Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 16th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
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Performance and Talent Statistics: August 16th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greinke | LAD | 117.2 | 3.21 | 3.90 | 1.23 | 52.6% | 19.1% | 6.8% | 0.76 | 1.47 | |
| Lee | PHI | 155.2 | 3.18 | 3.18 | 1.06 | 50.0% | 23.4% | 4.2% | 0.93 | 1.29 | |
| Nicasio | COL | 114.1 | 5.04 | 4.41 | 1.41 | 22.7% | 16.5% | 8.3% | 1.02 | 1.39 | |
| Chen | BAL | 88.1 | 3.06 | 4.61 | 1.15 | 35.7% | 15.0% | 6.2% | 0.61 | 0.80 | |
| McCarthy | ARI | 78.0 | 4.73 | 4.20 | 1.41 | 30.8% | 14.2% | 4.1% | 0.92 | 1.44 | |
| Cole | PIT | 66.0 | 3.95 | 3.78 | 1.14 | 36.4% | 17.7% | 5.7% | 0.82 | 1.81 | |
| Shields | KCR | 167.2 | 3.33 | 4.00 | 1.28 | 60.0% | 19.5% | 7.4% | 0.97 | 1.26 | |
| Alvarez | DET | 19.2 | 5.03 | 4.05 | 1.42 | 25.0% | 19.5% | 8.1% | 2.29 | 1.29 | |
| Pettitte | NYY | 124.2 | 4.62 | 4.17 | 1.46 | 33.3% | 15.8% | 6.0% | 0.94 | 1.50 | |
| Doubront | BOS | 128.0 | 3.66 | 4.07 | 1.41 | 42.9% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 0.56 | 1.50 | |
| Dickey | TOR | 161.1 | 4.46 | 4.36 | 1.29 | 44.0% | 17.7% | 8.0% | 1.45 | 1.01 | |
| Hernandez | TBR | 131.0 | 4.95 | 3.65 | 1.33 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 5.2% | 1.37 | 2.13 | |
| Gaudin | SFG | 93.0 | 2.42 | 3.92 | 1.14 | 54.5% | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.48 | 0.99 | |
| Eovaldi | MIA | 60.2 | 2.82 | 4.74 | 1.15 | 70.0% | 16.8% | 10.7% | 0.59 | 1.24 | |
| Jordan | WAS | 45.2 | 4.14 | 3.79 | 1.31 | 25.0% | 13.4% | 4.1% | 0.59 | 2.32 | |
| Wood | ATL | 45.1 | 2.78 | 2.83 | 1.06 | 40.0% | 26.7% | 7.8% | 0.20 | 2.30 | |
| Iwakuma | SEA | 164.0 | 2.96 | 3.39 | 0.99 | 56.0% | 21.3% | 4.3% | 1.21 | 1.35 | |
| Holland | TEX | 161.0 | 3.07 | 3.61 | 1.25 | 54.2% | 22.6% | 6.9% | 0.67 | 1.14 | |
| Leake | CIN | 147.2 | 2.86 | 4.28 | 1.21 | 60.9% | 14.8% | 6.1% | 0.91 | 1.51 | |
| Gorzelanny | MIL | 71.2 | 2.51 | 3.50 | 1.07 | 42.9% | 23.8% | 9.1% | 0.88 | 1.31 | |
| Quintana | CWS | 143.1 | 3.70 | 4.01 | 1.25 | 33.3% | 19.2% | 7.0% | 1.00 | 1.14 | |
| Correia | MIN | 133.1 | 4.59 | 4.48 | 1.45 | 39.1% | 13.4% | 5.6% | 1.28 | 1.34 | |
| Peacock | HOU | 42.0 | 6.43 | 4.68 | 1.52 | 14.3% | 20.0% | 12.1% | 2.36 | 0.65 | |
| Williams | LAA | 120.2 | 4.85 | 4.53 | 1.38 | 41.2% | 14.3% | 7.7% | 1.42 | 1.36 | |
| Masterson | CLE | 168.0 | 3.59 | 3.32 | 1.20 | 56.0% | 24.5% | 9.2% | 0.64 | 2.44 | |
| Griffin | OAK | 153.0 | 3.88 | 4.20 | 1.13 | 33.3% | 19.0% | 6.0% | 1.65 | 0.64 | |
| Niese | NYM | 83.0 | 4.45 | 4.52 | 1.59 | 46.7% | 14.4% | 9.0% | 0.65 | 1.97 | |
| Kennedy | SDP | 137.2 | 4.97 | 4.28 | 1.37 | 34.8% | 19.5% | 9.0% | 1.24 | 0.93 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Felix Doubront, BOS (v. NYY) – Despite a subpar outing his last time out (4 IP/3 ER v. KC), Doubront still hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a single outing since early-May. Prior to that he’d had a run of nine starts yielding a 2.02 ERA in 58 IP including a 6.3 IP/1 ER outing against the Yankees on July 19th.
