Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 10th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
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Performance and Talent Statistics: July 10th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzalez | WAS | 111.2 | 3.14 | 3.77 | 1.16 | 66.7% | 23.7% | 9.8% | 0.81 | 1.32 | |
| Lee | PHI | 131.2 | 2.73 | 3.19 | 0.98 | 61.1% | 23.2% | 4.1% | 0.62 | 1.27 | |
| Axelrod | CWS | 92.1 | 4.97 | 4.91 | 1.52 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 7.4% | 1.66 | 1.03 | |
| Porcello | DET | 93.1 | 4.82 | 3.23 | 1.26 | 29.4% | 19.1% | 4.9% | 0.96 | 2.52 | |
| Lindblom | TEX | 26.0 | 4.50 | 4.04 | 1.27 | 0.0% | 18.4% | 6.4% | 1.04 | 0.97 | |
| Chen | BAL | 47.1 | 3.04 | 4.79 | 1.20 | 37.5% | 14.4% | 6.4% | 0.57 | 0.70 | |
| Davis | KCR | 89.2 | 5.42 | 4.21 | 1.75 | 29.4% | 19.6% | 9.2% | 1.10 | 1.29 | |
| Nova | NYY | 44.0 | 4.09 | 3.07 | 1.36 | 16.7% | 25.4% | 7.4% | 0.61 | 1.93 | |
| Rogers | TOR | 65.2 | 3.84 | 4.23 | 1.36 | 42.9% | 15.1% | 7.2% | 0.82 | 1.42 | |
| Masterson | CLE | 128.2 | 3.78 | 3.39 | 1.22 | 52.6% | 24.5% | 9.2% | 0.70 | 2.06 | |
| Milone | OAK | 114.0 | 4.11 | 4.23 | 1.22 | 44.4% | 17.7% | 5.4% | 1.50 | 0.69 | |
| Liriano | PIT | 69.2 | 2.20 | 3.35 | 1.23 | 63.6% | 25.4% | 9.3% | 0.39 | 1.93 | |
| Correia | MIN | 105.1 | 4.19 | 4.43 | 1.38 | 35.3% | 12.5% | 4.7% | 1.37 | 1.34 | |
| Hellickson | TBR | 111.2 | 4.67 | 3.87 | 1.21 | 44.4% | 19.6% | 5.7% | 1.13 | 0.98 | |
| Wilson | LAA | 113.1 | 3.49 | 4.00 | 1.38 | 50.0% | 21.1% | 9.5% | 0.71 | 1.52 | |
| Samardzija | CHC | 119.1 | 3.54 | 3.45 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 24.7% | 8.4% | 0.75 | 1.60 | |
| Lyles | HOU | 74.1 | 3.87 | 4.06 | 1.37 | 46.2% | 16.2% | 6.7% | 0.61 | 1.87 | |
| Miller | STL | 99.2 | 2.80 | 3.10 | 1.07 | 47.1% | 26.8% | 6.0% | 0.81 | 0.86 | |
| Ryu | LAD | 111.2 | 2.82 | 3.96 | 1.23 | 64.7% | 19.7% | 8.1% | 0.73 | 1.56 | |
| Skaggs | ARI | 24.2 | 3.65 | 3.68 | 1.09 | 50.0% | 22.0% | 7.0% | 1.46 | 0.95 | |
| De La Rosa | COL | 104.1 | 3.19 | 4.29 | 1.28 | 55.6% | 16.5% | 8.0% | 0.43 | 1.62 | |
| Cashner | SDP | 94.1 | 3.82 | 4.07 | 1.23 | 42.9% | 15.9% | 6.7% | 0.76 | 1.69 | |
| Doubront | BOS | 92.0 | 4.11 | 4.01 | 1.45 | 38.0% | 21.6% | 10.2% | 0.78 | 1.55 | |
| Harang | SEA | 78.2 | 4.92 | 3.76 | 1.23 | 42.9% | 19.1% | 3.6% | 1.49 | 0.81 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups. Trying something a little different today with the groupings.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Shelby Miller, STL (v. HOU) – Miller’s price has fallen at most outlets and with good reason as he has a 5.55 ERA over his last five starts, but it creates a strong buying opportunity against the Astros especially since he’s coming off of a strong outing against a tough Angels lineup where he went six strong allowing just two earned on five hits and two walks with six strikeouts. The Astros have been brutal against righties all year long (654 OPS ranks 29th) and even worse recently with a 30th-ranked 606 OPS since June 1st. He is a pretty straightforward pick at the sites where his price has fallen, but sometimes the most obvious answer is also the correct one.
