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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 13th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-08-13 18:16:16

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: August 13th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Bumgarner SFG 154.0 2.75 3.40 0.98 69.6% 24.7% 7.4% 0.70 1.27
Gonzalez WAS 140.2 3.52 3.66 1.24 65.2% 24.4% 9.3% 0.90 1.30
Vargas LAA 91.1 3.65 4.52 1.36 50.0% 15.9% 7.7% 0.89 1.10
Sabathia NYY 160.0 4.73 3.76 1.32 33.3% 19.5% 5.6% 1.41 1.30
Dempster BOS 133.0 4.67 4.22 1.48 34.8% 21.2% 10.3% 1.49 1.03
Redmond TOR 32.0 4.22 3.40 1.16 20.0% 25.7% 7.4% 1.69 0.63
Ramirez SEA 24.0 7.13 4.10 1.50 0.0% 19.6% 7.5% 1.88 0.83
Archer TBR 76.1 2.71 4.52 1.10 53.8% 16.9% 9.4% 0.83 1.34
Martin PHI 9.1 6.75 4.89 1.93 0.0% 21.3% 12.8% 2.89 0.44
Medlen ATL 138.0 3.85 3.94 1.33 39.1% 18.1% 6.0% 1.04 1.41
Estrada MIL 74.1 4.96 3.66 1.28 30.8% 21.6% 5.7% 1.70 0.92
Ogando TEX 74.0 3.28 4.85 1.31 28.6% 16.3% 9.9% 0.85 0.83
Bailey CIN 149.2 3.73 3.16 1.16 52.2% 24.2% 5.4% 0.72 1.46
Samardzija CHC 153.1 4.23 3.59 1.35 45.8% 24.1% 9.0% 0.94 1.53
McAllister CLE 85.1 3.90 4.55 1.39 46.7% 16.7% 8.3% 0.74 0.94
Deduno MIN 88.0 3.38 4.20 1.34 57.1% 13.5% 8.9% 0.51 2.98
Scherzer DET 158.1 2.84 2.83 0.90 65.2% 28.9% 5.8% 0.80 0.93
Santiago CWS 112.2 3.43 3.91 1.28 50.0% 24.1% 10.6% 1.12 0.76
Fernandez MIA 132.2 2.58 3.30 1.04 54.5% 27.0% 8.9% 0.54 1.43
Chen KCR 65.1 1.79 4.32 1.06 100.0% 17.8% 6.4% 0.83 0.55
Morton PIT 55.2 3.88 3.03 1.29 20.0% 17.9% 5.0% 0.81 3.73
Wainwright STL 175.2 2.66 2.94 1.05 54.2% 22.6% 3.1% 0.41 1.92
Stults SDP 151.2 3.50 4.27 1.20 54.2% 15.4% 4.8% 0.59 1.05
Manship COL 5.0 3.60 4.85 1.40 0.0% 19.1% 14.3% 0.00 2.00
Gonzalez BAL 122.0 3.91 4.30 1.28 40.0% 18.0% 7.7% 1.25 0.93
Delgado ARI 64.2 3.48 3.86 1.30 40.0% 18.0% 4.5% 1.39 1.18
Lyles HOU 100.0 5.40 4.16 1.53 33.3% 15.3% 7.0% 0.81 1.98
Colon OAK 150.1 2.75 4.42 1.16 65.2% 13.3% 4.0% 0.66 1.14
Harvey NYM 159.2 2.09 2.59 0.86 65.2% 29.3% 4.8% 0.39 1.42
Ryu LAD 141.1 2.99 3.72 1.25 59.1% 20.3% 7.2% 0.70 1.65

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

BEST BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.

Max Scherzer, DET (at CWS) – Even when he isn’t at his best, Scherzer still piles up strikeouts and quite often also nets a win. Plus, the White Sox are terrible.

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Matt Harvey, NYM (at LAD) – I’m well aware of how great the Dodgers have been lately, but I can’t completely run from Harvey just because of that. He’s been absolutely unreal this year. Even with the tough matchup, he has to take the second spot. He and Scherzer are usual 1-2 in some fashion as the two most expensive guys, but the certainty and peace of mind they offer for that price is enough to keep them very highly rated even on a full slate day with several good options.

