Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 9th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
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Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hand | MIA | WAS | 20.2 | 3.05 | 4.31 | 1.04 | 50.0% | 18.3% | 9.8% | 0.87 | 1.14 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | MIA | 213.1 | 3.25 | 3.67 | 1.09 | 59.4% | 18.6% | 4.6% | 0.80 | 1.52 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | NYY | 171.1 | 3.78 | 4.41 | 1.23 | 39.3% | 16.9% | 7.4% | 1.26 | 0.97 |
| Tanaka | NYY | BAL | |||||||||
| Garza | MIL | PHI | 155.1 | 3.82 | 3.79 | 1.24 | 41.7% | 20.9% | 6.4% | 1.16 | 1.01 |
| Hernandez | PHI | MIL | 151 | 4.89 | 3.66 | 1.34 | 20.8% | 17.6% | 5.9% | 1.43 | 2.18 |
| Harrell | HOU | TOR | 153.2 | 5.86 | 5.19 | 1.71 | 31.8% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 1.17 | 1.88 |
| Morrow | TOR | HOU | 54.1 | 5.63 | 4.39 | 1.50 | 30.0% | 17.4% | 7.4% | 1.99 | 0.87 |
| Wheeler | NYM | ATL | 100 | 3.42 | 4.40 | 1.36 | 47.1% | 19.5% | 10.7% | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| Santana | ATL | NYM | 211 | 3.24 | 3.85 | 1.14 | 56.3% | 18.7% | 5.9% | 1.11 | 1.41 |
| Rodriguez | PIT | CHC | 62.2 | 3.59 | 3.95 | 1.13 | 41.7% | 17.7% | 4.6% | 1.44 | 1.09 |
| Hammel | CHC | PIT | 139.1 | 4.97 | 4.56 | 1.46 | 26.1% | 15.7% | 7.9% | 1.42 | 1.06 |
| Richards | LAA | SEA | 145 | 4.16 | 3.70 | 1.34 | 35.3% | 16.3% | 7.1% | 0.74 | 2.52 |
| Elias | SEA | LAA | |||||||||
| Sanchez | DET | LAD | 182 | 2.57 | 3.10 | 1.15 | 62.1% | 27.1% | 7.2% | 0.45 | 1.39 |
| Beckett | LAD | DET | 43.1 | 5.19 | 3.90 | 1.51 | 12.5% | 21.0% | 7.7% | 1.66 | 1.06 |
| Arroyo | ARI | SFG | 202 | 3.79 | 4.15 | 1.15 | 53.1% | 15.1% | 4.1% | 1.43 | 1.26 |
| Lincecum | SFG | ARI | 197.2 | 4.37 | 3.75 | 1.32 | 37.5% | 23.0% | 9.0% | 0.96 | 1.43 |
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (v. MIA) – Zimm has gotten better each of the last three years against the Marlins peaking with a 1.50 ERA in 24 IP a season ago. He just dominated them with the fastball, yielding a 411 OPS in 61 PA (of 91 total). The slider (498 OPS) and curve (286) were also nearly unhittable. He leaned on the slider much more at 22.4 percent against just 7.7 percent with the curve. The Marlins have a .320 AVG against righty sliders early, but with a .360 SLG, so it’s been a bunch of singles. I’m still betting on JZ.
Masahiro Tanaka, NYY (v. BAL) – Tanaka was brilliant in his MLB debut after a leadoff homer to Melky Cabrera. He went seven strong, allowing just two earned (three in all) with eight strikeouts and zero walks in a tough environment against a strong lineup. The Orioles had a .188 AVG against righty splitters – Tanaka’s best pitch – last year in a league-high 152 PA. Except him to rely on that pitch a lot this evening.
Anibal Sanchez, DET (at LAD) – The Dodgers are a scary lineup to go against, especially with a high-priced arm, but he’s high-priced for a reason. We saw Max Scherzer handle the lineup last night save a Dee Gordon home run (not a typo) and I expect Sanchez to get the job done, too. He was held to four innings because of a rain delay, but that shouldn’t be a concern in LA.
Matt Garza, MIL (at PHI) – Garza didn’t get to face the Phillies last year, but he’s owned them in his career with a 1.30 ERA in 34.7 IP. That’s spread over three different seasons, but he has an ERA of 1.38 or lower in each of those three seasons. I don’t think he gets too much love as a quality arm so you might get the jump on your competitors by using him tonight. When healthy, he’s very good.
Zack Wheeler, NYM (at ATL) – I might drop him to the good buys for sites that give big weight to wins since I could see the Mets struggling to score off Ervin Santana – even if he only throws five innings in his 2014 debut – which could leave him with a no-decision despite strong numbers. He was pretty good against the Braves in three starts last year with a 2.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 17 Ks in 18.7 IP. He gets a scuffling Braves teams tonight, who have baseball’s worst wOBA against righties (.244) with a 24 percent strikeout rate and just .091 ISO.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Jason Hammel, CHC (v. PIT) / Wandy Rodriguez, PIT (at CHC) – These two had a strong battle back on April 3rd with Hammel emerging victorious. Both fanned five, but Hammel put on just three runners to Wandy’s six. A Mike Olt homer sunk Rodriguez, while Hammel allowed just one run in his 6.7 innings. I think we could see a similar matchup today. The Cubs are 22nd in wOBA (.260) against lefties with virtually no pop (.052 ISO… basically Olt’s homer is it!) while the Pirates are 14th in wOBA (.315) against righties, but still hitting just .247 with a .115 ISO. I’d comfortably use either arm today, though figuring out who might emerge victorious will be a challenge and could come down to the bullpens.
