Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 6th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 6th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvarez | MIA | 38.0 | 2.61 | 4.56 | 1.18 | 66.7% | 11.2% | 6.6% | 0.00 | 2.24 | |
| Locke | PIT | 125.2 | 2.36 | 4.42 | 1.22 | 52.4% | 18.3% | 11.3% | 0.50 | 1.90 | |
| Teheran | ATL | 131.0 | 3.02 | 3.56 | 1.18 | 52.4% | 21.5% | 5.2% | 1.03 | 1.06 | |
| Gonzalez | WAS | 133.2 | 3.57 | 3.65 | 1.25 | 63.6% | 24.7% | 9.6% | 0.94 | 1.34 | |
| Jackson | CHC | 122.0 | 4.65 | 3.77 | 1.35 | 28.6% | 19.1% | 7.6% | 0.66 | 2.05 | |
| Kendrick | PHI | 138.1 | 4.29 | 4.30 | 1.32 | 54.5% | 13.7% | 5.7% | 0.85 | 1.64 | |
| Verlander | DET | 143.2 | 3.88 | 3.90 | 1.41 | 43.5% | 22.3% | 9.0% | 0.75 | 1.16 | |
| Masterson | CLE | 156.2 | 3.33 | 3.29 | 1.16 | 60.9% | 25.0% | 9.1% | 0.63 | 2.27 | |
| Chatwood | COL | 85.2 | 3.15 | 3.82 | 1.39 | 60.0% | 16.6% | 7.7% | 0.42 | 2.78 | |
| Mejia | NYM | 13.0 | 2.08 | 2.34 | 1.08 | 50.0% | 21.2% | 1.9% | 0.69 | 3.57 | |
| Straily | OAK | 96.0 | 4.41 | 4.16 | 1.20 | 47.1% | 19.1% | 7.4% | 0.94 | 0.88 | |
| Latos | CIN | 138.2 | 3.38 | 3.44 | 1.28 | 54.5% | 24.0% | 7.3% | 0.71 | 1.34 | |
| Kuroda | NYY | 139.2 | 2.38 | 3.80 | 1.03 | 63.6% | 17.9% | 4.9% | 0.77 | 1.46 | |
| Sale | CWS | 142.0 | 2.92 | 2.87 | 1.05 | 60.0% | 27.0% | 5.4% | 0.82 | 1.50 | |
| Wright | BOS | 12.1 | 3.65 | 4.76 | 1.46 | First Start | 17.3% | 13.5% | 0.00 | 1.08 | |
| Lyles | HOU | 95.1 | 4.91 | 4.17 | 1.48 | 35.3% | 14.8% | 6.7% | 0.76 | 1.98 | |
| Albers | MIN | MLB Debut | |||||||||
| Shields | KCR | 154.2 | 3.08 | 3.91 | 1.25 | 65.2% | 20.0% | 7.3% | 0.87 | 1.30 | |
| Kershaw | LAD | 168.1 | 1.87 | 3.11 | 0.86 | 69.6% | 25.1% | 5.5% | 0.48 | 1.34 | |
| Kelly | STL | 61.0 | 3.10 | 4.10 | 1.36 | 40.0% | 17.2% | 8.4% | 1.03 | 1.50 | |
| Hellickson | TBR | 133.0 | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.23 | 40.9% | 19.5% | 6.1% | 1.15 | 1.07 | |
| Miley | ARI | 134.2 | 3.68 | 4.08 | 1.34 | 45.5% | 17.8% | 8.3% | 1.07 | 1.80 | |
| Darvish | TEX | 138.2 | 2.66 | 2.65 | 1.02 | 52.4% | 33.4% | 8.4% | 1.04 | 1.19 | |
| Richards | LAA | 79.2 | 4.18 | 3.62 | 1.26 | 33.3% | 16.6% | 6.8% | 0.68 | 2.35 | |
| Johnson | TOR | 76.1 | 6.60 | 3.75 | 1.68 | 26.7% | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.77 | 1.42 | |
| Hernandez | SEA | 160.2 | 2.30 | 2.75 | 1.06 | 73.9% | 26.3% | 4.6% | 0.62 | 1.81 | |
| Norris | BAL | 132.0 | 3.89 | 4.41 | 1.39 | 45.5% | 17.4% | 8.0% | 0.89 | 0.98 | |
| Volquez | SDP | 126.1 | 5.56 | 4.43 | 1.59 | 39.1% | 18.0% | 10.5% | 0.78 | 1.66 | |
| Peralta | MIL | 130.0 | 4.57 | 4.44 | 1.46 | 34.8% | 14.6% | 9.0% | 0.90 | 2.13 | |
| Cain | SFG | 132.0 | 4.57 | 3.86 | 1.17 | 50.0% | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.09 | 0.92 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
James Shields, KC (v. MIN) – He’s been solid against MIN in two starts (2-0, 3.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP in 12.3 IP), but not exactly dominant. Although he is gaining steam of late with a 2.53 ERA in his last five outings. The Royals offense exploded on Monday for 13 runs and they get a shot at a rookie making his MLB debut.