Felix Doubront, BOS (at SEA) – Doubront hasn’t allowed more than three earned in any of his last 10 outings posting a 2.87 ERA in 59.7 IP. His 1.24 WHIP in that same stretch is a bit high, but he’s always going to run an elevated WHIP because of his walk totals. He deserved a better fate than his 4.86 ERA a season ago and with virtually the same skills this year, he’s down to 4.11 thanks in part to a quelling of the home run issues that plagued him at times last year. The Mariners don’t hit lefties well with a 694 OPS on the season (23rd) and they strike out 23% of the time against them, the fourth-highest mark in baseball.
Ivan Nova, NYY (v. KC) – Nova is rolling since returning from the DL, albeit in just a three-game sample. He has a 2.95 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over 21.3 IP including a complete game three-hitter in his latest outing. Most impressive is the competition he’s thwarted during the stretch, toppling the Rays and the Orioles twice in a row. He also has a 22/4 K/BB over that time. While improved, the Royals are still posting just a 710 OPS since June 1st – good for 19th in the majors.
Tommy Milone, OAK (at PIT) – Milone is a heavy home-only guy as his ERA in Oakland is 3.20 compared to 4.83 this season while for his career it’s even more stark at 3.11/4.59, but yet I’m still recommending him for a road start because: PNC Park is a great pitcher’s park, Milone has been great in three of his last four road outings (the other was in TEX so you would’ve never started him there anyway), and the Pirates don’t hit lefties all that well with a 682 OPS against them this year (25th). Best yet, his price is great. In fact, it’s good enough that he still made the “best buys” even though his win probability is cut by his teammates having to face Liriano.
C.J. Wilson, LAA (at CHC) – While he will throw an occasional gem against a top team, Wilson’s numbers are built on taking advantage of the schedule when it is most favorable such as today against the Cubs. He has a 2.89 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 65.3 IP over 10 starts against teams with a sub-.500 record. He has 66 strikeouts and a 3.1 K/BB against them, too. Facing the big dogs who are .500 or better, he has a 4.31 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 48 IP (eight starts) with just 38 strikeouts and an ugly 1.5 K/BB ratio.
The Cubs, in case you’re unaware, are 40-48. Wilson will have to avoid the Soriano Storm, though. Alfonso Soriano is in the midst of one his patented hot streaks and he happens to obliterate lefties (.302/.336/.528), too, so he should be Wilson’s top concern. He is 2-for-2 with a homer and a walk against him in a remarkably limited sample. Wilson isn’t cheap, but this is a great matchup for him so if you’re going to invest big, then this is a good spot.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Francisco Liriano, PIT (v. OAK) – The sites have adjusted to Liriano. He is now one of the most expensive arms in the game which is commensurate with his amazing work through 11 starts so far this season. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 11 outings and the other two he only allowed four so it’s not like he was smashed. The A’s are a tough team with the fourth-best OPS against lefties on the year (737), but they’ve faltered since June 1st with a 664 mark that ranks 24th overall.
Jorge de la Rosa, COL (at SD) / Andrew Cashner, SD (v. COL) – Game 1 of this series was 4-2 with Tyler Chatwood throwing a gem against the Padres while Edinson Volquez was unspectacular, but then game 2 was a 2-1 battle between Jhoulys Chacin and Eric Stults with both throwing well and Stults coming away with a complete game win. Now the final game features a second straight strong matchup between DLR and Cashner with a strong chance of mirroring last night’s game.
Both pitchers are facing poor lineups as the Padres are in a huge funk and the Rockies are decimated by injuries. I quite like both arms, especially at their prices, but these pitcher duel-type games are tough to get a win from hence they fall a level to the good buys. The Padres are 1-9 in their last 10 and 5-15 in their last 20; the Rockies will be without Troy Tulowitzki and Dexter Fowler while “Carlos Gonzalez(player-profile)”:/players/Carlos_Gonzalez-10509’s status is in doubt.