Chad Gaudin, SF (at MIA) – Gaudin bounced back from his ugly 3.7 IP/6 ER outing on July 24th with a trio of excellent outings showing he’s no fluke. Facing Philly, Milwaukee, and Baltimore he had a 0.98 ERA in 18.3 IP with 19 Ks. Of course the Marlins are quite a bit worse than all three of those clubs and he’s still got a great price at a few sites, too.
Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (v. COL) – The Rockies are scoring a pathetic 1.7 R/G in their seven road games so far this month as they’ve been completely inept on the road since May 1st and now have to deal with Carlos Gonzalez-less existence. Chen, meanwhile, has six quality starts since coming off of the DL back on July 10th. He has six outings of exactly 3 ER, too, or else his Gem Percentage would be higher than its current 36% mark.
Alex Wood, ATL (v. WAS) – Wood has looked great in his last three, not only posting a 1.89 ERA but also logging 17 Ks in his 19 IP of work. The Nats are baseball’s second-worst team against lefties and while they have been a little better in August, they are still posting a sub-.300 wOBA. This is a great matchup for Wood.
Ian Kennedy, SD (v. NYM) – Kennedy’s been great in his pair of starts as a Padre including a trip to Cincy. I loved this trade for him because his skills are perfect for Petco. Throw in a modest hitting Mets team and you’ve got yourself a strong bargain option.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (at TEX) / Derek Holland, TEX (v. SEA) – Two really good guys facing two really hot offenses, BUT both offenses are facing the handedness that they are weakest against right now. Each is about average against the handedness they are facing while mashing the other side so despite the hotness of each offense, we could still see a pitcher’s duel here.
Nathan Eovaldi, MIA (v. SF) – Eovaldi had one of his best starts against the Giants back on June 23rd going 6 IP/2 ER with 7 Ks, his second-highest total bested only in his last outing when he fanned eight Braves. He threw seven one-hit innings against the Braves just six days ago, but took a no-decision in the 1-0 Marlins win. Since his disaster outing in Milwaukee (4 IP/6 ER), Eovaldi has a 1.04 ERA in 26 IP over his last four starts. Wins are always going to be tough to come by though as evidenced by the fact that he’s 0-1 in those four starts.
Zack Greinke, LAD (at PHI) / Cliff Lee, PHI (v. LAD) – I don’t place Greinke on the same level as Lee, but he’s definitely facing the easier of the two offenses putting these two neck-and-neck. In his last seven, Greinke has a 1.66 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 48.7 IP. His only loss was a 7 IP/4 ER outing against Cincinnati, but he’s allowed two or fewer in the other six including three scoreless outings. Lee not only has to face the Dodgers, but he’s been a bit rocky of late giving up at last three earned in his last six including a run of 4, 4, and 5 in July. The neck injury cost him some time, too. On the plus side, he has a 40/8 K/BB in those six starts spanning 37.3. In short, I still trust him, but admittedly I don’t love him against LA.
R.A. Dickey, TOR (at TB) – Dickey has a 0.75 ERA in three starts in Tampa Bay the last two years, two of which came this year during his disaster season. The Rays should’ve traded for him and just started him at home only.
A.J. Griffin, OAK (v. CLE) – The Indians have been baseball’s worst team against righties this month with a .252 wOBA. Additionally, Griffin fares better at home with a 3.63 ERA in 74.3 IP compared to a 4.12 in 78.7 IP on the road.
Mike Leake, CIN (at MIL) – Leake had one of his best outings of the year against the Brewers going 8.3 IP/2 ER back on July 10th notching his eighth win of the season. He hit a season low-point two starts ago vs. the Cardinals, but that’s somewhat excusable given the opponent. The Brewers don’t offer much competition, but the trick here is that Leake has to square off against a lefty which have left the Reds in fits lately. A win won’t be easy.
Justin Masterson, CLE (at OAK) – Masterson is coming off of two of his worst starts of the season allowing 9 ER in just 11.3 IP of work against the Tigers and Angels. The A’s are hitting better than both this month and they can stack up to eight lefties – his kryptonite – into the lineup.