Felix Hernandez, SEA (v. TOR) – Wow, Tuesday is an ace-fest! The Jays fall a level offensively when on the road going from a .342 wOBA to .318 and they are also facing one of the best pitchers in baseball which can’t help matters.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD (at STL) – Sure he’s facing one of the toughest offenses in the league, but he’s baseball’s best pitcher. I wouldn’t exactly be rushing to invest the premium price with the Cardinals on tap, but there’s no way I’d be surprised if he rolled them.
Yu Darvish, TEX (at LAA) – Baseball’s 1 (Kersh) and 1a (Darvish go on the same day (and you could make the case that Felix is 1b)! With easier matchups he and Kershaw would take the top two spots, but Shields against Minnesota and Hernandez against Toronto are still juicier.
Edwin Jackson, CHC (at PHI) – Jackson’s skills have pointed toward a much better ERA all season long, but it’s finally starting to show up. He had a 1.83 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in six July starts with 22 Ks and a 3.7 K/BB ratio in 34.3 IP. A bout with Philly gives him a good chance to stay hot. Their .302 wOBA is 22nd for the year and even worse at .282 since July 1st (26th).
Tyler Chatwood, COL (at NYM) – Chatwood is coming off of his worst start of the season (2.3 IP/7 ER at ATL), but he’d been brilliant to date before that (2.48 ERA) and I’m not dissuaded by one start against a solid offense. The Mets have a meager .297 wOBA against righties (26th) and that was with David Wright. I love Chatwood for a bounce back start here.
Bud Norris, BAL (at SD) – Quite a soft landing for the newest Oriole as Norris first faces his former teammates (and goes 6 IP/2 ER against them) and then gets a trip to San Diego giving him a great chance to stay hot and post three straight quality starts. The Padres have baseball’s worst offense against righties at home with a terrible .278 wOBA.
Mat Latos, CIN (v. OAK) – After giving up 10 runs in 10 innings heading into the break, Latos emerged and posted a 2.41 ERA over his first three starts out of the break and appears to be back on track now. The A’s are about league average against righties on the season, but they have a .286 wOBA (25th) against them since July 1st.
Jeff Locke, PIT (v. MIA) – I don’t necessarily think the bottom is going to fall out on Locke, but it’s definitely wobbly and by season’s end his ERA will jump up. I just don’t think it happens here. He gave the Marlins 14 baserunners two starts ago and they couldn’t capitalize with more than two runs during his 6.7 IP. Last time out he gave the Cardinals 11 baserunners in four innings and they ran him with four runs. The Marlins are baseball’s second-worst team against lefties with a .282 wOBA so I’m sticking on the Locke train for at least another start. He’s got at COL and v. ARI after that, though, so don’t invest long-term.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (at CWS) / Chris Sale, CWS (v. NYY) – Two superstuds squaring off with the only real downside being that they are going head-to-head and the two inept offenses are going to have their hands full trying to muster so much as a run. The White Sox have a .299 wOBA against righties (24th) while the Yankees have a paltry .291 against lefties (22nd). Kuroda allowed runs in just one of his five July outings (0.55 ERA in 33 IP) while Sale was on a roll before getting knocked around by the Indians (5 IP/5 ER) his last time out.