Homer Bailey, CIN (at CHC) – There is too much up and down from Bailey especially when you see his immense talent, but it’s hard not to love him against the inept Cubs offense. He has a pair of 8 K outings against them this year with a 1.29 ERA in 14 IP. He will be a popular choice.

Jose Fernandez, MIA (at KC) – I understand how hot the Royals are right now (.341 wOBA, good for 4th since the ASB), but Fernandez has been just as hot with a 1.88 ERA in his last seven outings which includes a 0.90 WHIP and 59 Ks in 48 IP of work. He’s amazing.

Adam Wainwright, STL (v. PIT) – He wasn’t awesome in his first outing against Pittsburgh this year (back on July 31st) and he has allowed 50 hits in his last 50 innings, but I still don’t see the Pirates as a threat offensively. Even in a weak outing Waino went 7 IP/4 ER with 6 Ks so it’s not like he killed you despite the hefty investment. There are multiple stud options today and he may not be the best, but Waino is definitely among them.

Bruce Chen, KC (v. MIA) – We might actually get a pitcher’s duel in KC as Chen has been rolling lately and we know how horrid the Marlins are on offense. Since joining the rotation Chen has a 1.14 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in five starts going six innings in all of them with a 5.8 K/BB ratio. He is still dirt-cheap, too. He is the best buy from a bargain standpoint today, though I slotted him sixth because his overall talent doesn’t compare to the other five studs.

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Bartolo Colon, OAK (v. HOU) – On the heels of his worst start of the year, Colon gets a shot at the Astros against whom he put up his season-high strikeout total of nine back on May 26th. He has a 1.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against them in three outings this year, but just 14 Ks in 19 IP so just five additional strikeouts in the other two outings. Even with a modest strikeout total, he’s still a great option today.

GOOD BUYS:

This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.

Madison Bumgarner, SF (at WAS) / Gio Gonzalez, WAS (v. SF) – Is anyone hotter than MadBum lately? He has a 1.77 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 26% K rate, and 3.4 K/BB ratio in his last 10 starts while going at least seven innings in every one of them. And he gets baseball’s second-worst team against lefties by wOBA (.280). Gonzalez bounced back from the Detroit destruction (3.3 IP/10 ER), but even including that outing gives him a 3.20 ERA over his last 12 starts. Pull it out and he has a 2.10 in his last 11. The Giants aren’t much better than the Nats against lefties with a .288 wOBA including an MLB-worst .226 against them since the All-Star break.

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Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (v. NYM) – Honestly the only real downside for Ryu today is that he has to face Harvey. The Mets have completely fallen off the table offensively after a big July while Ryu is surging with a 2.55 ERA since the All-Star break including 25 Ks in 24.7 IP. His strikeout rate had dropped badly since April, but he’s on the way back up with 9, 6, and 7 in his last three. I would bump him down for sites that count losses as a negative because there is a strong chance he is saddled with one even in a strong effort.

Jason Vargas, LAA (at NYY) – A few things keeping Vargas from the top tier are the fact that he’s just not available at all outlets today, he’s returning from a two-month DL stint, and with that he may be limited to around five innings as they work him back up to full strength. After a tough April with a pair of 5 ER outings that led to a 4.85 ERA, Vargas posted a 3.06 ERA in 61.7 IP. The Yankees are terrible offensively, particularly against lefties with a .288 wOBA (27th).

Marco Estrada, MIL (at TEX) – Estrada was excellent in his return from the DL with five one-hit IP against the Giants. Now he gets a Rangers team that has been mostly average of late especially when you factor in the loss of Nelson Cruz. Yes, they got Alex Rios to replace him, but that’s still a net-loss. With his tune up out of the way, I kind of like Estrada as a cheaper option capable of putting together six or seven strong innings.

