Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 3rd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darvish | TEX | CLE | 133.1 | 2.90 | 2.85 | 1.22 | 55.6% | 30.2% | 7.8% | 0.88 | 0.83 |
| Bauer | CLE | TEX | 89 | 4.25 | 3.85 | 1.43 | 38.5% | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.11 | 0.74 |
| De La Rosa | COL | DET | 122 | 4.20 | 4.12 | 1.28 | 40.0% | 18.0% | 9.1% | 0.96 | 1.70 |
| Sanchez | DET | COL | 113.1 | 3.57 | 3.83 | 1.10 | 41.2% | 18.9% | 6.3% | 0.32 | 1.29 |
| Leake | CIN | MIA | 147.2 | 3.53 | 3.35 | 1.24 | 45.0% | 18.4% | 4.7% | 0.91 | 2.15 |
| Turner | MIA | CIN | 74.1 | 5.69 | 3.92 | 1.57 | 22.2% | 15.7% | 6.3% | 0.97 | 1.76 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | NYM | 145 | 3.41 | 3.18 | 1.23 | 47.6% | 23.8% | 6.0% | 0.74 | 1.49 |
| Colon | NYM | SFG | 141.2 | 3.88 | 3.74 | 1.16 | 42.1% | 18.1% | 3.4% | 0.89 | 1.01 |
| Hamels | PHI | WAS | 130.1 | 2.55 | 3.18 | 1.13 | 58.8% | 25.3% | 7.4% | 0.55 | 1.54 |
| Strasburg | WAS | PHI | 144.1 | 3.55 | 2.70 | 1.24 | 52.4% | 27.7% | 5.3% | 0.87 | 1.52 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | BAL | 117.2 | 3.06 | 2.99 | 0.99 | 60.0% | 20.7% | 2.0% | 0.92 | 1.68 |
| Tillman | BAL | SEA | 136 | 3.97 | 4.71 | 1.35 | 42.9% | 15.0% | 8.8% | 0.93 | 1.04 |
| Weaver | LAA | TBR | 144.1 | 3.62 | 4.14 | 1.16 | 52.4% | 19.2% | 7.1% | 1.12 | 0.70 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | LAA | 113.2 | 3.80 | 3.37 | 1.28 | 36.8% | 26.6% | 8.7% | 0.95 | 0.75 |
| Gibson | MIN | CWS | 114.1 | 3.94 | 4.25 | 1.23 | 52.6% | 12.8% | 6.7% | 0.55 | 1.97 |
| Quintana | CWS | MIN | 137.1 | 3.15 | 3.56 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 21.3% | 7.1% | 0.39 | 1.56 |
| Stroman | TOR | HOU | 74.1 | 3.03 | 3.25 | 1.10 | 66.7% | 22.3% | 5.7% | 0.61 | 1.51 |
| Feldman | HOU | TOR | 108.2 | 4.39 | 4.72 | 1.42 | 47.1% | 13.0% | 7.3% | 0.91 | 1.22 |
| Garza | MIL | STL | 139.2 | 3.74 | 4.22 | 1.17 | 35.0% | 17.3% | 7.4% | 0.64 | 1.15 |
| Lackey | STL | MIL | 137.1 | 3.60 | 3.52 | 1.23 | 57.9% | 20.3% | 5.6% | 0.98 | 1.48 |
| Shields | KCR | OAK | 149.1 | 3.50 | 3.59 | 1.29 | 42.9% | 19.7% | 5.2% | 0.96 | 1.36 |
| Kazmir | OAK | KCR | 129.1 | 2.37 | 3.35 | 1.02 | 63.2% | 22.7% | 5.9% | 0.77 | 1.27 |
| Jackson | CHC | LAD | 119.2 | 5.79 | 4.14 | 1.59 | 15.0% | 20.3% | 10.0% | 1.05 | 1.24 |
| Beckett | LAD | CHC | 111.2 | 2.74 | 3.68 | 1.13 | 52.9% | 22.2% | 7.9% | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| Harang | ATL | SDP | 136.1 | 3.43 | 4.25 | 1.39 | 75.0% | 18.4% | 8.6% | 0.59 | 1.05 |
| Ross | SDP | ATL | 148.2 | 2.60 | 3.12 | 1.18 | 66.7% | 24.6% | 8.5% | 0.61 | 2.57 |
| Liriano | PIT | ARI | 95.1 | 3.97 | 3.68 | 1.37 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 11.5% | 0.94 | 1.82 |
| Cahill | ARI | PIT | 56.1 | 5.59 | 3.85 | 1.65 | 20.0% | 20.7% | 10.6% | 0.80 | 1.83 |
| Phelps | NYY | BOS | 106.1 | 3.89 | 4.02 | 1.34 | 42.9% | 19.3% | 8.2% | 1.02 | 1.17 |
| Buchholz | BOS | NYY | 96.2 | 5.87 | 4.32 | 1.56 | 33.3% | 16.0% | 7.6% | 1.21 | 1.30 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Yu Darvish TEX (at CLE) – Darvish has really righted the ship since the All-Star break going 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 18 innings pitched. There was an amount of concern about him going into the break but at this point we can safely assume he has worked through that issue. He sits with a 10-6 record and 2.90 ERA on the season striking out 167 batters in 133 1/3 innings pitched.
