Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 6th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Despaigne | SDP | MIN | 43.2 | 2.68 | 4.84 | 1.19 | 100.0% | 12.9% | 9.5% | 0.41 | 1.60 |
| Correia | MIN | SDP | 123.1 | 4.89 | 4.93 | 1.48 | 45.0% | 10.6% | 5.7% | 0.95 | 1.04 |
| Tepesch | TEX | CWS | 67 | 4.84 | 4.91 | 1.39 | 27.3% | 12.8% | 8.0% | 1.48 | 1.01 |
| Sale | CWS | TEX | 116 | 2.09 | 2.60 | 0.90 | 64.3% | 28.8% | 4.5% | 0.47 | 1.13 |
| Hellickson | TBR | OAK | 13.2 | 3.29 | 4.59 | 1.61 | 18.0% | 8.2% | 1.32 | 0.56 | |
| Gray | OAK | TBR | 146 | 2.59 | 3.48 | 1.14 | 60.0% | 21.4% | 8.2% | 0.49 | 2.17 |
| Teheran | ATL | SEA | 157.1 | 2.69 | 3.46 | 1.04 | 70.0% | 22.5% | 5.4% | 0.92 | 0.84 |
| Young | SEA | ATL | 129.2 | 3.19 | 5.31 | 1.13 | 47.4% | 15.0% | 8.2% | 1.32 | 0.39 |
| Peacock | HOU | PHI | 87.2 | 4.93 | 4.55 | 1.59 | 28.6% | 19.7% | 12.3% | 1.33 | 0.99 |
| Buchanan | PHI | HOU | 59.1 | 4.40 | 4.26 | 1.28 | 20.0% | 15.4% | 6.7% | 1.37 | 1.40 |
| Niese | NYM | WAS | 122.1 | 3.24 | 3.89 | 1.26 | 41.2% | 17.1% | 6.2% | 0.66 | 1.65 |
| Fister | WAS | NYM | 97.1 | 2.68 | 3.92 | 1.09 | 58.3% | 15.0% | 3.3% | 1.02 | 1.38 |
| Verlander | DET | NYY | 150.2 | 4.66 | 4.37 | 1.42 | 35.0% | 16.7% | 7.9% | 0.84 | 1.06 |
| Capuano | NYY | DET | 44 | 4.50 | 4.01 | 1.50 | 19.1% | 9.6% | 0.61 | 1.11 | |
| Koehler | MIA | PIT | 131.1 | 3.70 | 4.26 | 1.22 | 52.6% | 18.2% | 8.5% | 0.75 | 1.11 |
| Locke | PIT | MIA | 74 | 3.77 | 3.79 | 1.19 | 66.7% | 16.2% | 4.3% | 1.22 | 1.61 |
| Chen | BAL | TOR | 124.1 | 3.76 | 3.83 | 1.24 | 31.6% | 17.4% | 4.1% | 1.30 | 1.15 |
| Hutchison | TOR | BAL | 122.2 | 4.62 | 3.93 | 1.35 | 31.6% | 20.9% | 7.7% | 1.03 | 0.80 |
| Salazar | CLE | CIN | 58.2 | 4.45 | 3.62 | 1.52 | 12.5% | 24.5% | 8.8% | 1.23 | 0.78 |
| Latos | CIN | CLE | 58.2 | 3.07 | 4.45 | 0.94 | 66.7% | 16.0% | 6.5% | 0.46 | 0.77 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | MIL | 127.2 | 3.74 | 3.84 | 1.28 | 52.6% | 19.7% | 6.3% | 0.63 | 1.02 |
| Gallardo | MIL | SFG | 135.2 | 3.38 | 3.61 | 1.19 | 50.0% | 18.7% | 6.2% | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Kelly | BOS | STL | 35 | 4.37 | 3.73 | 1.46 | 40.0% | 16.0% | 6.4% | 0.77 | 2.52 |
| Miller | STL | BOS | 121.2 | 4.14 | 4.87 | 1.39 | 21.1% | 15.6% | 10.6% | 1.11 | 1.02 |
| Arrieta | CHC | COL | 98 | 2.11 | 2.94 | 0.99 | 50.0% | 27.4% | 7.2% | 0.18 | 1.56 |
| Lyles | COL | CHC | 69 | 3.52 | 4.01 | 1.30 | 58.3% | 16.8% | 8.9% | 0.65 | 2.52 |
| Ventura | KCR | ARI | 121 | 3.50 | 3.76 | 1.31 | 44.4% | 19.7% | 7.5% | 0.97 | 1.63 |
| Collmenter | ARI | KCR | 119.1 | 4.07 | 4.38 | 1.30 | 29.4% | 15.5% | 6.2% | 1.06 | 0.91 |
| Haren | LAD | LAA | 126.2 | 4.76 | 3.88 | 1.34 | 30.0% | 17.3% | 5.1% | 1.56 | 1.29 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | LAD | 81.1 | 4.09 | 3.18 | 1.24 | 44.4% | 23.2% | 4.5% | 1.22 | 1.00 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Yordano Ventura KC (at ARI) – With back-to-back 7 K outings, perhaps his strikeout issues are behind him? He had just 35 in 59 IP (5.3 K9) before these last two starts and that included a 1.7 IP/3 K relief stint. The D’backs are likely morphing into a team to pick on with Paul Goldschmidt out the rest of the way. They weren’t that good before he got hurt and he was far & away their best player. They sat league average versus righties (and lefties) with Goldy and his departure drops them substantially, leaving Mark Trumbo and Miguel Montero as the only real threats.
