Kluber | CLE | OAK | 147.1 | 3.85 | 3.32 | 1.26 | 29.2% | 22.4% | 5.4% | 0.92 | 1.60 |
| Kazmir | OAK | CLE | 158.0 | 4.04 | 3.45 | 1.32 | 44.8% | 24.1% | 7.0% | 1.08 | 1.13 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Zack Greinke, LAD (at SD) – Greinke had a great season last year and a big part of it was his destruction of the Padres, especially at Petco. He had a 1.44 ERA against them in four starts, three of them in Petco Park. They couldn’t do anything against his fastball. He used it 63% of the time and yielded a mere 493 OPS during the Petco starts. While he is a groundball guy who might not maximize Petco like others with heavier flyball rates, it does allow him to lean on the fastball and live in the zone without worrying as much about mistakes. And thankfully Carlos Quentin is on the DL so Greinke should escape with his shoulders intact.
Alex Cobb, TB (v. TOR) – With only 143.3 IP last season, Cobb might not get his full due at the daily sites which is good news for us. He should be priced among the best starters, but let’s take advantage in spots where that’s not the case. He was on his way to an excellent season before a batted ball to the head cost him two months in the summer. He came back and picked up right where’d left off with a 2.41 ERA in his final 59.7 IP. In fact, dating back to 2012, he has a 2.75 ERA in his last 229 IP. He’s a beast.
Corey Kluber, CLE (at OAK) – Unlike Cobb, Kluber’s numbers don’t jump off the page and yet there’s a lot to be excited about with him. He has excellent stuff, can go deep into games, and misses plenty of bats. A little bit of volatility last year (3 starts of 6+ ER) left him with a 3.85 ERA, but he closed with a 3.55 ERA in his final 21 starts over 125 IP. He didn’t get a crack at Oakland last year.
C.J. Wilson, LAA (v. SEA) – Wilson isn’t great, but I especially like him at sites where you can pick more than one starter. He goes deep into games, misses bats, and he’s quite capable of giving you a gem regularly. He has crushed the Mariners lately with a 2.14 ERA in 75.7 IP over 11 starts (nearly 7 IP per start). They are a bit of a new-look team, particularly with Robinson Cano, but even with Cano’s 971 OPS in 17 PA, the current Mariners have a 499 OPS against Wilson in 121 PA. Small sample size caveats abound, but if he can limit the potential damage from Cano, I like Wilson for a strong effort here.
Erasmo Ramirez, SEA (at LAA) – I’m a big fan of Ramirez and while this is a tough matchup, I still put him in the best buys because of the rock-bottom price. He was a bit up and down in limited time last year, but he handled the Angels twice allowing just two earned (four runs in all) in 12.7 IP. He went 0-1 thanks to zero support, but even a strong six-plus inning no decision would work as a second or third pitcher depending on the site you play.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
CC Sabathia, NYY (at HOU) – I can’t end Sabathia’s career after one down season. That said, I can’t quite give him the Best Buy tag even in a start against Houston. He’s lost the weight, but apparently the velocity has gone with it. He could mow down this lineup with ease and it still wouldn’t give us a great gauge on where we are with him overall. Of course, all we care about is today so you might as well get in while the gettin’ is good.
Matt Cain, SF (at ARI) – You may be soured by Cain’s 2013, but he righted the ship in-season to salvage a 4.00 ERA. He had a 3.03 ERA in his final 110 IP (5.45 in his first 74.3) as he started to limit home runs again. However, I am a touch worried about Arizona’s power potential in their home ballpark. They’ve gotten to him for 5 HR in 30 IP at Chase Field over the last two seasons, though the accompanying 3.60 ERA isn’t too bad. There are just better options available from a price/risk standpoint.
Scott Kazmir, OAK (v. CLE) – Interesting to see a free agent face his former team in his first outing of the season, alas the former Indian draws his old mates right away. Kazmir was a big reason the Indians made the playoffs last year. He had a 3.06 ERA in his final 103 IP last year carried by a devastating slider that yielded a 331 OPS in 55 PA with a 36.4% strikeout rate. The Indians smashed lefties last year to tune of a league-best 766 OPS, though sliders gave them fits as they rated 19th with a 568 OPS. The fastball will be key for Kazmir tonight because that’s what the Indians feasted on last year and he obviously can’t just avoid throwing it.
Nathan Eovaldi, MIA (v. COL) – This is one of my big breakout picks of the year (so is Kluber in case you’re curious) so I’m really excited for him to get going tonight. He has electric stuff with great velocity and a power slider. He doesn’t miss as many bat as stuff like that should, but I’m betting on that figure jumping forward this year. He actually dominated the Rockies in Coors last year throwing six scoreless with four strikeouts. They are thrilled not to face Fernandez again, but it’s not exactly a cakewalk against Eovaldi.
Ian Kennedy, SD (v. LAD) – I’m not sure I’ll trust Kennedy on the road at all this year unless he proves early on that he can be even halfway decent, but at home is a different story – even against a tough lineup like LA’s. He had a 2.55 ERA in his six Petco starts last year (6.95 ERA on the road as a Padre) with 42 Ks in 35.3 IP. He’s a flyball pitcher so the stadium protects him and allows him to trust his stuff in the zone more often. I could see a solid outing, but a win will be tough to come by with Greinke toeing the slab for the Dodgers.
Kyle Lohse, MIL (v. ATL) – I don’t know how excited anyone gets about ever using Lohse whether it’s in season-long fantasy or just for a single day, but he’s a good pitcher, especially when you consider that his price is generally low across the board. It’s just one start, but he did toss a shutout against the Braves last season, allowing just two hits with five strikeouts. Over the final four months of the season, he had a 2.91 ERA in 139 IP going about 6.3 IP-per-outing. This could be a sneaky value play today.