Hector Santiago, CWS (v. DET) – The Tigers rake lefties, but Santiago has held his own against them in a pair of starts yielding a 3.46 ERA in 13 IP with 13 Ks. Unfortunately he has two losses and he’s unlikely to net a win so if you’re outlet of choice penalizes losses, you have to downgrade him a good bit especially since there is still big risk of an implosion. If losses don’t hurt, he’s a cheap secondary option with strikeout upside.

zach-mcallister-300x200

Zach McAllister, CLE (at MIN) – We’ve only seen one worthwhile outing from McAllister since his return from the DL and that came against the White Sox. Otherwise it’s three sub-six innings outings yielding an 8.50 ERA. The last 22 Twins runs have come off of the home run which was a big Achilles heel of McAllister a year ago (1.4 HR/9), and though seems to have quelled that problem this year, I’m still a little concerned given his penchant to pepper the zone. Be careful here. He’s a secondary option at best.

USE CAUTION:

Chris Archer, TB (v. SEA) – Archer returns after leaving his last outing with forearm tightness and does so against baseball’s hottest offense which adds up to a pass for me. The Mariners are tied with the Dodgers and Red Sox for the highest wOBA against righties since the All-Star break at .347. This feels like an easy pass.

Alexi Ogando, TEX (v. MIL) – He hasn’t topped six innings in any of his last five starts and just twice since May. That’s the only thing bringing in the caution right now, otherwise, the Brewers offer a chance for his best start in quite some time. They are 23rd in wOBA against righties (.302) on the season which includes plenty of Ryan Braun, but since the All-Star break they have been even worse at just .285.

Kris Medlen, ATL (v. PHI) – I’ve been on the anti-Medlen train for a while now because of the massive amount of hits he allows start-in and start-out. Despite a three-hit outing in seven innings against the Nats his last time out, I’m still on that train. Plus he has a 6.61 ERA against the Phillies in three starts this year.

Sam Deduno, MIN (v. CLE) – He ran into the buzzsaw Royals (5.7 IP/4 ER), but he’d been great up to that point despite modest skills mixing in some decent K outings or low-walk outings, but all told it’s a poor 1.5 K/BB ratio. The Indians are much better against lefties, but still above average against righties on the whole, though they’ve struggled mightily of late with a .273 wOBA that ranks 28th. The end result is the same as always with Deduno, he’s a low-dollar secondary option at best.

CC Sabathia, NYY (v. LAA) – I really don’t know what to make of CC these days. He’s just been so thoroughly unspectacular this year that I have trouble trusting him especially since his prices aren’t entirely on par with his poor production. The Angels are just league average against lefties so maybe that’ll help bring good CC out today.

erasmo-ramirez-300x200

Erasmo Ramirez, SEA (at TB) – We still haven’t seen the best of Ramirez, he’s yet to post a gem in his four starts, but the 21 Ks in 24 IP are appealing. His stuff has been getting sharper and while the Rays aren’t overly threatening, I still think we’re a start or two from trusting Ramirez.

Miguel Gonzalez, BAL (at ARI) / Randall Delgado, ARI (v. BAL) – Both guys have more than a modicum of talent, but they are facing a pair of solid-to-good offenses in a hitter’s haven making this a game to avoid. Gonzalez has been too home run prone this year making him an even worse bet than Delgado, but the Orioles are better than the D’Backs which lowers Delgado’s value. I actually like both guys overall, but on a full slate, there are far better options all over the place.

Jeff Samardzija, CHC (v. CIN) – He has a 6.75 ERA with a 1.78 WHIP in his last seven starts including two 9 ER outings. Yet that stretch also somehow includes a 7.3 IP/1 ER outing in Coors Field so good luck figuring him out right now. He has two good starts against the Reds from earlier this year (both were 6 IP/1 ER), but his most recent was 6 IP/5 ER dud on June 13th. With the likelihood of a loss even in a good outing, there is just no upside to taking the Shark today.

NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:

Charlie Morton, PIT (at STL) – The Cards got to him the most of any team this year laying a 6 IP/5 ER outing on him back on August 1st. They amassed 10 hits, too, and he’s allowed at least six in each of his last six. No evident upside here.

Ryan Dempster, BOS (at TOR) – Despite a solid start in TOR (6 IP/1 ER) back in May, Dempster has another pair of starts against them in BOS yielding a 6.99 ERA. The Jays are raking lately, both home and road, but that park is a hitter’s haven, too.