Tom Gorzelanny, MIL (v. CIN) – Gorzy has had a few rough starts, but as a starter he’s been great with a 2.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 35 IP. The Reds haven’t been able to do anything against lefties this month with a league-worst .184 wOBA, though in just a small sample of nine games. Though even going back to July 1st they have just a .280 wOBA.
Jerome Williams, LAA (v. HOU) – The Astros are one of the few teams Williams has done well against with a 2.03 ERA in two starts (13.3 IP). He’s been mostly bad this year, but obviously anyone facing the Astros is appealing.
Brandon McCarthy, ARI (at PIT) / Gerrit Cole, PIT (v. ARI) – McCarthy has looked solid in two starts since returning from the DL, much better than the guy we saw in April and May. The Pirates still don’t hit so you can still pick on them, but they do keep piling up wins as their run prevention remains excellent making it tough to bank on opposing pitchers for the all-important win points. Cole has had a pair modest outings his last two times out and he’s just 1-5 in his last seven with a 4.10 ERA in 41.7 IP. The D’Backs aren’t hitting much better than the Pirates lately so we should have a low-scoring affair on our hands.
Kevin Correia, MIN (v. CWS) – He’s gotten progressively better in three outings against the White Sox going 7 IP/4 ER in May, 6.7 IP/2 ER in June, and 7 IP/0 ER just five days ago. Meanwhile…
Jose Alvarez, DET (v. KC) – After an incredible debut (6 IP/1 ER w/7 Ks), Alvarez had three subpar outings yielding a 6.59 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 13.7 IP. However, he’s been excellent in Triple-A with a 2.79 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with an 8.1 K/9 and 4.5 K/BB ratio in 125.7 IP. For as good as the Royals have been playing lately, they still don’t hit lefties with a .283 wOBA in August and a .297 for the season.
Jon Niese, NYM (at SD) – Niese wasn’t too bad in his return from the DL with a 6 IP/4 ER outing in Arizona on the 11th, but the Padres actually aren’t too bad against lefties. They are sixth in wOBA against lefties both on the season and in August. I still don’t mind this setup for Niese given his talent and the venue.
USE CAUTION:
James Shields, KC (at DET) – Shields has elite-level talent and he’s shown against even the best of teams including a 7 IP/2 ER outing against Detroit in June, but he also has random duds at times like a 6 IP/7 ER outing against Minnesota two starts ago. With a full slate, I just don’t see the upside of investing in Shields.
Jose Quintana, CWS (at MIN) – …Quintana has just one outing against the Twins going 5 IP/5 ER against Correia five days ago which is actually his worst start since his season debut back on April 5th.
Brad Peacock, HOU (at LAA) – He’s been sharp in his last two going 7 IP/3 ER with 10 Ks against Minnesota and then 6 IP/1 ER with 5 Ks against Texas. Of course he’s 0-1 in those two starts. I don’t love him here as the Angels can get it going from time-to-time and his bullpen is support is absolutely horrible in terms of getting him a win.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Andy Pettitte, NYY (at BOS) – If he didn’t have the name and big career track record, you wouldn’t even consider him. He’s given up eight or more hits in six of his last seven outings.
Taylor Jordan, WAS (at ATL) – Six of his eight starts have been entirely unspectacular.
Roberto Hernandez, TB (v. TOR) – He’s just too inconsistent to trust. He has three outings of five or fewer in his last four with the other one being a complete game against the Diamondbacks.
Juan Nicasio, COL (at BAL) – Nicasio is one of the rare Rockies pitchers who is actually quite a bit worse away from Coors Field with a 6.03 ERA in 59.7 IP.