Wade Miley, ARI (v. SF) – Miley wasn’t great in his Australia outing, but the eight strikeouts were nice. I like this solid lefty and he’s always fared well against the Giants with a 3.31 ERA in 32.7 IP over the last two seasons. Although it’s worth noting that all three of his 2013 appearances against them were in SF and Miley had a 4.15 ERA at home in 89 IP. I certainly wouldn’t advocate him as more than a secondary pitcher.
Drew Hutchison, TOR (at TB) – A huge spring earned him not only a rotation spot, but the second spot in the rotation. Of course that speaks more to the rotation issues for the Jays than anything else. The young righty missed all of 2013 with injury, but he had shown some signs of quality in 11 starts back in 2012. I could see a solid outing, but as with Kennedy, I’d be dubious of a win given the stud counterpart he is up against so focus on using him at sites like DraftStreet where wins are only 2 pts.
USE CAUTION:
A.J. Burnett, PHI (at TEX) – I don’t think Burnett will completely fall off the map by moving from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia, but after yesterday’s football score, I can’t confidently recommend him today. In fact, I’m not sure we’ll see another pitcher in the Best or Good Buy sections the rest of the year against Texas, except maybe a superstar in a favorable venue.
Scott Feldman, HOU (v. NYY) – He’s the proverbial “solid-but-unspectacular” which isn’t exactly what you want in a daily situation. The Yankees actually have a pretty solid lineup when healthy, which it currently is so I’m inclined to stay away from it. It could be depleted by injury as the season goes on, but for now it’s one to stay away from when you can.
Alex Wood, ATL (at MIL) – Milwaukee’s righty-centric lineup fared well against lefties last year with the 8th-best OPS at 736. I have my doubts about Wood this season and I really like this Brewer lineup, so I’m staying away.
Martin Perez, TEX (v. PHI) – Again, with the football score, I think we should just stay out of Texas for this series. Perez is better than Scheppers, but there are just better options to mess with today.
Brett Anderson, COL (at MIA) – I need to see something from him before I’ll trust him at all. It used to be that he was good, but unhealthy. Last year, he was neither. I know it’s the Marlins so it’s tempting, but I just don’t have the faith in Anderson that I used to when he was a budding star in Oakland.
Pitcher Stats Against and Advanced Stats
| Pitcher | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greinke | 0.326 | 3.30 | 0.254 | 2.14 | 0.241 | 0.663 | 0.276 | 3.23 | 0.229 | 100.50 | 63.1% |
| Kennedy | 0.360 | 5.23 | 0.329 | 4.69 | 0.268 | 0.724 | 0.295 | 4.59 | 0.254 | 99.65 | 63.5% |
| Sabathia | 0.293 | 4.24 | 0.352 | 4.99 | 0.250 | 0.681 | 0.308 | 4.10 | 0.267 | 104.25 | 65.5% |
| Feldman | 0.299 | 3.94 | 0.297 | 3.73 | 0.241 | 0.680 | 0.258 | 4.03 | 0.229 | 99.77 | 60.9% |
| Hutchison | 0.251 | 0.735 | |||||||||
| Cobb | 0.300 | 3.32 | 0.272 | 1.96 | 0.257 | 0.746 | 0.279 | 3.36 | 0.226 | 100.95 | 64.6% |
| Eovaldi | 0.307 | 3.86 | 0.305 | 3.08 | 0.270 | 0.750 | 0.286 | 3.59 | 0.244 | 94.22 | 63.8% |
| Anderson | 0.394 | 5.91 | 0.341 | 6.09 | 0.233 | 0.658 | 0.359 | 3.85 | 0.285 | 48.00 | 62.1% |
| Burnett | 0.335 | 4.46 | 0.244 | 2.38 | 0.261 | 0.724 | 0.305 | 2.80 | 0.228 | 100.70 | 64.9% |
| Perez | 0.338 | 2.89 | 0.315 | 3.86 | 0.239 | 0.673 | 0.292 | 4.23 | 0.264 | 92.90 | 63.5% |
| Wood | 0.280 | 2.70 | 0.310 | 3.40 | 0.267 | 0.732 | 0.333 | 2.65 | 0.254 | 42.26 | 63.3% |
| Lohse | 0.320 | 3.93 | 0.296 | 2.87 | 0.252 | 0.727 | 0.276 | 4.08 | 0.256 | 94.16 | 66.2% |
| Cain | 0.290 | 3.70 | 0.309 | 4.31 | 0.259 | 0.719 | 0.260 | 3.93 | 0.226 | 97.40 | 64.2% |
| Miley | 0.311 | 4.05 | 0.326 | 3.49 | 0.257 | 0.690 | 0.296 | 3.98 | 0.259 | 98.15 | 62.7% |
| Ramirez | 0.348 | 4.87 | 0.326 | 5.14 | 0.267 | 0.738 | 0.300 | 4.83 | 0.271 | 91.21 | 63.1% |
| Wilson | 0.223 | 2.12 | 0.332 | 3.80 | 0.229 | 0.656 | 0.300 | 3.51 | 0.244 | 110.64 | 62.2% |
| Kluber | 0.331 | 3.96 | 0.309 | 3.80 | 0.252 | 0.736 | 0.329 | 3.30 | 0.268 | 88.08 | 64.9% |
| Kazmir | 0.253 | 3.68 | 0.349 | 4.25 | 0.271 | 0.763 | 0.324 | 3.51 | 0.260 | 94.55 | 66.2% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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