Jordan Lyles, HOU (at OAK) – The wheels have come off here.

Ethan Martin, PHI (at ATL) – He hasn’t shown anything special in his two starts and the Braves are red-hot.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.

ADVANCED METRICS: August 13th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Bumgarner 0.218 2.68 0.271 2.81 0.220 0.643 0.238 3.09 0.190 105.13 63.6%
Gonzalez 0.207 1.95 0.333 4.11 0.253 0.665 0.279 3.51 0.223 104.35 62.1%
Vargas 0.321 1.95 0.333 4.45 0.240 0.657 0.294 3.99 0.261 101.50 63.1%
Sabathia 0.305 4.26 0.353 4.90 0.241 0.704 0.308 4.20 0.271 103.42 66.8%
Dempster 0.327 4.56 0.383 4.84 0.255 0.755 0.301 4.78 0.259 102.30 62.0%
Redmond 0.305 4.24 0.322 4.20 0.286 0.821 0.259 4.61 0.221 70.63 62.5%
Ramirez 0.346 6.32 0.391 8.64 0.251 0.735 0.319 5.13 0.286 87.00 60.9%
Archer 0.333 3.80 0.210 1.16 0.252 0.739 0.223 4.21 0.201 92.92 62.3%
Martin 0.519 6.75 0.301 6.75 0.257 0.751 0.321 7.01 0.293 94.00 59.6%
Medlen 0.332 4.11 0.343 3.68 0.257 0.706 0.307 3.92 0.267 96.30 65.5%
Estrada 0.296 3.72 0.368 6.16 0.263 0.745 0.296 4.47 0.261 93.62 64.5%
Ogando 0.265 2.12 0.389 5.33 0.249 0.703 0.269 4.36 0.238 92.36 62.6%
Bailey 0.334 3.94 0.254 3.58 0.244 0.708 0.312 2.87 0.246 102.00 67.4%
Samardzija 0.353 4.66 0.316 4.01 0.251 0.727 0.316 3.61 0.250 104.96 62.8%
McAllister 0.357 4.63 0.309 3.08 0.238 0.694 0.301 3.86 0.260 99.20 63.7%
Deduno 3.00 3.93 0.249 0.722 0.288 3.91 0.255 100.07 61.2%
Scherzer 0.268 3.04 0.215 2.62 0.250 0.685 0.248 2.69 0.190 105.39 66.4%
Santiago 0.334 3.06 0.313 3.65 0.272 0.787 0.272 4.23 0.221 73.37 62.0%
Fernandez 0.274 3.13 0.236 2.04 0.260 0.698 0.254 2.83 0.190 91.68 66.3%
Chen 0.358 3.15 0.232 1.22 0.229 0.645 0.241 3.72 0.213 45.79 65.9%
Morton 0.386 6.75 0.301 2.34 0.284 0.764 0.324 3.86 0.275 83.40 63.9%
Wainwright 0.279 3.02 0.276 2.30 0.242 0.694 0.311 2.31 0.246 104.50 67.5%
Stults 0.232 3.29 0.326 3.53 0.258 0.700 0.290 3.26 0.255 98.13 65.4%
Manship 0.324 4.50 0.229 3.00 0.240 0.669 0.286 3.25 0.222 91.00 58.2%
Gonzalez 0.320 3.47 0.327 4.30 0.255 0.714 0.279 4.38 0.250 97.10 64.3%
Delgado 0.370 3.34 0.326 3.60 0.275 0.785 0.316 4.18 0.283 91.00 66.2%
Lyles 0.362 6.10 0.371 4.72 0.247 0.717 0.332 4.08 0.291 95.33 61.1%
Colon 0.310 2.88 0.266 2.66 0.233 0.669 0.287 3.41 0.261 93.52 68.2%
Harvey 0.206 1.87 0.254 2.34 0.269 0.726 0.258 1.99 0.188 104.96 66.6%
Ryu 0.353 3.93 0.285 2.70 0.242 0.687 0.299 3.28 0.248 103.86 64.2%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 13th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.