ADVANCED METRICS: August 16th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Greinke | 0.369 | 4.15 | 0.255 | 2.52 | 0.257 | 0.706 | 0.295 | 3.56 | 0.249 | 100.16 | 61.4% | ||
| Lee | 0.295 | 3.20 | 0.287 | 3.18 | 0.261 | 0.720 | 0.287 | 3.07 | 0.236 | 103.77 | 70.9% | ||
| Nicasio | 0.331 | 5.60 | 0.344 | 4.62 | 0.275 | 0.785 | 0.292 | 4.25 | 0.259 | 93.18 | 62.4% | ||
| Chen | 0.275 | 2.84 | 0.299 | 3.18 | 0.258 | 0.700 | 0.272 | 3.50 | 0.242 | 95.64 | 65.9% | ||
| McCarthy | 0.336 | 4.33 | 0.353 | 5.24 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.331 | 3.80 | 0.298 | 93.46 | 68.2% | ||
| Cole | 0.313 | 4.55 | 0.265 | 3.65 | 0.255 | 0.714 | 0.278 | 3.61 | 0.243 | 87.45 | 64.7% | ||
| Shields | 0.290 | 3.15 | 0.335 | 3.60 | 0.282 | 0.781 | 0.296 | 3.85 | 0.253 | 108.24 | 62.2% | ||
| Alvarez | 0.389 | 3.60 | 0.386 | 5.52 | 0.257 | 0.677 | 0.286 | 5.99 | 0.269 | 89.50 | 58.9% | ||
| Pettitte | 0.255 | 3.09 | 0.374 | 5.26 | 0.249 | 0.712 | 0.329 | 3.89 | 0.290 | 94.33 | 65.3% | ||
| Doubront | 0.321 | 2.53 | 0.324 | 3.97 | 0.240 | 0.657 | 0.315 | 3.44 | 0.253 | 100.64 | 61.2% | ||
| Dickey | 0.350 | 4.84 | 0.309 | 4.14 | 0.251 | 0.735 | 0.266 | 4.81 | 0.245 | 103.48 | 64.4% | ||
| Hernandez | 0.392 | 6.49 | 0.283 | 3.32 | 0.255 | 0.755 | 0.312 | 4.45 | 0.280 | 93.68 | 65.2% | ||
| Gaudin | 0.332 | 2.87 | 0.222 | 2.18 | 0.232 | 0.614 | 0.256 | 3.18 | 0.205 | 49.97 | 62.6% | ||
| Eovaldi | 0.243 | 2.39 | 0.303 | 3.18 | 0.262 | 0.700 | 0.231 | 3.83 | 0.202 | 92.40 | 63.5% | ||
| Jordan | 0.352 | 5.75 | 0.321 | 2.84 | 0.257 | 0.751 | 0.318 | 3.48 | 0.284 | 84.88 | 66.4% | ||
| Wood | 0.229 | 1.98 | 0.271 | 3.23 | 0.220 | 0.643 | 0.282 | 2.13 | 0.205 | 37.20 | 63.7% | ||
| Iwakuma | 0.272 | 2.62 | 0.304 | 3.51 | 0.263 | 0.745 | 0.247 | 3.65 | 0.218 | 92.48 | 68.1% | ||
| Holland | 0.292 | 3.11 | 0.314 | 3.10 | 0.232 | 0.670 | 0.314 | 3.01 | 0.251 | 103.71 | 65.9% | ||
| Leake | 0.311 | 2.52 | 0.303 | 3.14 | 0.249 | 0.703 | 0.272 | 3.99 | 0.248 | 95.26 | 63.7% | ||
| Gorzelanny | 0.273 | 1.82 | 0.275 | 2.89 | 0.248 | 0.714 | 0.240 | 3.58 | 0.198 | 27.79 | 63.0% | ||
| Quintana | 0.339 | 3.20 | 0.303 | 3.93 | 0.247 | 0.697 | 0.283 | 3.81 | 0.245 | 102.33 | 62.2% | ||
| Correia | 0.379 | 5.61 | 0.337 | 3.79 | 0.250 | 0.685 | 0.319 | 4.50 | 0.298 | 92.26 | 62.6% | ||
| Peacock | 0.464 | 9.15 | 0.297 | 3.86 | 0.274 | 0.767 | 0.261 | 6.49 | 0.250 | 72.55 | 59.1% | ||
| Williams | 0.364 | 5.71 | 0.338 | 4.07 | 0.233 | 0.669 | 0.283 | 4.93 | 0.268 | 66.61 | 63.1% | ||
| Masterson | 0.321 | 4.15 | 0.242 | 2.88 | 0.247 | 0.717 | 0.287 | 3.34 | 0.221 | 104.52 | 63.3% | ||
| Griffin | 0.299 | 3.94 | 0.317 | 3.86 | 0.249 | 0.722 | 0.241 | 4.63 | 0.228 | 101.25 | 65.1% | ||
| Niese | 4.84 | 4.33 | 0.256 | 0.741 | 0.329 | 3.98 | 4.290 | 94.33 | 62.8% | ||||
| Kennedy | 0.361 | 5.40 | 0.321 | 4.60 | 0.235 | 0.678 | 0.289 | 4.53 | 0.251 | 100.91 | 63.3% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 16th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window