Madison Bumgarner SFG (at NYM) – Price considered he is one of my favorite pitchers on the board tonight. There are a couple things working in his favor here today. First the Mets are just awful vLHP and strikeout at the second highest rate in the league behind only the Cubs. Second he will be pitching in spacious Citi Field which favors the pitchers pretty heavy.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (v. PHI) – Strasburg is in a very similar situation to what we saw from Jordan Zimmermann yesterday. He had a great start at home versus Philly back in June going 7 innings and striking out 11 while only allowing 2 earned runs. His home/road splits are something to take note of since it is such a drastic difference. He is 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA and 102 Ks in 79 innings pitched at home.
Cole Hamels PHI (at WAS) – Hamels has been lights out since the All-Star break going 3-0 with a .78 ERA and 27 strikeouts in just 23 innings pitched. He missed a couple starts in the beginning of April and struggled the first few games but has seen his stats normalize to Hamels level since. He offers high K upside and the ability to pitch deep into the game while holding the opponent to a low run total.
Tyson Ross SDP (v. ATL) – Ross was brilliant in July going 4-2 with a 1.10 ERA striking out 48 batters in 41 innings pitched and holding the opposition to a .194 average. He has picked up the win in each of his 3 starts since the break and when pitching at home you have to give him a solid look. This is a classic example of a player not being a household name getting ignored by the masses while posting some really great numbers.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at BAL) – Most of us remember his great home splits last season but he has not lost a road game since July 4th 2013 going 9-0 during the streak. He had a really solid July with a 4-1 record and 2.32 ERA with a higher K rate than he typically posts. This is another guy that most DFS players know but your neighbor has no clue who he is.
Scott Kazmir OAK (v. KCR) – Kazmir has been fantastic on the season and continued with a strong July with a 3-0 record and 1.38 ERA in 4 starts. He is holding opponents to a .215 average on the season and owns a 1.02 WHIP and a good enough K rate to put him in play just about any time he takes the mound. You know it is a pitcher heavy day when he seems like an after thought.
Francisco Liriano PIT (at ARI) – I don’t know if there is a better example of a player turning it around in July than Liriano. He was really struggling on the season but has put 3 really solid outings together to finish the month strong. He went 2-0 with a .95 ERA while striking out 23 batters in 19 innings pitched. When Liriano has it he can pitch with anyone in the league as evident by his season last year.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Bartolo Colon NYM (v. SFG) – While not overly dominant on the season he has pitched well enough to be considered as a value facing the Giants who have had issues with the bats lately. deGrom pitched a no hitter late into the game last night and Colon has the ability to hold them down today. From strictly a numbers standpoint nothing really jumps out at you but he is one of the better value arms available.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Edwin Jackson CHC (at LAD)