Julio Teheran, ATL (at WAS) – Teheran is just 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP against the Nats in three starts this season, but he has a 26% K rate and 4.0 K/BB ratio in his 18 IP and the most recent outing was a quality start (6.7 IP/3 ER with 9 K). He hasn’t been smashed in any of the three, but he allowed 16 hits in the 11.3 IP over the first two elevating that WHIP. That was in April when he had a 5.08 ERA and 1.66 WHIP compared to the 2.45 ERA and 1.05 WHIP since then.
Matt Cain, SF (v. MIL) – We are starting to see the old Cain recently with back-to-back 1 ER starts in seven and eight innings, respectively, along with a 14/3 K/BB ratio in his 15 IP of work. The Brewers roughed him up for 7 ER back in April, but that was a Ryan Braun ago.
Jeremy Hellickson, TB (at ARI) – He’d been rolling before facing the Diamondbacks his last time out, but they pasted a 4.3 IP/4 ER outing on him. Their offense isn’t particularly good sitting 22nd with a .301 wOBA and even worse at 24th and .289 since July 1st. I think he exacts some revenge this time around and gets back on track.
Jenrry Mejia, NYM (v. COL) – Mejia’s looked great in his first two starts of the season with a 2.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 11/1 K/BB in 13 IP at WAS and MIA. He gets a nice shot at staying hot by getting his first home start against a Rockies team that hasn’t hit well on the road since April. They have a .309 wOBA on the road for the season, but just a .293 since May 1st. I trust Chatwood more and this Rockies offense is still markedly better on paper even outside of Coors so I’m keeping Mejia down here while Chatwood gets a top tier billing.
Wade Miley, ARI (v. TB) – He continues to roll after 6.3 scoreless IP against the Rays (baseball’s top team against lefties, mind you) his last time out. He now has a 2.44 ERA in the last two months spanning 70 IP. He went 4-1 in six July starts bookending the month with scoreless outings en route to a 1.59 ERA. Despite the excellent work of late and his last time out, I’m still a little hesitant to dive in against the Rays given their season-long work against southpaws.
Garrett Richards, LAA (v. TEX) – Richards has looked great in a pair of starts since returning to the rotation on July 27th allowing just two earned in 12 IP. The Rangers have been a mediocre offense this year and they took a huge hit with the loss of Nelson Cruz to his PED suspension. This is another situation where I like the arm and even the matchup from an offense-standpoint, but his counterpart on the mound make it tough to back him too heavily. He makes for a decent secondary option where notching a win won’t be so crucial.
Wily Peralta, MIL (at SF) – Peralta got into the same series that I mentioned with Cain and he, too, was blasted. The Giants hung a 4 IP/5 ER outing on him on April 16th. He’d been really sharp for 10 starts leading into his last two which were stinkers. One was in Colorado which can be excused, but the Cubs one was a little more frustrating, even after accounting for the fact that they aren’t too bad offensively. The Giants aren’t too good with the bats as their .305 wOBA ranks 19th against righties. They’ve been at exactly the same rate and rank since July 1st, too. Peralta has a nice opportunity to rebound here.
Henderson Alvarez, MIA (at PIT) – Interesting that Alvarez will face Locke in this matchup considering how similar they are with their approach. Neither misses a ton of bats and both generate a ton of groundballs, but Alvarez has fewer strikeouts and groundballs so I’m still skeptical of that 2.61 ERA/1.18 WHIP combo. That said he’s got the Pirates and their .301 wOBA against righties (24th) so he’s still a worthwhile buy given his low cost everywhere.
USE CAUTION:
Gio Gonzalez, WAS (v. ATL) – Gonzalez has been blasted two out of the three times he’s faced the Braves this year, though the best was the most recent (June 1st). He has a composite 7.31 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in his 16 IP, but the 26% K rate is at least a silver lining. That June 1st start saw him toss a 7 IP/1 ER gem with seven of those strikeouts and just three hits allowed.
