Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 12th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 12th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richards | LAA | 85.2 | 4.20 | 3.53 | 1.25 | 28.6% | 16.9% | 6.7% | 0.63 | 2.47 | |
| Kuroda | NYY | 146.2 | 2.45 | 3.79 | 1.05 | 60.9% | 17.7% | 4.8% | 0.74 | 1.51 | |
| Hamels | PHI | 156.0 | 3.81 | 3.70 | 1.22 | 58.3% | 21.1% | 6.2% | 0.92 | 1.11 | |
| Teheran | ATL | 137.0 | 2.96 | 3.61 | 1.18 | 54.5% | 21.3% | 5.3% | 1.05 | 1.05 | |
| Latos | CIN | 146.0 | 3.21 | 3.54 | 1.27 | 56.5% | 23.4% | 7.4% | 0.68 | 1.30 | |
| Wood | CHC | 145.0 | 3.04 | 4.50 | 1.13 | 65.2% | 17.7% | 8.5% | 0.68 | 0.82 | |
| Koehler | MIA | 92.0 | 4.40 | 4.17 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 17.5% | 8.4% | 0.88 | 1.61 | |
| Davis | KCR | 109.2 | 5.42 | 4.25 | 1.74 | 28.6% | 19.5% | 9.3% | 1.15 | 1.17 | |
| Salazar | CLE | 13.2 | 3.29 | 2.22 | 0.80 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 3.9% | 1.32 | 0.77 | |
| Albers | MIN | 8.1 | 0.00 | 4.28 | 0.60 | 100.0% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 0.00 | 2.13 | |
| Fister | DET | 149.0 | 3.50 | 3.31 | 1.19 | 56.5% | 18.4% | 4.2% | 0.66 | 2.36 | |
| Sale | CWS | 149.1 | 2.77 | 2.95 | 1.06 | 61.9% | 26.6% | 5.8% | 0.78 | 1.49 | |
| Volquez | SDP | 132.1 | 5.44 | 4.39 | 1.58 | 41.7% | 18.2% | 10.4% | 0.82 | 1.66 | |
| Chacin | COL | 142.0 | 3.36 | 4.34 | 1.22 | 54.5% | 14.6% | 6.6% | 0.25 | 1.61 | |
| Feldman | BAL | 127.1 | 4.10 | 4.07 | 1.19 | 47.6% | 16.9% | 6.6% | 0.92 | 1.55 | |
| Miley | ARI | 141.2 | 3.56 | 4.05 | 1.33 | 47.8% | 17.9% | 8.3% | 1.08 | 1.85 | |
| Mejia | NYM | 18.1 | 1.96 | 2.50 | 1.09 | 33.0% | 24.3% | 4.1% | 0.98 | 2.91 | |
| Nolasco | LAD | 145.1 | 3.65 | 3.86 | 1.25 | 37.5% | 19.2% | 5.9% | 0.93 | 1.23 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Mat Latos, CIN (at CHC) – Latos hasn’t exactly decimated the lowly Cubs, but he’s done just fine with a 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 14 Ks in 18 IP of work. The Cubs are just below league average offense against righties with a .307 wOBA on the season (.312 is average) and they aren’t any better now with the same .307 since the All-Star break. In fact their strikeout rate has actually jumped from 18% to 22% in that time.
Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (v. LAA) – The Angels are actually quite good against righties (6th in wOBA), but Kuroda is excellent regardless of opponent. He’s done most of his work (14 of 23 starts) against teams with a .500 or better record and he’s posted a 2.83 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 3.9 K/BB ratio in 86 IP. He’s even better at home with a 1.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 3.7 K/BB ratio. Sign me up even against Trout & Co.
Danny Salazar, CLE (at MIN) – Salazar has been brilliant in a pair of outings against some tough teams (TOR, DET). He gets his most favorable matchup thus far with a below average Twins squad. Since the All-Star break they are right on the tail of the Astros with a 25.9% strikeout rate against righties (26.1% for HOU). That bodes quite well for the rookie with 17 strikeouts in his first two starts totaling 13.7 IP.