Cliff Lee, PHI (v. WAS) / Gio Gonzalez, WAS (at PHI) – These are two of the most expensive arms on the board and with good reason as the southpaws are both having great seasons. Of course, we could see a 1-0 game decided late with both getting a no-decision let alone only one getting the win. The Nats face their third straight lefty and they’ve struggled against John Lannan and Cole Hamels so facing the toughest of the three doesn’t bode well for them. The Phillies fare better against lefties on the whole, but Gonzalez is rolling of late with a 2.26 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 79.7 IP over his last 12 starts including a 7 IP-2 ER-11 K outing against these Phils in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark back on June 19th.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (at ARI) – I realize he’s not a “true” rookie because he was a professional in Korea, but how is he not getting more attention for his incredible run during his debut MLB season? He has a 10-start stretch of allowing three or fewer runs and in fact, he’s only allowed three in two those 10. During the stretch he has a 2.25 ERA which includes a baseline (6 IP/3 ER) quality start against these Diamondbacks. The 1.24 WHIP is a little high and it’s because he’s given up a good number of hits, including 11 in the aforementioned start against the D’Backs, but you can’t argue with the results. I’ve mentioned it a lot lately with regards to Ryu, but the plummeting strikeout rate is a bummer given how well he started and in fact his 15% mark is part of the reason that I don’t love him at his current price range.
Jeremy Hellickson, TB (v. MIN) – He has a mixed bag of prices as some sites have caught up to his brilliant four-start stretch of 1.38 ERA while others are still judging him off of his season-long 4.67 ERA. He’s allowed just 20 hits en route to a 1.04 WHIP in 26-inning stretch as well. We are finally seeing the Hellickson we expected this season as he appears to have corrected some of the issues that plagued throughout most of the first three months. I would still pass at the sites where he’s expensive (Joust, DraftDay, StarStreet), but he’s a solid option at some of the others, most notably FanDuel and DraftKings.
Rick Porcello, DET (v. CWS) – The problem with Porcello is that when he doesn’t throw a gem, he usually gets absolutely obliterated and essentially ends your night unless you have two guys who each go 4-for-4 with a pair of homers. We know about the Angels outing where he allowed 9 ER, but he also has outings of 5, 6, and 7 ER. Of course only one of those was against a weaker opponent (5 ER v. MIN) so you probably didn’t suffer through the BAL or other LAA outing (yeah they trounced him for 7 ER the next time after hanging that 9 ER/0.7 IP on him in April). The White Sox, despite their explosion late last night, aren’t good with the 25th-ranked OPS against righties this year at 693. Only DailyJoust charges a big price on Porcello, otherwise he’s dirt cheap and thus a formidable option.
MODEST BUYS:
Jeff Samardzija, CHC (v. LAA) – Samardzija has been wobbly of late with a 4.63 ERA over his last seven, but he does have 46.7 IP in that time so he’s still averaging 6.7 per start and he has 43 Ks in that time, too. The issue has a lot of hits allowed as he’s yielded 56 in that span allowing seven-plus in six of the seven starts. The perception of the Angels is that they are bad because of their 43-46 record, but they are definitely hitting as their 5th-ranked OPS of 772 against righties shows.
Justin Masterson, CLE (v. TOR) – He has a shutout – his third this year – sandwiched around a pair of 6 ER outings, both of which came against really tough teams (BAL and DET) so I’m not sure I’d say he’s “struggling” of late given that all three results seem at least partially influenced by opponent, but the Jays are no walkover with a top 10 OPS against righties so this sets up to be more like the two duds as opposed to a repeat of his shutout against the White Sox. There are just better buys.
Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (v. TEX) – We talk about soft landings off of the disabled list when guys get to face the Astros or the Cubs, but this is the direct opposite as Chen comes off of a two-month hiatus to face the Rangers. This one is tough because I love the price and Chen is better than most realize, but Rangers are too good to mess around with here. Maybe if Chen was a strikeout guy who could mitigate some damage (3-4 ER), but he has just modest offerings there.