In fact, that start began a 10-start run of 2.06 ERA that was shattered in his most recent outing against Detroit when he allowed 10 ER in 3.3 IP. Gonzalez isn’t in this tier because of that start, though, but rather because the Braves have been sharp against him and they have a good record against lefties this season with a .310 wOBA that ranks 10 and an even-better .333 wOBA that is seventh in the league since July 1st.
Justin Verlander, DET (at CLE) / Justin Masterson, CLE (v. DET) – On paper this looks like a great matchup, but both Justins have been smashed by the opposing team in their matchups this year. Verlander has a 5.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in three starts against CLE while Masterson has a 7.71 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his two outings against DET. Verlander’s 27% K rate and 2.8 K/BB portend the potential for some success while Masterson 18% K rate and 1.4 K/BB aren’t particularly special. Of course that difference is made up a bit by Masterson pitching much better of late than JV (last 5: 2.76 to 5.12 in ERA). This whole game feels like a stay-away.
Kyle Kendrick, PHI (v. CHC) – Kendrick suffered through a miserable July (7.36 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) as he took it on the chin three times in his five starts. He allowed a lot of hits (43 in 41 IP) during June so it seemed like trouble was brewing if he kept it up and then he allowed 38 in his 25.7 IP. Of course this is always the danger with someone like Kendrick who doesn’t overpower teams. He’s allowed eight or more hits in 11 of his 22 starts. The perception of the Cubs is much lower because of their overall record (49-62), but they are just around average against righties with a .306 wOBA.
Dan Straily, OAK (at CIN) – There has been too much inconsistency from Straily this year and he’s struggled lately with back-to-back sub-five inning outings against LAA and TOR. Now the flyball-heavy youngster heads to the offense-heavy Great American Ballpark and we could see a third-straight rough outing. The Reds are actually a bit better on the road wOBA-wise, but they hit more home runs in Cincy.
Joe Kelly, STL (v. LAD) – He’s been pitching well of late, but if the Dodgers offense wasn’t enough to dissuade you then his facing Kershaw and all-but-guaranteeing he doesn’t get a win should push you hard enough to look elsewhere.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Steven Wright, BOS (at HOU) – The only reason he is ahead of his opponent, Lyles, is because Houston is worse on offense, but I want nothing to do with either of ‘em.
Jordan Lyles, HOU (v. BOS) – Hats off to Brett Oberholtzer for his excellent seven-shutout innings against Boston on Monday, but as the Cardinals showed last week, the best offenses don’t stay down long and it’s big trouble for the guy on the receiving end. There’s just too much risk here.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
- Edinson Volquez, SD (v. BAL)
- Josh Johnson, TOR (at SEA)
- Andrew Albers, MIN (at KC)