Wade Miley, ARI (v. BAL) – Miley remains in the midst of an excellent run with his last two starts likely being the best of the bunch as he’s handled baseball’s best team in wOBA against lefties (at the time he faced them) twice posting 13.3 IP of 0.68 ERA against the Tampa Bay Rays in July 31st and August 6th starts. The O’s have a potent lineup, but they don’t do nearly as well against lefties with a .300 wOBA that ranks just 19th and sit a touch below the .306 league average.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Cole Hamels, PHI (at ATL) / Julio Teheran, ATL (v. PHI) – A battle of the titans here despite what Hamels’s season long numbers might suggest. Over his last seven he has a 2.16 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 50 IP of work along with a 5.4 K/BB ratio. Teheran, meanwhile, has a 2.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his last seven spanning 41.7 IP with 40 Ks and 3.1 K/BB ratio. Hamels was ripped by the Braves in his season opener (5 IP/5 ER) while Teheran hasn’t faced the Phillies yet as the two clubs have only played six of 19. I might lean Hamels at the outlets where he’s cheaper. Take the savings and pray for a 2-1 win, but at those where Teheran is cheaper you have to back him because of the better offensive support.
Doug Fister, DET (at CWS) – These two teams are playing each other seemingly weekly lately but that’s because they didn’t play at all before the All-Star break so they need to smash 18 games into the final two-plus months. Fister and Sale haven’t squared off yet, but each has faced the other’s team. Fister dropped eight innings of one-run ball on the Sox back on August 2nd scattered seven hits with two strikeouts and no walks en route to the win. He’s usually good for more Ks as evidenced by his 18% rate and the 5-5-6-8 in his four starts surrounding the one against the Sox.
Garrett Richards, LAA (at NYY) – If Richards had more than his three starts of quality work, I might have him in the top tier, but let’s ease in here. He has a 2.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 18 IP over three starts since rejoining the rotation on July 27th facing three above average teams: TEX, TOR, and OAK. The Yankees are far worse than all three so I really like Richards here, especially at a bargain bin price. The only downside is that Kuroda will be sharing the mound with him and it should shape up into a pitcher’s duel where runs will be scant.
Chris Sale, CWS (v. DET) – While the Tigers generally crush lefties, Sale isn’t some run-of-the-mill lefty. He faced them heading to and coming out of the All-Star break put up a strong 3.07 ERA effort in 14.7 IP, though he did survive some damage with a 1.50 WHIP. The 19 strikeouts definitely help keep his scores high even when he does allow a bevy of base hits. After giving up 3 HRs in 10 starts heading into the pair against Detroit, he ended up allowing three to them in the two outings. He certainly doesn’t rate as highly as he would against a lesser team, but he’s not a total stay-away.
Travis Wood, CHC (v. CIN) – Wood has a dud and two gems against the Reds yielding a 4.26 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 19 IP of work. The dud was a 5.7 IP/5 ER outing in late May, but the two gems saw him give up two earned in 6.3 and 7 IP, respectively. He bounced back from his bomb against the Dodgers (3.3 IP/5 ER) on August 2nd with a 6.3 IP/2 ER gem in Philly. The Reds are a bit overrated offensively, but they are essentially just league average against righties.
Ricky Nolasco, LAD (v. NYM) – Nolasco hasn’t gone more than six innings in his last five outings, but he isn’t exactly getting destroyed. He still has a 3.46 ERA in that span (26 IP), but the 1.54 WHIP is definitely far too high. The Mets offer him a great opportunity to finally break the six inning hurdle for the first time in five starts and only the third time in 11 starts. After a great July (4.7 R/G), the Mets have scored just 2.8 R/G the last two weeks.
Jenrry Mejia, NYM (at LAD) – Mejia has impressed in his first three starts this year, but he gets far and away his toughest competition yet in the Dodgers. They are up to 12th overall in wOBA against righties for the season at .317 and they are dominating since the All-Star break with an MLB-best .351 mark. With a strikeout-per-inning, Mejia should be able to mitigate some of his downside with some punchouts, but I still think the slate is too rich to mess around with him in this matchup.
Wade Davis, KC (at MIA) – Davis actually has a pair of decent outings in his last two allowing just two runs in 12.3 IP with nine strikeouts and three walks against the White Sox and Mets, both on the road. And the best way to stay hot is to face the Marlins. Even with getting healthy (Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Morrison) and adding some intriguing prospects (namely Christian Yelich), they are still dreadful offensively. In fact, their .245 wOBA against righties since the break is actually worse than their .270 mark on the season as a whole.
USE CAUTION:
Scott Feldman, BAL (at ARI) – Feldman was never supposed to be a game-changer for the O’s, rather someone who could stabilize the backend of their rotation. He’s done just that with three good and three poor starts since joining the club. He gets a D’Backs club that has really surged against righties with a .345 wOBA against them since the All-Star break helping push them up to 12th overall with a .310 on the season. Feldman’s just not special.