Mat Latos CIN (at CLE) – Latos is still getting himself in gear as this is only his 10th start of the season. His strikeouts are way down, but he’s still holding a solid 2.5 K:BB ratio along with a great 3.07 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. I expect the strikeouts to start ticking upward as he logs more innings. Latos has never had a platoon split to speak of and he’s been getting better against lefties each of the last three years (including a .507 OPS this year) so he shouldn’t be as susceptible to Cleveland’s righty-smashing ways.
Doug Fister WAS (v. NYM) – It’s a light night in terms of big arms which earns Fister a boost in ranking. His ERA and WHIP are definitely gold territory, but the painfully low strikeout totals (5.5 K9) usually bump him down to the silver section with a full slate of games. Where he and Latos differ is that I definitely believe Latos’ Ks are due for a jump up, while Fister can and has had success with lowered strikeout rates.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Jake Arrieta CHC (at COL) – The venue bumps Arrieta down a rung (as it does with just about anyone because your night can go south so quickly in Coors). However, the Rockies aren’t the threat they once were with both Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez on the shelf (though the latter may return in time to face Arrieta). Arrieta is enjoying a breakout season and handling all comers both home and away and his price now reflects that at most outlets. Given the elevated price and tougher-than-normal venue, Arrieta isn’t exactly my top choice, but I’m definitely not automatically avoiding him, either.
Yovani Gallardo MIL (v. SF) – Gallardo is quietly having a really strong season with a 3.38 ERA in 135.7 IP, including 16.7 straight scoreless IP spanning two full starts and the tail end of a third. He has a shiny 2.63 ERA over his last 10 starts with 53 Ks and a 5.3 K:BB ratio in 65 IP. He’s gone at least 6 IP in eight of the 10, while logging 7+ IP in six of them. The Giants are hitting a bit better of late, but they aren’t close to a team you should fear with your daily gaming pitchers.
Ryan Vogelsong SF (at MIL) – In fact, we could see a nice duel in Milwaukee if Vogelsong continues his recent form. He has an impressive 3.38 ERA in his last seven with a filthy 35/5 K:BB ratio in 42.7 IP, including a complete game effort against NYM his last time out (9 IP/1 ER). His 7.5 K9 is just over the 7.3 K9 league average meaning he will mix in a big strikeout game every once in a while (9 is his season high; has a couple 8s, too), but he usually offers five or six in six or seven innings of work.