ADVANCED METRICS: August 6th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Alvarez | 0.354 | 4.40 | 0.268 | 1.52 | 0.242 | 0.695 | 0.282 | 3.01 | 0.248 | 87.67 | 66.7% | ||
| Locke | 0.315 | 2.57 | 0.282 | 2.37 | 0.226 | 0.642 | 0.251 | 3.72 | 0.210 | 93.90 | 59.0% | ||
| Teheran | 0.338 | 4.12 | 0.290 | 2.09 | 0.251 | 0.708 | 0.299 | 3.61 | 0.251 | 96.14 | 67.3% | ||
| Gonzalez | 0.205 | 2.04 | 0.336 | 4.15 | 0.245 | 0.712 | 0.279 | 3.56 | 0.222 | 104.73 | 62.1% | ||
| Jackson | 0.330 | 5.43 | 0.318 | 4.07 | 0.255 | 0.698 | 0.309 | 3.45 | 0.258 | 93.71 | 60.6% | ||
| Kendrick | 0.302 | 3.95 | 0.344 | 4.65 | 0.245 | 0.708 | 0.293 | 3.90 | 0.267 | 96.86 | 64.9% | ||
| Verlander | 0.316 | 3.16 | 0.334 | 4.83 | 0.254 | 0.736 | 0.328 | 3.41 | 0.262 | 107.22 | 65.5% | ||
| Masterson | 0.315 | 3.91 | 0.234 | 2.57 | 0.283 | 0.780 | 0.280 | 3.25 | 0.215 | 104.87 | 63.4% | ||
| Chatwood | 0.331 | 2.92 | 0.317 | 3.40 | 0.235 | 0.679 | 0.326 | 3.33 | 0.275 | 89.93 | 61.1% | ||
| Mejia | 0.231 | 1.59 | 0.318 | 2.45 | 0.268 | 0.762 | 0.308 | 2.58 | 0.255 | 96.50 | 65.3% | ||
| Straily | 0.322 | 5.16 | 0.285 | 3.81 | 0.250 | 0.722 | 0.268 | 3.91 | 0.232 | 88.71 | 65.7% | ||
| Latos | 0.344 | 3.58 | 0.289 | 3.29 | 0.245 | 0.708 | 0.316 | 3.02 | 0.248 | 100.14 | 66.0% | ||
| Kuroda | 0.301 | 2.69 | 0.244 | 2.09 | 0.250 | 0.683 | 0.255 | 3.38 | 0.224 | 97.95 | 63.8% | ||
| Sale | 0.173 | 2.03 | 0.305 | 3.17 | 0.237 | 0.649 | 0.287 | 2.89 | 0.221 | 108.60 | 67.1% | ||
| Wright | 0.355 | 3.00 | 0.195 | 5.40 | 0.231 | 0.662 | 0.306 | 3.28 | 0.244 | 68.67 | 62.1% | ||
| Lyles | 0.346 | 5.11 | 0.372 | 4.76 | 0.284 | 0.814 | 0.323 | 3.98 | 0.284 | 95.53 | 61.2% | ||
| Albers | 0.262 | 0.691 | |||||||||||
| Shields | 0.290 | 2.88 | 0.321 | 3.39 | 0.238 | 0.691 | 0.296 | 3.63 | 0.250 | 107.91 | 62.6% | ||
| Kershaw | 0.180 | 1.24 | 0.247 | 2.07 | 0.245 | 0.695 | 0.232 | 2.46 | 0.182 | 106.65 | 65.9% | ||
| Kelly | 0.301 | 3.72 | 0.341 | 2.53 | 0.264 | 0.717 | 0.293 | 4.28 | 0.258 | 35.69 | 62.3% | ||
| Hellickson | 0.332 | 4.50 | 0.305 | 4.77 | 0.253 | 0.707 | 0.295 | 3.90 | 0.257 | 97.64 | 64.3% | ||
| Miley | 0.347 | 4.34 | 0.330 | 3.54 | 0.285 | 0.779 | 0.296 | 4.20 | 0.260 | 97.36 | 63.0% | ||
| Darvish | 0.294 | 2.67 | 0.230 | 2.67 | 0.276 | 0.771 | 0.258 | 3.00 | 0.187 | 109.29 | 63.6% | ||
| Richards | 0.303 | 3.61 | 0.304 | 5.15 | 0.260 | 0.740 | 0.283 | 3.52 | 0.246 | 36.31 | 62.4% | ||
| Johnson | 0.342 | 4.89 | 0.446 | 9.30 | 0.253 | 0.744 | 0.354 | 4.77 | 0.300 | 92.27 | 61.6% | ||
| Hernandez | 0.285 | 2.57 | 0.278 | 2.00 | 0.253 | 0.749 | 0.307 | 2.44 | 0.235 | 103.96 | 64.5% | ||
| Norris | 0.376 | 5.25 | 0.280 | 2.41 | 0.242 | 0.672 | 0.312 | 3.95 | 0.270 | 98.14 | 64.2% | ||
| Volquez | 0.366 | 6.02 | 0.336 | 5.14 | 0.274 | 0.785 | 0.327 | 4.01 | 0.276 | 96.70 | 60.7% | ||
| Peralta | 0.366 | 4.48 | 0.328 | 4.72 | 0.265 | 0.709 | 0.295 | 4.32 | 0.265 | 91.35 | 61.3% | ||
| Cain | 0.307 | 4.25 | 0.301 | 4.90 | 0.251 | 0.709 | 0.261 | 3.87 | 0.222 | 98.18 | 63.7% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 6th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window