Brandon Morrow, TOR (v. HOU) – My trust level for Morrow is low. Very low, in fact, but the matchup is ripe for a strong effort. Of course, that fact isn’t lost on anyone at this point so I’m sure he’ll be heavily-used. The Astros were awful against righty sliders last year and they’ve been even worse early on this year. If Morrow can stay out of trouble with his fastball, he should have a strong night.
USE CAUTION:
Ervin Santana, ATL (v. NYM) – This is more about how long he’ll be allowed to go as opposed to skills. I’m excited to see what Santana can do in the NL, but tonight could be a managed start where he only gets five or so innings. His price is still strong at most outlets after last year’s big effort so let’s sit on the sidelines here.
Tim Lincecum, SF (v. ARI) – I don’t put much weight at all into batter v. pitcher, but the one that seems to hold up brilliantly is Lincecum v. Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy owns him and it’s helped the D’Backs own him the last few years as a club. The strikeouts are always enticing, but I’m not rushing to roster Lincecum tonight.
Garrett Richards, LAA (at SEA) – At least early on, the Mariners aren’t the patsy they were last year. Richards came out of his debut relatively unscathed against Houston despite five walks and three hits in his five innings, but I think the Mariners would make him pay more for such wildness. Be careful.
Bronson Arroyo, ARI (at SF) – The Giants are tied for the MLB lead in home runs so far with 12 and Arroyo is extremely homer-prone. The venue works in his favor a bit, but I’m still not touching him here.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Miguel Gonzalez, BAL (at NYY) – A homer-prone starter in Yankee Stadium is bad news. He has a 1.5 HR/9 there.
Josh Beckett, LAD (v. DET) – His first start off the DL is not a great matchup. I just don’t see any upside.
Brad Hand, MIA (at WAS) – I like Hand a bit in the long-term, but a spot-start here against a solid Washington lineup isn’t the most appealing opportunity to use him.
Roenis Elias, SEA (v. LAA) – One strong start doesn’t completely change my tune on Elias, but if he puts a second big outing together here, I might have to start considering him more.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
Roberto Hernandez, PHI (v. MIL)
Lucas Harrell, HOU (at TOR)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hand | 0.235 | 1.29 | 0.260 | 3.95 | 0.239 | 0.671 | 0.193 | 4.02 | 0.176 | 42.86 | 60.0% |
| Zimmermann | 0.308 | 3.33 | 0.266 | 3.22 | 0.230 | 0.608 | 0.271 | 3.36 | 0.235 | 96.34 | 68.4% |
| Gonzalez | 0.307 | 3.40 | 0.321 | 4.10 | 0.241 | 0.680 | 0.260 | 4.45 | 0.239 | 90.43 | 64.5% |
| Tanaka | 0.259 | 0.748 | |||||||||
| Garza | 0.324 | 3.98 | 0.305 | 3.70 | 0.252 | 0.690 | 0.290 | 3.88 | 0.248 | 101.04 | 64.8% |
| Hernandez | 0.399 | 6.19 | 0.298 | 3.70 | 0.247 | 0.691 | 0.308 | 4.63 | 0.277 | 74.81 | 64.9% |
| Harrell | 0.347 | 5.80 | 0.400 | 6.01 | 0.257 | 0.746 | 0.306 | 5.42 | 0.284 | 79.44 | 57.3% |
| Morrow | 0.428 | 6.83 | 0.311 | 4.32 | 0.235 | 0.666 | 0.302 | 5.42 | 0.283 | 91.00 | 62.9% |
| Wheeler | 0.346 | 4.40 | 0.284 | 2.72 | 0.252 | 0.727 | 0.279 | 4.17 | 0.236 | 101.65 | 61.1% |
| Santana | 0.301 | 2.90 | 0.291 | 3.76 | 0.236 | 0.667 | 0.267 | 3.93 | 0.237 | 99.97 | 65.0% |
| Rodriguez | 0.345 | 4.50 | 0.299 | 3.35 | 0.232 | 0.687 | 0.255 | 4.42 | 0.238 | 85.50 | 63.8% |
| Hammel | 0.383 | 6.12 | 0.314 | 3.58 | 0.241 | 0.693 | 0.304 | 4.93 | 0.279 | 88.54 | 62.6% |
| Richards | 0.337 | 4.28 | 0.279 | 4.22 | 0.241 | 0.712 | 0.301 | 3.66 | 0.263 | 50.02 | 62.3% |
| Elias | 0.258 | 0.750 | |||||||||
| Sanchez | 0.302 | 3.52 | 0.244 | 1.56 | 0.268 | 0.724 | 0.307 | 2.39 | 0.226 | 102.55 | 64.3% |
| Beckett | 0.402 | 7.71 | 0.339 | 3.38 | 0.290 | 0.786 | 0.323 | 4.66 | 0.279 | 92.38 | 63.2% |
| Arroyo | 0.368 | 4.72 | 0.269 | 2.95 | 0.262 | 0.703 | 0.267 | 4.49 | 0.254 | 89.78 | 67.2% |
| Lincecum | 0.304 | 4.23 | 0.334 | 4.53 | 0.259 | 0.719 | 0.300 | 3.74 | 0.243 | 102.53 | 61.7% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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