Jon Niese NYM (at WAS) – Niese is essentially a Fister-lite right now. His strikeouts are a touch higher, but his ratios aren’t quite as electric. He is just solid and steady which has value in this game. A lot of times we are hoping for that guy who can go off for a huge complete game shutout, but sometimes you want to remove some of the volatility and just bank a solid 6-7 IP/2-3 ER at a fair price and Niese can give you that. The Nats aren’t hitting lefties too well lately with a .617 OPS against them since the break (.722 for the season). Niese has owned them throughout his career with a 2.83 ERA in eight starts, though his most recent was a modest 4 IP/3 ER showing back on May 16th.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (v. LAD) – Shoemaker continues to cut into the damage of that ugly 4 IP/8 ER massacre in KC. He has a 3.29 ERA in his last five outings (one was a 3.7 IP relief appearance) with 25 Ks and just three walks in 27.3 IP. That includes outings against Toronto, Baltimore, and Detroit, so the Dodgers are unlikely to scare him. They have been one of the better offenses against righties this year, but they are averaging fewer than four runs per game since July 1st after a 4.2 R/G clip in the first three months.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Danny Salazar CLE (v. CIN) – Each passing start is adding more and more confidence in Salazar. In three starts since returning to the majors, he has a 2.00 ERA with 17 Ks in 18 IP, posting three of his four biggest scores of the season. The walks aren’t completely erased (he has 3 apiece in two of the three outings), but he hasn’t allowed a homer yet after allowing eight in his first 40.7 IP (1.8 HR9). Cincy has struggled offensively with Joey Votto now out of the lineup and Jay Bruce struggling to make his normal impact. This has resulted in the 25th ranked OPS against righties on the season at .671. This includes a .737 OPS (also ranked 25th) against righty heaters, which is Salazar’s bread-and-butter. The league average is .772.
Jeff Locke PIT (v. MIA) – A barrage of homers has cut deep into Locke’s ERA, raising it nearly a full run in his last three starts. He’s allowed seven of his 10 homers in these three outings, which has included trips to Colorado and Arizona (hitter-friendly environs). He gets back home today where he has a 3.35 ERA in 40.3 IP and he faces a Miami team that has really faded offensively with .640 OPS against righties since the break (.690 on the season, ranked 16th) that checks in at 26th in the league.
Wei-Yin Chen BAL (at TOR) – Chen closed May with a 4.50 ERA through his first 10 starts. Since then he has posted a 3.12 ERA in 11 starts, allowing more than 3 ER just once and allowing 2 or fewer six different times. The Jays have struggled with southpaws this year, both home and away, posting a sub-league average .699 OPS (.713 is average) which is good for 21st in the league.
Tom Koehler MIA (at PIT) – Koehler was trounced for 7 ER in his July 7th start at Arizona, but he’s bounced back to allowed just 7 ER in his last four starts combined (2.52 ERA), albeit with a modest 16/6 K:BB ratio in 25 IP. The fact is he’s been pretty darn good this year. He’s allowed 35% of his runs in three rough starts, but has a 2.67 ERA in his other 19 starts.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Shelby Miller STL (v. BOS)