Tom Koehler, MIA (at KC) – Despite a pair of bum outings within his last seven, Koehler still has a 3.46 ERA in 39 IP. Perhaps more impressive is the 26 Ks in 23 IP over his last four outings. He’s fanned 7, 6, 5, and 8, though full disclosure necessitates that I point out that two of the outings were against the Pirates. He could be a sneaky secondary play, but the Royals are absolutely on fire with a .337 wOBA against righties since the break (5th) and their 14.6% strikeout rate has helped push them into a tie with the Tigers as the hardest team for righties to fan in all of baseball.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Jhoulys Chacin, COL (v. SD) – The Padres are far from special, but neither is Chacin when he’s at home. He goes from the 1.87 ERA-1.13 WHIP-2.8 K/BB ratio guy in 57.7 IP on the road to a 4.27-1.27-1.8 in 84.3 IP at home.
Andrew Albers, MIN (v. CLE) – The Indians smoke lefties and this is just Albers’s second start ever. He’s a 27-year old journeyman as opposed to some up-and-coming prospect. Pass here.
Edinson Volquez, SD (at COL) – The Rockies have absolutely obliterated Volquez this year, both home and away. He has a 12.18 ERA against them in four starts including a 14.04 in two starts at Coors Field.
ADVANCED METRICS: August 12th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Richards | 0.303 | 3.74 | 0.297 | 5.08 | 0.240 | 0.675 | 0.286 | 3.41 | 0.247 | 37.95 | 62.4% | ||
| Kuroda | 0.302 | 2.69 | 0.250 | 2.26 | 0.274 | 0.767 | 0.261 | 3.34 | 0.229 | 98.74 | 63.7% | ||
| Hamels | 0.306 | 4.66 | 0.327 | 3.61 | 0.248 | 0.715 | 0.299 | 3.55 | 0.250 | 103.04 | 66.9% | ||
| Teheran | 0.343 | 4.15 | 0.284 | 1.96 | 0.257 | 0.706 | 0.294 | 3.70 | 0.248 | 95.86 | 67.2% | ||
| Latos | 0.340 | 3.29 | 0.287 | 3.20 | 0.244 | 0.708 | 0.308 | 3.05 | 0.243 | 100.48 | 65.8% | ||
| Wood | 0.249 | 2.60 | 0.285 | 3.21 | 0.248 | 0.714 | 0.244 | 3.67 | 0.212 | 97.78 | 63.9% | ||
| Koehler | 0.324 | 5.57 | 0.324 | 3.54 | 0.260 | 0.698 | 0.292 | 4.00 | 0.254 | 73.70 | 61.8% | ||
| Davis | 0.416 | 6.83 | 0.338 | 4.05 | 0.232 | 0.614 | 0.377 | 4.27 | 0.314 | 97.19 | 62.6% | ||
| Salazar | 0.161 | 2.25 | 0.348 | 4.76 | 0.238 | 0.694 | 0.233 | 2.90 | 0.184 | 96.00 | 71.4% | ||
| Albers | 0.194 | 0.00 | 0.113 | 0.00 | 0.270 | 0.768 | 0.154 | 2.93 | 0.143 | 109.00 | 61.5% | ||
| Fister | 0.284 | 3.78 | 0.339 | 3.17 | 0.250 | 0.685 | 0.311 | 3.30 | 0.263 | 103.70 | 64.8% | ||
| Sale | 0.187 | 1.93 | 0.302 | 3.02 | 0.272 | 0.787 | 0.285 | 2.93 | 0.220 | 108.57 | 66.6% | ||
| Volquez | 0.359 | 5.80 | 0.342 | 5.12 | 0.265 | 0.751 | 0.327 | 4.03 | 0.275 | 97.13 | 60.6% | ||
| Chacin | 0.327 | 3.92 | 0.271 | 2.83 | 0.240 | 0.669 | 0.292 | 3.08 | 0.251 | 94.27 | 64.8% | ||
| Feldman | 0.304 | 4.00 | 0.309 | 4.12 | 0.255 | 0.714 | 0.268 | 3.93 | 0.238 | 100.05 | 60.7% | ||
| Miley | 0.344 | 4.25 | 0.326 | 3.42 | 0.245 | 0.694 | 0.292 | 4.21 | 0.257 | 97.61 | 62.9% | ||
| Mejia | 0.353 | 2.57 | 0.282 | 1.64 | 0.269 | 0.726 | 0.294 | 2.99 | 0.239 | 96.33 | 66.1% | ||
| Nolasco | 0.338 | 4.28 | 0.293 | 3.03 | 0.235 | 0.678 | 0.299 | 3.63 | 0.256 | 98.67 | 62.3% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 12th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window