Tyler Skaggs, ARI (v. LAD) – Is every lefty throwing today? Skaggs was great in his return to the majors and in fact he has two scoreless outings sandwiching a pair of 5 ER outings for his season. So we’ve seen the good and we’ve seen the bad. Opponent hasn’t seemed to influence things one way or the other, either, but this is a tough matchup and you can find less risky low-dollar options.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Esmil Rogers, TOR
Jordan Lyles, HOU
Wade Davis, KC
Kevin Correia, MIN
Dylan Axelrod, CWS
Josh Lindblom, TEX
Aaron Harang, SEA
ADVANCED METRICS: July 10th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Gonzalez | 0.204 | 1.63 | 0.310 | 3.67 | 0.248 | 0.719 | 0.251 | 3.52 | 0.203 | 99.11 | 62.1% | ||
| Lee | 0.302 | 3.45 | 0.254 | 2.52 | 0.215 | 0.612 | 0.273 | 2.68 | 0.220 | 101.83 | 70.4% | ||
| Axelrod | 0.373 | 4.55 | 0.388 | 6.03 | 0.283 | 0.785 | 0.305 | 5.41 | 0.294 | 90.94 | 60.2% | ||
| Porcello | 0.336 | 4.65 | 0.287 | 4.97 | 0.249 | 0.686 | 0.314 | 3.55 | 0.270 | 84.94 | 63.9% | ||
| Lindblom | 0.381 | 5.40 | 0.158 | 2.89 | 0.277 | 0.791 | 0.291 | 3.84 | 0.255 | 57.14 | 63.0% | ||
| Chen | 0.293 | 3.65 | 0.304 | 2.86 | 0.253 | 0.705 | 0.290 | 3.58 | 0.257 | 91.13 | 65.0% | ||
| Davis | 0.388 | 6.24 | 0.375 | 4.46 | 0.245 | 0.703 | 0.383 | 4.20 | 0.318 | 90.94 | 62.7% | ||
| Nova | 0.305 | 5.09 | 0.341 | 3.10 | 0.253 | 0.685 | 0.364 | 3.14 | 0.272 | 67.22 | 64.0% | ||
| Rogers | 0.355 | 3.45 | 0.319 | 4.50 | 0.255 | 0.747 | 0.304 | 4.03 | 0.271 | 31.90 | 62.5% | ||
| Masterson | 0.331 | 4.42 | 0.234 | 2.92 | 0.250 | 0.744 | 0.293 | 3.42 | 0.227 | 98.63 | 63.9% | ||
| Milone | 0.331 | 6.56 | 0.328 | 3.51 | 0.235 | 0.683 | 0.269 | 4.46 | 0.249 | 96.39 | 64.0% | ||
| Liriano | 0.171 | 1.62 | 0.318 | 2.44 | 0.246 | 0.740 | 0.299 | 2.67 | 0.223 | 85.91 | 61.9% | ||
| Correia | 0.350 | 4.70 | 0.359 | 3.84 | 0.248 | 0.730 | 0.307 | 4.64 | 0.292 | 89.94 | 62.8% | ||
| Hellickson | 0.334 | 4.65 | 0.300 | 4.73 | 0.243 | 0.704 | 0.293 | 3.83 | 0.255 | 92.61 | 64.7% | ||
| Wilson | 0.290 | 3.63 | 0.323 | 3.47 | 0.235 | 0.705 | 0.303 | 3.62 | 0.246 | 102.22 | 63.4% | ||
| Samardzija | 0.335 | 3.76 | 0.297 | 3.46 | 0.277 | 0.771 | 0.306 | 3.26 | 0.238 | 99.44 | 63.7% | ||
| Lyles | 0.315 | 4.11 | 0.361 | 3.72 | 0.286 | 0.763 | 0.310 | 3.65 | 0.267 | 88.00 | 62.3% | ||
| Miller | 0.307 | 2.91 | 0.251 | 2.75 | 0.228 | 0.655 | 0.289 | 2.91 | 0.223 | 98.47 | 67.6% | ||
| Ryu | 0.388 | 4.26 | 0.267 | 2.41 | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.283 | 3.50 | 0.238 | 97.41 | 64.1% | ||
| Skaggs | 0.233 | 2.84 | 0.321 | 4.00 | 0.258 | 0.714 | 0.239 | 4.25 | 0.215 | 73.50 | 65.3% | ||
| De La Rosa | 0.248 | 1.31 | 0.324 | 3.78 | 0.255 | 0.724 | 0.303 | 3.39 | 0.257 | 87.11 | 61.1% | ||
| Cashner | 0.325 | 4.30 | 0.283 | 3.47 | 0.271 | 0.780 | 0.283 | 3.78 | 0.250 | 73.53 | 62.7% | ||
| Doubront | 0.357 | 3.26 | 0.329 | 4.25 | 0.237 | 0.690 | 0.319 | 3.75 | 0.257 | 94.75 | 61.2% | ||
| Harang | 0.345 | 5.92 | 0.329 | 4.02 | 0.291 | 0.837 | 0.295 | 4.16 | 0.265 | 85.57 | 65.5% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 10th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
(fancy)
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