- Dan Haren LAD (at LAA)
- Chris Capuano NYY (v. DET)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Despaigne | 0.325 | 2.70 | 0.253 | 2.66 | 0.246 | 0.700 | 0.246 | 4.06 | 0.22 | 101.43 | 12.9% |
| Correia | 0.346 | 4.31 | 0.348 | 5.52 | 0.226 | 0.633 | 0.313 | 4.45 | 0.295 | 92.77 | 10.6% |
| Tepesch | 0.340 | 4.30 | 0.378 | 5.87 | 0.258 | 0.733 | 0.274 | 5.34 | 0.266 | 85.62 | 12.8% |
| Sale | 0.153 | 0.00 | 0.262 | 2.71 | 0.273 | 0.741 | 0.273 | 2.29 | 0.2 | 104.59 | 28.8% |
| Hellickson | 0.256 | 0.735 | 0.349 | 4.53 | 0.304 | 86.67 | 18.0% | ||||
| Gray | 0.268 | 2.24 | 0.267 | 3.06 | 0.252 | 0.700 | 0.269 | 3.19 | 0.217 | 101.50 | 21.4% |
| Teheran | 0.278 | 2.95 | 0.270 | 2.42 | 0.242 | 0.684 | 0.264 | 3.38 | 0.221 | 100.13 | 22.5% |
| Young | 0.337 | 3.09 | 0.256 | 3.32 | 0.241 | 0.665 | 0.219 | 4.89 | 0.214 | 93.77 | 15.0% |
| Peacock | 0.329 | 4.34 | 0.383 | 5.63 | 0.239 | 0.656 | 0.311 | 5.02 | 0.267 | 80.79 | 19.7% |
| Buchanan | 0.293 | 2.78 | 0.359 | 5.40 | 0.228 | 0.670 | 0.272 | 4.86 | 0.254 | 93.10 | 15.4% |
| Niese | 0.292 | 4.03 | 0.316 | 2.99 | 0.273 | 0.725 | 0.298 | 3.59 | 0.256 | 90.80 | 17.1% |
| Fister | 0.311 | 2.33 | 0.283 | 3.00 | 0.233 | 0.668 | 0.268 | 3.92 | 0.247 | 98.20 | 15.0% |
| Verlander | 0.302 | 3.25 | 0.376 | 6.68 | 0.247 | 0.693 | 0.310 | 4.00 | 0.27 | 108.65 | 16.7% |
| Capuano | 0.357 | 5.40 | 0.317 | 3.86 | 0.287 | 0.802 | 0.321 | 3.73 | 0.264 | 24.97 | 19.1% |
| Koehler | 0.272 | 2.73 | 0.319 | 4.68 | 0.261 | 0.742 | 0.264 | 3.94 | 0.227 | 91.14 | 18.2% |
| Locke | 0.201 | 2.50 | 0.345 | 4.18 | 0.269 | 0.716 | 0.284 | 4.18 | 0.26 | 94.00 | 16.2% |
| Chen | 0.337 | 4.02 | 0.327 | 3.68 | 0.242 | 0.698 | 0.299 | 4.15 | 0.27 | 96.43 | 17.4% |
| Hutchison | 0.349 | 5.96 | 0.302 | 2.96 | 0.256 | 0.717 | 0.307 | 3.94 | 0.257 | 93.41 | 20.9% |
| Salazar | 0.303 | 3.62 | 0.391 | 5.17 | 0.241 | 0.669 | 0.354 | 4.01 | 0.28 | 95.27 | 24.5% |
| Latos | 0.225 | 2.57 | 0.255 | 3.52 | 0.263 | 0.751 | 0.211 | 3.41 | 0.186 | 94.00 | 16.0% |
| Vogelsong | 0.334 | 3.77 | 0.308 | 3.71 | 0.258 | 0.727 | 0.314 | 3.36 | 0.26 | 95.41 | 19.7% |
| Gallardo | 0.275 | 2.44 | 0.316 | 4.11 | 0.240 | 0.675 | 0.279 | 3.89 | 0.243 | 100.95 | 18.7% |
| Kelly | 0.373 | 4.76 | 0.309 | 4.00 | 0.250 | 0.680 | 0.330 | 3.94 | 0.287 | 86.00 | 16.0% |
| Miller | 0.337 | 4.98 | 0.317 | 3.43 | 0.245 | 0.690 | 0.269 | 4.82 | 0.246 | 88.36 | 15.6% |
| Arrieta | 0.236 | 2.30 | 0.221 | 1.94 | 0.276 | 0.762 | 0.267 | 2.10 | 0.192 | 96.75 | 27.4% |
| Lyles | 0.328 | 3.12 | 0.302 | 3.93 | 0.232 | 0.665 | 0.284 | 3.92 | 0.244 | 93.83 | 16.8% |
| Ventura | 0.308 | 3.01 | 0.319 | 4.20 | 0.252 | 0.695 | 0.293 | 3.87 | 0.249 | 92.86 | 19.7% |
| Collmenter | 0.349 | 3.51 | 0.309 | 4.57 | 0.263 | 0.685 | 0.293 | 4.18 | 0.266 | 78.17 | 15.5% |
| Haren | 0.327 | 4.21 | 0.362 | 5.29 | 0.259 | 0.727 | 0.299 | 4.61 | 0.274 | 99.36 | 17.3% |
| Shoemaker | 0.359 | 4.73 | 0.297 | 3.48 | 0.267 | 0.743 | 0.323 | 3.57 | 0.268 | 70.50 | 23.2% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window