- Trevor Cahill ARI (v. PIT)
- Jorge De La Rosa COL (at DET)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darvish | 0.321 | 3.68 | 0.260 | 1.71 | 0.261 | 0.747 | 0.323 | 2.91 | 0.234 | 104.90 | 30.2% |
| Bauer | 0.336 | 4.54 | 0.344 | 4.01 | 0.254 | 0.683 | 0.331 | 3.97 | 0.272 | 102.00 | 22.0% |
| De La Rosa | 0.215 | 2.53 | 0.352 | 4.80 | 0.284 | 0.785 | 0.270 | 4.32 | 0.236 | 95.09 | 18.0% |
| Sanchez | 0.252 | 2.61 | 0.301 | 5.08 | 0.281 | 0.777 | 0.273 | 2.90 | 0.224 | 98.58 | 18.9% |
| Leake | 0.373 | 4.57 | 0.277 | 2.80 | 0.249 | 0.693 | 0.306 | 3.68 | 0.264 | 98.77 | 18.4% |
| Turner | 0.339 | 5.01 | 0.381 | 6.21 | 0.241 | 0.673 | 0.353 | 4.02 | 0.311 | 62.42 | 15.7% |
| Bumgarner | 0.267 | 2.36 | 0.314 | 3.74 | 0.253 | 0.688 | 0.319 | 3.04 | 0.252 | 100.70 | 23.8% |
| Colon | 0.288 | 3.82 | 0.311 | 3.94 | 0.241 | 0.674 | 0.295 | 3.41 | 0.257 | 100.29 | 18.1% |
| Hamels | 0.266 | 2.10 | 0.286 | 2.67 | 0.276 | 0.738 | 0.293 | 2.90 | 0.224 | 106.26 | 25.3% |
| Strasburg | 0.289 | 2.85 | 0.323 | 4.06 | 0.241 | 0.662 | 0.345 | 2.83 | 0.26 | 99.39 | 27.7% |
| Iwakuma | 0.302 | 3.53 | 0.236 | 2.59 | 0.258 | 0.724 | 0.283 | 3.09 | 0.243 | 93.65 | 20.7% |
| Tillman | 0.316 | 3.53 | 0.317 | 4.50 | 0.241 | 0.681 | 0.272 | 4.40 | 0.246 | 99.17 | 15.0% |
| Weaver | 0.320 | 3.84 | 0.256 | 3.25 | 0.250 | 0.699 | 0.258 | 4.15 | 0.229 | 96.78 | 19.2% |
| Odorizzi | 0.315 | 4.12 | 0.287 | 3.40 | 0.258 | 0.727 | 0.307 | 3.40 | 0.236 | 98.14 | 26.6% |
| Gibson | 0.320 | 3.69 | 0.257 | 4.22 | 0.255 | 0.727 | 0.273 | 3.73 | 0.247 | 88.90 | 12.8% |
| Quintana | 0.282 | 4.42 | 0.285 | 2.68 | 0.250 | 0.693 | 0.307 | 2.83 | 0.244 | 105.91 | 21.3% |
| Stroman | 0.274 | 2.66 | 0.282 | 3.56 | 0.226 | 0.669 | 0.286 | 2.97 | 0.23 | 76.81 | 22.3% |
| Feldman | 0.338 | 3.12 | 0.346 | 5.56 | 0.271 | 0.781 | 0.300 | 4.55 | 0.275 | 98.74 | 13.0% |
| Garza | 0.287 | 3.59 | 0.282 | 3.86 | 0.249 | 0.676 | 0.261 | 3.58 | 0.226 | 97.91 | 17.3% |
| Lackey | 0.304 | 3.59 | 0.317 | 3.63 | 0.257 | 0.725 | 0.298 | 3.56 | 0.254 | 102.00 | 20.3% |
| Shields | 0.336 | 3.36 | 0.322 | 3.63 | 0.258 | 0.741 | 0.317 | 3.69 | 0.269 | 107.87 | 19.7% |
| Kazmir | 0.276 | 2.20 | 0.264 | 2.41 | 0.253 | 0.675 | 0.260 | 3.23 | 0.214 | 94.81 | 22.7% |
| Jackson | 0.401 | 6.28 | 0.338 | 5.40 | 0.269 | 0.749 | 0.348 | 4.25 | 0.288 | 95.23 | 20.3% |
| Beckett | 0.351 | 3.72 | 0.253 | 1.77 | 0.230 | 0.659 | 0.249 | 4.29 | 0.217 | 95.53 | 22.2% |
| Harang | 0.344 | 2.97 | 0.295 | 3.81 | 0.224 | 0.628 | 0.313 | 3.54 | 0.262 | 103.41 | 18.4% |
| Ross | 0.268 | 2.81 | 0.296 | 2.39 | 0.241 | 0.666 | 0.286 | 3.12 | 0.222 | 101.43 | 24.6% |
| Liriano | 0.358 | 4.58 | 0.299 | 3.81 | 0.264 | 0.716 | 0.291 | 3.92 | 0.227 | 91.78 | 25.0% |
| Cahill | 0.414 | 9.27 | 0.299 | 3.18 | 0.259 | 0.737 | 0.359 | 3.90 | 0.289 | 46.18 | 20.7% |
| Phelps | 0.308 | 3.84 | 0.346 | 3.97 | 0.245 | 0.690 | 0.295 | 4.19 | 0.252 | 71.40 | 19.3% |
| Buchholz | 0.368 | 4.76 | 0.350 | 7.43 | 0.246 | 0.689 | 0.333 | 4.64 | 0.296 | 95.59 | 16.0% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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